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From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Fri Aug 26 2011 - 08:33:18 EDT
Ethiopia Aims to Press Gains Against Eritrea in Somalia
August 26, 2011 | 0054 GMT
Summary
The East African Inter-Governmental Authority on Development concluded its
meeting in Addis Ababa on Aug. 25, ahead of a scheduled African Union
meeting Aug. 26 during which Ethiopia’s prime minister has promised to
propose additional security assistance for Somalia’s Transitional Federal
Government (TFG). The assistance is intended to erode jihadist group al
Shabaab’s already-weakened position in the country and ensure the obedience
of the TFG — of which Addis Ababa is the primary backer — while also
limiting the ability of rival Eritrea to assist al Shabaab and thus generate
a security threat along Ethiopia’s border.
Analysis
Developments in Somalia were the main topic of discussion during a two-day
meeting of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that
concluded Aug. 25 in Addis Ababa. The meeting took place at a time when al
Shabaab <javascript:launchPlayer('o91tx6od', '', 640, 360)>, the jihadist
group that has plagued Somalia for years, is fractured and disorganized.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said during the conference that the
six-nation East African bloc has formed a plan to provide security
assistance for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as the latter
attempts to expand aid deliveries into areas no longer under the control of
the militant group. The meeting also takes place only a few weeks after
Eritrea formally asked to rejoin the regional body, which is currently
headed by Ethiopia, Eritrea’s longtime rival.
As the primary patron of Somalia’s TFG, Ethiopia views al Shabaab’s setback
as a welcome development, but that does not mean Addis Ababa’s worries are
over. Eritrea has provided arms and financial and intelligence assistance to
al Shabaab in the past, in order to make trouble for the TFG and, by
extension, Ethiopia. If Eritrea decides to ramp up its support and
revitalize the militant group, recent gains against al Shabaab could be
unraveled. However, if Ethiopia’s proposals on security assistance for the
TFG are approved at the African Union meeting Aug. 26, they could limit
Eritrea’s influence in the al Shabaab-dominated regions of Somalia. The
proposals could also leave the TFG even more beholden to Addis Ababa and
reduce the ability of TFG figures to stray from Ethiopia’s preferences.
Ethiopia has been the main supporter of Somalia’s TFG over the course of its
existence, militarily intervening in Somalia from 2006-2009 and providing
funding and administrative assistance — though Uganda provides the bulk of
the troops for the African Union Mission in Somalia. The prospect of
spillover violence due to Somalia’s shared border with Ethiopia is one of
the main reasons Ethiopia has backed the TFG, but not the only one. The
historic concept of a “Greater Somalia” in which all of the territories
populated by ethnic Somalis would be united in a single country — to include
present-day Somalia, northeastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia and Djibouti — has
been alive since before the colonial period. With approximately 5.5 million
ethnic Somalis living in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa is concerned that Somalia
could one day use these ethnic linkages to encroach on Ethiopian territory.
This does not appear to be an imminent threat, because the Somalian state is
currently in disarray. Anarchy is viewed as a bigger security concern than
possible Somali territorial ambitions. Still, these ethnic linkages have
motivated Ethiopia to take actions to stabilize its southern neighbor and to
ensure Mogadishu’s dependency on Addis Ababa.
Somalia has also received a good deal of attention from Eritrea, but for a
decidedly different reason. Asmara sees Somalia and its chaotic security
environment as a useful tool to keep Ethiopia distracted. Relations between
Ethiopia and Eritrea have been hostile since the latter seceded to form its
own country in 1991. When Eritrea broke off, it took with it a considerable
amount of territory, including Ethiopia’s only sea access. When the two
states fought a war between 1998 and 2000, Ethiopia retook some of the
disputed areas, and to this day Eritrea remains concerned that Addis Ababa
may at some point revive its military campaign to retake the whole of its
former territory. As a way to counter this potential threat, Eritrea has
supported militant movements in Somalia, including al Shabaab, providing the
group with arms and funding. A weak and chaotic Somalia helps prevent
Ethiopia from focusing its attention on Eritrea.
Al Shabaab’s recent
setbacks<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110808-somalia-al-shabaabs-pullback-does-not-mean-defeat>leave
Ethiopia in a strong position at the moment. However, the potential
involvement of another player in Somalia has Ethiopia concerned. On Aug. 23,
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi visited Mogadishu and held a
meeting with Somali President Sharif Ahmed, with Salehi promising that Ahmed
will make a reciprocal visit at a later date. Though the stated purpose of
the meeting was humanitarian assistance for famine-stricken Somalia, Iran
has established ties with Eritrea — it has provided intelligence, military,
and financial support to Asmara, and is believed to have smuggled weapons to
proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon through these links. Some of this
Iranian support likely makes its way to al Shabaab via the Eritrean
government.
Addis Ababa is reportedly unhappy with Ahmed’s performance as
president<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100702_somalia_shift_away_support_president_ahmed>(it
has warmer relations with the country’s speaker of parliament, Sharif
Hassan), and Ahmed may be worried that Ethiopia is considering abandoning
political support for him. The meeting with Salehi could have been used to
explore other sources of political backing. In Somalia, former political
leaders have few options after they are pushed out of office. They will thus
pursue any measure necessary to stay in power, even an unlikely arrangement
with Iran, which goes against Somalia’s primary patron’s wishes.
The visit to Mogadishu by the Iranian foreign minister — a representative of
a government with known ties to Eritrea — did not go unnoticed in Addis
Ababa. Even during the IGAD meeting, Eritrean Deputy Ambassador to the
African Union Benyam Berhe was reportedly kicked out by IGAD
Secretary-General Mahbub Mualem because Eritrea’s readmission in the group
is still being reviewed. This is not a promising sign for future cooperation
between Eritrea and the bloc. Regardless whether Eritrea is eventually
readmitted to the bloc, Ethiopia will likely use its influence in the IGAD
and the African Union to pursue two goals: preventing Asmara from using
external support to revitalize al Shabaab, and closing off prospective
players such as Iran from expanding their influence in Somalia at Ethiopia’s
expense.
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