webmaster
© Copyright DEHAI-Eritrea OnLine, 1993-2011
All rights reserved
From: mekonG@gmail.com
Date: Fri Jul 01 2011 - 09:26:25 EDT
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000860
SIPDIS
NOFORN SIPDIS
Dokumentene
Internettstedet Wikileaks har ftt tak i mer enn 250 000 dokumenter fra
amerikanske ambassader og konsulater verden over.
Aftenposten har ftt tilgang til alle dokumentene uten noen form for
klausuler.
Dokumentene blir fortlpende vurdert som grunnlag for artikler etter de
samme redaksjonelle kriterier og etiske regler som ellers i Aftenpostens
journalistikk.
E-post til redaksjonen: wikileaks@aftenposten.no
logo
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV, PTER, KPKO, MOPS, ASEC, ER
SUBJECT: WELL-CONNECTED ERITREAN TALKS OF ERITREAS MILITARY PLANNING
Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Poloff met October 24 with a well-connected
Eritrean-American, and regular contact, who passed second-hand
information on the Government of the State of Eritreas (GSE) war
planning efforts and military strategy. According to him, the GSE
anticipates that war with Ethiopia is imminent and has constructed a
military strategy that will result in most of the war occurring within
Ethiopian territory with Eritrea utilizing a defensive approach to
protect Assab and Asmara. He also reported that the GSE has discussed
plans for surreptitious attacks on U.S. interests in the region. END
SUMMARY.
2. (S/NF) COMMENT ON SOURCE: The local contact is a [TEXT REMOVED BY
AFTENPOSTEN]. Over the past year, Poloff has met with him many times and
discussed domestic and regional issues. His information has consistently
been accurate and insightful. He has a clear understanding of the
operations of the Eritrean military forces, and has alluded on several
occasions to relationships with several high-ranking military officials,
including the Minister of Defense Sebhat Efrem, and with other GSE
Ministers, such as Minister of Justice Fowsiya Hashim. He has admitted
to Poloff ties to the Eritrean opposition, in particular to having a
close relationship with [TEXT REMOVED BY AFTENPOSTEN]. He acknowledges
he desires the end of President Isaias rule and shared information with
Poloff with the full knowledge it would be disseminated within the U.S.
government. He did not name any of his sources. END COMMENT.
2. (S) In a 10/24 meeting and subsequent meeting on 10/31, the contact
told Poloff that the GSE anticipates that war with Ethiopia is
inevitable and will happen in the near future, although speculated that
December or January seemed more likely. The contact believes the GSE,
namely President Isaias, is overconfident in his preparation, equipment
and capabilities and as such, President Isaias would initiate a
conflict. The contact alternatively noted, though, that with tensions
being high on the border, a misunderstanding could kick off a military
engagement. With the expectation that war with Ethiopia is inevitable,
the GSE has prepared a four-part military strategy. First, the GSE is
building up troop and munitions to protect the port of Assab. Second,
the GSE is building up troops in the Debub region of Eritrea, directly
south of Asmara between Adi Keyh and Mendefera as this is the easiest
land approach to Asmara. The GSE will intensify its defense of this area
in order to prevent the Ethiopians from taking Asmara. Third, the GSE
would allow the Ethiopians to enter Eritrea on the western border, just
west of Badme. According to the contact, in this scenario, the GSE plans
to throw the twelfth grade students studying at Sawa (who have a limited
amount of military training and are not soldiers) at the invading
Ethiopian forces in order to slow them down, i.e. essentially using the
students as human shields. The GSE anticipates that an Ethiopian attack
from the west would not be successful, and would prove costly in terms
of time and soldiers. Even if successful, the Ethiopians would face a
difficult approach to Asmara from the west with its vertical ascension
of more than 2000 meters. Fourth, the GSE plans to enlist the support of
Ethiopian opposition groups in the Tigre, Oromiya and the Ogaden regions
of Ethiopia ) for example, the Oromiya Liberation Front (OLF), the
Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) ) to initiate guerilla activity
within Ethiopia, and thereby create multiple demands on Ethiopian
military resources. In addition, the contact observed that should the
Ethiopians be successful in an invasion of Eritrea, President Isaias and
his supporters would revert to guerilla warfare and return to the field,
with groups of his supporters scattered throughout Eritrea engaging in
insurgent actions.
3. (S) The contact also stated that the GSE has engaged in discussions
about striking U.S. interests in the region; however Minister of
Defense, Sebhat Efrem has managed to dissuade others from initiating
serious and detailed planning of any attack. According to the contact,
the GSE was exploring the possibility of conducting a covert,
guerilla-style action south of the Hamish Islands in the Red Sea, such
as targeting a U.S. vessel traveling through the southern Red Sea. Upon
completion of the covert mission, the GSE would disavow any knowledge or
responsibility for the act and would seek to blame Al-Qaeda or other
terrorist networks operating in Yemen or Somalia. Motivation for this
act by the GSE would be to garner a personal victory for President
Isaias in his fight against the U.S. According to the contact, the act
would be merely vindictive and one to show that the little guy can take
on the superpower. When asked if the GSE planned to trumpet its actions
to others in the region in an attempt to inflate its regional
importance, the contact speculated it was a possibility. The contact
alleged that while some in the GSE supported such an action, Minister of
Defense Sebhat Efrem urged caution, observing that the USG would respond
forcefully to such an incident if GSE involvement became known. The
contact stated that any formal planning for such an attack had been
halted, although, he added that hard-line elements within President
Isaias regime could be continuing private discussions about such an
attack.
4. (S) In addition to confirming the GSEs continuing (and known) support
for the ONLF and the OLF, the contact also asserted that the rumors of
GSE material support to the Tamil Tigers are true. According to the
contact, the relationship has been ongoing for several years and Yemane
Ghebreab, Head of Political Affairs for the the Peoples Front for
Democracy and Justice - Eritreas sole political party - has served as
the chief GSE official on this issue. When asked, the contact shared
that nearly 10 years ago, in Asmara, the contact and a friend ran into
Yemane and several representatives of the Tamil Tigers in a public
setting. Yemane introduced the Sri Lankans as representatives of the
Tamil Tigers. When the friend asked Yemane why he was with Tamil Tigers
representatives, Yemane replied "mind your own business."
5. (S/NF) Comment: Post notes that we are unable to independently
corroborate much of what the Eritrean-American reported. As to the
military planning, the UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) has
observed over the past few months troop rotations and movements in Assab
in Sector East and in the Sector Central of the Temporary Security Zone
(TSZ). On the allegation of GSE discussions about targeting U.S.
interests in the region, this is the first and only allegation to date
that post has heard of the GSE holding such discussions. As post does
not know the context of the meeting from the contact, if the allegation
is true, the discussions may indicate only hypothetical wargaming on the
part of the GSE leadership. Post cannot dismiss the possibility though
that more extremist, anti-U.S. elements in the GSE might conceive these
actions to be in Eritreas national interest, however foolhardy. End
Comment. MCINTYRE
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----