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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Aug 01 2011 - 09:43:39 EDT
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/07/29/118772/for-sudans-bashir-ending-war-hasnt.html
Posted on Friday, July 29, 2011
Ending civil war hasn't worked out like Sudan had hoped
JUBA, South Sudan — Nearly a month after its breakup with South Sudan, the
government of Sudan has seen none of the benefits that it thought would flow
from its agreement to end decades of civil war. Instead, the breakup has
thrown President Omar al Bashir's regime into disarray.
Far from reaping peace and development for overseeing the partition of his
country, Bashir now controls a smaller, weaker version of Sudan besieged by
a uniting rebel front and a collapsing economy.
The U.S. government hasn't lifted sanctions imposed on Sudan as a state
sponsor of terrorism, one of the promises that allowed both the Bush and
Obama administrations to broker and then shepherd the peace agreement that
led to South Sudan's independence.
Making matters worse, Sudan's finance minister estimates that the country
faces a 36 percent future drop in revenues because of the loss of South
Sudan's oilfields.
With the walls seemingly crumbling around them, the Sudanese military is
taking an increasingly prominent role in decision-making, shunting aside
civilian politicians that it blames for the country's slide.
Bashir, who took power in a military coup in 1989, is still in power, and
there has been no official change in his regime makeup. But his diverse
governing coalition — composed of Islamists, the military, politicians and
businessmen — is severely strained.
Increasingly, whether by force or volition, Bashir seems to be marching to
the military's tune.
Western and African diplomats — one of whom described recent developments as
a "military coup" — fear such a power bid will only lead to more chaos and
instability in the troubled north African nation.
One African official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of
the situation, said that military leaders now sit in on his meetings with
Bashir and even brief the participants beforehand on what the president will
say — as if dictating Bashir's talking points.
A Western diplomat, who wasn't authorized to be quoted on the subject, said
that military leaders now are supervising discussions that used to be held
only with civilian political officials. The military also is accompanying
ruling party officials in ongoing negotiations with South Sudan over
disputed borders and other issues.
"I don't see that there is an internal coup per se at the moment, but there
is absolutely no doubt that the army is disenfranchised and they are not
happy," said Fouad Hikmat, a Sudan analyst for the International Crisis
Group, a research agency.
"The situation is very tense. Very tense," Hikmat said.
The internal troubles intensified about a month before South Sudan formally
seceded on July 9. Bashir miscalculated in attempting to forcibly disarm a
rebel group in Sudan's South Kordofan state that was aligned with South
Sudan's guerrilla movement-turned-ruling party, the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement, or SPLM.
Bashir underestimated the rebels' strength and the campaign in the Nuba
Mountains quickly disintegrated into a bloodbath. As the SPLM-aligned rebels
resisted and eventually gained ground, Sudanese forces and pro-government
Arab militias expanded their campaign and began attacking and bombing Nuba
civilians, who are ethnically African.
Reeling from the unexpected losses, and facing Western denunciations for
atrocities against the Nuba, Bashir's National Congress Party signed a deal
in late June to recognize the northern chapter of the SPLM — which is now
structurally separate from its sister party that governs South Sudan — as a
legitimate political party.
The deal angered the military and Islamist hardliners in Sudan's capital,
Khartoum, who criticized it as capitulation. Bashir soon denounced the
agreement himself, a turn of events that many observers found especially
confounding since the accord was negotiated by the regime's resident
hardliner, Nafie Ali Nafie, Bashir's party deputy.
Ever since, it has been unclear who is really in charge.
Andrew Natsios, a Georgetown University professor, says a soft military coup
wouldn't surprise him — since the same thing almost happened when he served
as special envoy to Sudan under President George W. Bush in the late 2000s.
In early 2007, Natsios said, Bashir's party was facing growing international
pressure over the humanitarian crisis in the western Darfur region. A group
of senior generals urged Bashir to stage an internal coup of sorts, purging
the party's leadership and putting the generals in charge of the government.
"While Bashir rejected the advice then, he may have taken it now," Natsios
said.
A military takeover in Sudan would likely take a different route than the
revolutions this year in nearby Egypt and Tunisia, which were prompted by
popular uprisings rather than ruling party disintegration.
Analysts say that the Sudanese military and civilian leadership has two
options: agree to political reforms and share political power, or hunker
down in siege mode and try to contain the armed threats.
So far, the latter approach seems ascendant.
As the regime falters, the nation's many far-flung rebel groups are moving
to consolidate.
The strongest rebel group in Darfur, the Justice and Equality Movement, has
begun fighting alongside the SPLM rebels in the Nuba Mountains in what
opposition forces hope could be the beginning of a wider rebel alliance.
That could bind anti-government forces stretching from Sudan's western
border with Chad, through the southern states of South Kordofan and Blue
Nile, all the way to the eastern border with Eritrea.
Talks are already under way over a "grand coalition" that would encompass
the armed rebels and Khartoum's weak political opposition. One source
involved in the talks, who didn't want to be named because of the
confidential nature of the discussions, said that the various groups are
already dividing up leadership positions in a potential new alliance.
It's unclear how durable such an alliance would prove, given the vast
geographical distance and the diverse set of ideologies and egos involved.
But it's clear that anti-Bashir forces all are smelling blood.
Malik Agar, chair of the SPLM's northern wing and governor of Blue Nile
state, said that it was "quite natural" for the various movements to
coordinate their efforts. But he said that Bashir could still avert more
war.
"We are still at the (negotiating) table," Agar said. "When they come back
to the table, they will find us there."
*(Boswell is a McClatchy special correspondent. His reporting from Sudan is
supported in part by Humanity United, a California-based foundation that
focuses on human rights issues.)*
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