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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Dec 02 2010 - 09:44:56 EST
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/exclusive-egypt-requested-delay-sudan-referendum-according-new-wikileaks-cable
EXCLUSIVE: Egypt requested delay for Sudan referendum, according to new
WikiLeaks cable
Thu, 02/12/2010 - 12:19
Egyptian officials have been pressuring the United States to delay a
referendum on South Sudanese independence, a newly-leaked US Embassy cable
has revealed.
In the October 2009 cable, obtained today by Al-Masry Al Youm and not yet
released by WikiLeaks, Egypt draws the United States’ attention to the
“fatal implications” should South Sudan choose to secede in a referendum
next January.
“The result would be the creation of a non-viable state that could threaten
Egypt's access to the Nile waters,” says an Egyptian foreign ministry
official quoted in the cable.
The official suggested that the 2011 referendum be postponed for four to six
years until the "capacity for statehood in South Sudan can be developed.”
The issue of South Sudanese secession has been a contentious one for
Egyptian officials as Sudan remains a key Egyptian ally in on-going
disputes<http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/disagreement-looms-nile-basin-meeting>with
Nile Basin countries over water shares. A divided Sudan, Egypt fears,
can compromise Egyptian water security interests and further tilt the
balance of power in favor of upstream countries who want increased control
over the Nile waters.
Ethiopia, which is at the helm of efforts to renogotiate water shares, has
recently accused<http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/ethiopia-says-it-has-evidence-egypt-supports-insurgents>Egypt
of supporting domestic Ethiopian insurgents to leverage control over
the Nile dispute, a charge that Egypt has flatly
denied<http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/egypt-amazed-ethiopias-nile-remarks>.
Ethiopia is the source of 85 percent of the Nile's river water, though Egypt
receives a lion’s share of the water according to a 1929 agreement signed
with the British government. Upstream states have criticized the agreement
as a relic of colonialism.
Contrary to what Egyptian officials stated according to the cable, Egyptian
Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said in August 2010 that Sudan's
referendum should be held in January 2011 as scheduled. His remarks came
after a meeting with the Sudanese State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Kamal
Hassan Ali.
According to the leaked cable, the Egyptian government also asked the US
government to convince Sudanese leaders of the dangers of separation and to
encourage them to advocate for unity.
More recent statements last month show some divergences between US and
Egyptian visions for Sudan. State Department spokesperson Philip Crowley
said in November that the United States had
rejected<http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/news/us-rejects-egyptian-proposal-confederated-sudan>a
suggestion by Egypt for a "confederation" between North and South
Sudan.
Crowley asserted it was up to the people of South Sudan to determine their
own fate.
On general Egyptian-African affairs, the cable goes on to say:
“The GoE [Government of Egypt] views the Horn of Africa as vital to its
national security interests. Instability in the region might result in an
increase in the flow of African refugees into Egypt, threaten Egypt's access
to Nile waters, and affect Egyptian Suez Canal revenues and security in the
Red Sea.”
The cable includes lengthy discussions about Egypt’s role in attempting to
stabilize Somalia. It confirms Egypt’s support for Somali President Shaykh
Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, head of the Transnational Federal Government (TFG), but
notes that Egypt remains “skeptical the TFG can militarily defeat Hizb
al-Islam or al-Shibaab,” two Islamist insurgent groups operating in the
southern part of the country, the latter one being affiliated with al-Qaeda.
The TFG remains the internationally recognized federal government of
Somalia. It was ousted in a 2006 military coup led by the Islamic Courts
Union (ICU), which then imposed Shari’a law. Shortly afterwards, Ethiopian
troops and African Union peacekeepers, backed by US air support, restored
power to the TFG, causing the ICU to split into smaller groups, including
al-Shibaab, which have conducted insurgency campaigns against the government
since then.
In the cable, Egyptian officials underscore their own efforts to train
Sharif’s presidential guards and their willingness to train the Somali
police and armed forces. They also recommend working with the US to
encourage Islamist leader and former Ahmed ally Shaykh Dahir Aweys--who
later became affiliated with the Hizb al-Islam insurgency--to join the TFG
and have his name removed from international terrorist lists.
For Egypt, instability in Somalia represents a threat to the Red Sea area,
where maritime shipping though the Suez Canal constitutes an important
source of state revenue.
In the cable, Egyptian officials are also expected to propose more
cooperation with USAID in the Horn of Africa to promote Egypt’s regional
interests.
“The GoE [Government of Egypt] will likely encourage the USG [United States
Government] to take the "public" lead on some issues, reflecting Egypt's
aversion to risk and fear of the consequences if these initiatives fail,”
says a US Embassy official
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