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From: mekonG@gmail.com
Date: Thu Jun 30 2011 - 00:12:24 EDT
S E C R E T ASMARA 000187
NOFORN
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/EX AND AF/E
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 TAGS: PREL, PTER, PROP, PARM, ER, SO
SUBJECT: ERITREAS FLAT DENIAL AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT
REF: ASMARA 184
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald K. McMullen for reason 1.4(d)
E-post til redaksjonen: wikileaks@aftenposten.no
--------------- THE FLAT DENIAL ---------------
1. (S/NF) Foreign Minister Osman Saleh adamantly and hotly denied
Eritrean support for radical Somali Islamists June 17 as we delivered
the Presidents letter addressed to Isaias (ref). This is the same line
weve heard from numerous other Eritrean officials both in public and
private. From a starting position that our information is correct, this
Flat Denial means the Eritrean officials are ignorant or lying.
------------------ ARE THEY IGNORANT? ------------------
2. (S/NF) It is possible that Eritrean support for Somali radicals is so
tightly held by the Office of the President and/or the Office of
National Security that only a handful of Eritrean operatives really
knows whats going on. Thus, the across-the-board denials could seem
sincere because the deniers arent in the loop and truly believe it
would not be in Eritreas interest to aid AQ-affiliated radicals.
------------ ...OR LYING? ------------
3. (S/NF) Eritrean officials are extremely disciplined in sticking to
the regimes policy line. The revealed wisdom is repeated nearly
verbatim up and down the ranks. Those who deviate from the party line
are canned, often with dire results. Our interlocutors may know or
suspect whats really going on but stick to the Flat Denial out of fear
or conviction. The streak of Eritrean superiority that permeates the
regime may lead some Eritrean officials to judge that the U.S. doesnt
really know whats going on in Somalia and that they can bluff their way
through this.
----------- HIGH STAKES -----------
4. (S/NF) Eritreas dangerous game is being played for high stakes; the
regimes ultimate goal may be to establish an anti-Ethiopian government
in Mogadishu that could eventually help dismember Ethiopia and thereby
even the strategic balance between Asmara and Addis Ababa. The potential
risks include regime-crippling sanctions or even direct action against
Eritrea in the event of a major al-Shabaab terrorist attack in the
region or beyond. Post has emphasized this latter risk to top Eritrean
officials in the context of al-Shabaabs recruitment of Americans and
the reported return of some of these American jihadis to the United
States. And yet Isaias persists, perhaps having calculated that the
potential benefits still outweigh the risks.
------------------- DELUSIONAL DICTATOR -------------------
5. (S/NF) Isaias, in a flurry of interviews with the international media
in late May, reiterated his delusional world view. For example, in a May
22 interview with VOA, Isaias said, "In our case, we would say we are
the best example of democracy and freedom of expression." In the same
interview he said allegations of Eritrean support for radical Somali
Islamists were "absurd." He added, "We dont engage in such exercises...
Tell us exactly what happened if you have evidences (sic) that everybody
has to know." Recently, Isaias also denied Eritrean support to
al-Shabaab in a private conversation with a long-term family friend who
had just traveled from Somalia.
------------------------------- DENIALS PLANTING SEEDS OF DOUBT
-------------------------------
6. (S/NF) The Flat Denial, made more plausible by the Isaias regimes
antipathy to Islamic or any other kind of politico-religious activity,
has taken root in the Eritrean population and even among some foreign
diplomats. A number of ambassadors accredited to Eritrea remain vocally
skeptical about Eritrean support to al-Shabaab and its ilk. Should the
USG and/or the international community take action against Eritrea or
Eritreans for support of radical Somali Islamists, the Flat Denial will
have to be punctured for any measures to be effective. If it is not,
Isaias will cast himself and Eritrea in the role of innocent victim
being picked on yet again by American and Ethiopian bullies. Patriotic
Eritreans will rally to the flag and Isaias shaky domestic political
position will be strengthened.
-------------------------- COUNTERING THE FLAT DENIAL
--------------------------
7. (S/NF) Given the still low (but recovering) credibility of the USG in
some quarters, simple public assertions that Eritrea is aiding radical
Somali Islamists will not change many minds. Post recommends that AF,
S/CT, and INR work with others in the intelligence community to brief
key foreign counterparts on specifics of Eritrean support for radical
Somali Islamists. Previous USG attempts to do so flopped. One skeptical
Western ambassador in Eritrea this week commented, "Are your claims of
Eritrean support for al-Shabaab like those of Saddams WMD program?"
Perhaps recent statements by Somali factional leaders themselves,
especially those who have or still do receive Eritrean support, could be
the foundation of a persuasive case. Eastern European contract pilots
who fly into Somalia could perhaps be persuaded to share their
experiences. Associates of arrested gunrunner Victor Bout may be
helpful. Eritreas Nasair, which employs foreign crewmembers, bases an
AN-76 in Bangkok and uses it for charter cargo flights in East Africa
and the Middle East. Anything stemming from Ethiopian or Djiboutian
accounts will be dismissed by skeptics as anti-Eritrea disinformation.
Reaching the Eritrean public is probably easiest via diaspora websites
like Asmarino or Assenna. Opposition-run radio and TV may also prove
useful. With IGAD, the AU, and the UN all critical of Eritreas malign
role in Somalia, the time is ripe for the USG to puncture the Flat
Denial - the Isaias regimes only response to this mounting
condemnation.
MCMULLEN
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