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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Nov 04 2010 - 12:38:08 EST
Terrorism: the threat shifts to Yemen - and Africa
The Saudis tipped Britain off about last week's bomb - but as new dangers
emerge, Britain needs to cultivate new friends
* <http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/richardnortontaylor> Richard
Norton-Taylor, security editor
* <http://www.guardian.co.uk> guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 3 November
2010 20.13 GMT
Four years ago, <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/saudiarabia> Saudi Arabia
was reported by London to have threatened to stop supplying vital
intelligence to the UK about <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/al-qaida>
al-Qaida unless the <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/bae> Serious Fraud
Office dropped an investigation into a huge BAE arms deal with the country.
It transpired that Tony Blair had written a "secret and personal" letter to
Lord Goldsmith, the attorney general, demanding that he stop the
investigation. He said there was a "real and immediate risk of a collapse in
UK/Saudi security, intelligence and diplomatic co-operation". The SFO
investigation was dropped. Whether the Saudis would have carried out such a
threat is a moot point. What is clear is that MI5 and MI6 have relied on
Riyadh to foil terrorist plots.
Last week, <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/cargo-plane-bomb-plot> bombs
were placed on two planes, one landing at East Midlands airport. The CIA and
MI6 were alerted to the plot by the Saudis, according to counter-terrorist
sources. Today, the home secretary, Theresa May, described a man arrested in
Britain earlier this year as an "associate" of al-Qaida in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP).
AQAP, which is based in Yemen, has mounted a campaign against the "far
enemy" - the US and the UK. It is said to have recruited the "underpants
bomber" who allegedly tried to bring down an airliner over Detroit last
Christmas. Last year, it claimed credit for the attempted assassination of
Saudi Arabia's counterterrorism chief, Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef.
But AQAP's ultimate aim is to bring down the House of Saud. Unsurprisingly,
the Saudis are devoting huge resources to combating that group, monitoring
the border with Yemen and recruiting informants. It can be assumed that it
was through these routes that the Saudis received the intelligence that
allowed them to tip off MI6.
There is a reason why it is better, or easier, for the west's intelligence
services to rely on the local security forces rather than send in their own
officers. It is much less contentious, an experienced counter-terrorist
official observed, for the Saudis to be seen helping Yemen, a neighbouring
Muslim country, than westernerstoday. The UK can help by providing spying
kit to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with the latter also benefiting from a large
increase in aid from Andrew Mitchell's Department for International
Development as part of the government's new national security strategy.
"We will invest in conflict prevention and stopping terrorist plots
overseas," May stressed, echoing a point emphasised last week by Sir John
Sawers. In the first speech by a serving head of MI6, Sawers said: "Our
intelligence effort needs to go where the threat is."
That is no longer Afghanistan or the tribal areas of Pakistan. It has
shifted to Yemen and Somalia, and is moving to other regions of Africa.
Bombing there may have played a part. But as General Sir David Richards,
<http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/oct/29/general-sir-david-richards-chief-d
efence> the new chief of defence staff, suggested recently, bombing these
countries is hardly a good idea. In future, that means dealing with people
who live there and in neighbouring countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
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