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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Nov 04 2010 - 20:59:15 EST
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2010/1022/eg1.htm
4 - 10 November 2010
Issue No. 1022
Countdown to a showdown
It might be just a conflict between the north and south and it might
be a worse scenario with regional interventions but the future of
Sudan looks disturbing, reports Dina Ezzat
"It is not easy -- not at all. In fact it does look complicated and
actually disturbing, to tell the truth," said an informed official on
the situation of Sudan as it counts down to a crucial and
controversial referendum on the unity or separation of this largest
African state.
According to the assessment of this official and to Western and Arab
diplomats the 9 January referendum on the unity or separation of the
south of Sudan is more or less the date for the beginning of a
conflict that might seriously disturb the stability of Egypt's vital
southern neighbour -- and some add firmly that of East Africa in
general.
Officials from the southern Sudanese government say it is only a
matter of formality: do the referendum and announce independence. The
separation of the south, they insist, is the choice of the
overwhelming majority of the southerners. "Our people have suffered so
much under the rule of the north, especially the current Islamic
regime. Our people have been treated like slaves and they have the
right to be free," said one source from the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM). And if this "freedom" is not secured voluntarily then
it would be "won by war". "We fought for 20 years to push away the
north from imposing its rule on us and we are willing to fight for
another 20 years and more to push away slavery," he added.
The north and south of Sudan fought for over two decades and the war
ended with a peace agreement signed in 2005 that allowed for a
referendum on separation of the south of Sudan to be held on 9 January
2011.
Today, concerned Egyptian officials insist that the time is not right
for the referendum. "Not because we want to delay it; no, we just want
to do it the right way and we are not the only ones who say that
preparations for the referendum are incomplete," said the same
official.
The committee in charge of conducting the referendum is far from being
ready for the 9 January deadline. Meanwhile, north and south
negotiators have failed repeatedly to agree on a list of issues that
should be resolved prior to the referendum -- as stipulated in the
2005 peace agreement -- including the fate of the oil rich Abyei and
the borders between the north and south.
Without an agreement on these two matters, officials from the north
and south of Sudan agree a war is likely, as do their Egyptian, Arab,
African and Western counterparts. "They could well fight over Abyei --
the big oil reservoir," suggested a Western diplomat.
Meanwhile, the government of the south -- with considerable support
from Washington and many Nordic states, as sources suggest -- is
determined to turn down all proposals for a limited delay of a few
weeks to allow for the disagreements to be settled and for the
logistics to be completed in order to have a peaceful referendum.
And Egypt's worst fear today is that the day after the referendum
would be one of considerable tension -- to say the least.
Informed sources tell Al-Ahram Weekly that beyond the recent
skirmishes reported during the past few weeks there are signs that
cannot be ignored of war preparations. And each side has its own
supporters from within and without the region. According to the same
sources, some East African states are already mobilising troops on the
borders with Sudan "in anticipation of a breakout of violence".
"It is not just about the separation but about the economic and
political price of this separation -- not just for those in the north
and south but also for Sudan's immediate neighbours, especially
Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda," argued the Egyptian source.
For Egypt it is one thing that Sudan's other neighbours "feel
legitimately apprehensive" and it is quite another for these
neighbours to get involved in Sudan as concerned officials note.
However, according to the same officials, both scenarios are possible
and this means either a renewed Sudanese civil war or a regional war
of sorts -- especially between Eritrea and Ethiopia -- on Sudan's
border.
"Our line is clear. We don't send troops out of Egypt but we have to
carefully observe the situation," said an Egyptian diplomat. He added
that "whatever happens" Egypt would work to keep the best of relations
with both the north and south -- and hopefully work to help the north
and south steer clear of war's way "although this seems increasingly
unlikely".
The conflict between the north and south of Sudan is further
compounded with the failure of the Sudanese government to find a
peaceful settlement with the Darfur rebel groups. And according to one
well-informed African diplomat there are hardly any signs that the
situation could get better between the rebel movements and the regime
of the north. It could actually get worse, the source suggested, if
the rebels decided that they too should pursue independence or if they
thought it in their interest to join the southern state "although this
second scenario is very unlikely".
Cairo cannot turn a blind eye to the tense relations in the north
between the ruling regime and its political opposition or to the
crucial situation of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir who is faced
with an escalated legal campaign from the International Criminal Court
for crimes committed by his regime in Darfur during the past five
years.
In the latest development Egypt is not excluding a "small possibility"
of a "technical delay" that could be agreed between the UN and the
government of the south. These few weeks delay would offer "a window
of opportunity to resolve the pending issues" in order to "minimise"
the chance of the eruption of large-scale violence, according to
informed sources.
In short, Egypt seems to be getting ready for a day where the
stability, not just the unity, of Sudan would be seriously challenged.
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