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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Mon Sep 05 2011 - 17:31:36 EDT
Meles tells US removing Al Bashir best option
Monday, September 5, 2011 @ 10:09 AM ed
Washington - The Ethiopian Prime minister Meles Zenawi told the U.S.
administration that toppling the governmentled by Sudanese president Omer
Hassan al-Bashir would be the ideal scenario for Washington, according to
leaked diplomatic cable.
The January 30, 2009 note released by Wikileaks, an anti-secrecy website,
detailed discussions that took place between Zenawi and Acting Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs Phil Carter with the presence of the
Director of Sudan Programs Group (SPG) at the US State Department Tim
Shortley.
Focus of the talks was on the widely expected issuance of an arrest warrant
against Bashir by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war
crimes he allegedly committed in Sudan's Western region of Darfur.
The Sudanese leader was officially charged a little over a month after this
meeting took place on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against
humanity. The more serious counts of genocide were only added a year later
after appeal by the ICC prosecutors.
Zenawi told the US delegation that the warrant could encourage someone in
Khartoum to stage a coup but said that success of such an attempt would be
nearly zero due to the close connections and mutual support for one another
among senior NCP officials which would suppress any coup attempt.
"If Bashir remains in power, either because no such coup attempt is made or
an attempt fails, the indictment will leave the Bashir regime a wounded
animal that is more desperate than ever," the cable quoted Zenawi as saying.
The Ethiopian Premier agreed with assertions made by U.S. acting Assistant
Secretary of State for African Affairs that Khartoum's actions seem to
undermine their own long-term interests.
However, Zenawi also argued that the ruling party in Sudan is disappointed
over U.S. refusal to normalize ties despite signing the 2005 Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended more than two decades of civil war with the
South.
At the time, Washington promised Khartoum that it will normalize ties as a
reward. However, the conflict in Darfur made the U.S. hesitant to do so amid
intense domestic pressure to take action that would reverse the growing
humanitarian crisis in Sudan's western region.
"While the [Government of Sudan] GoS thought that they had moved away from a
climate of bad relations with Washington when they signed the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement in Naivasha, they perceive the United States as having
shifted the goal posts on them since" Zenawi said.
As a result, Zenawi asserted that the GoS believes that "the U.S. will get
them one way or the other," and from that perspective, they are already in a
corner. Believing they will lose, they perceive no benefit to them of
resolving the problems of South Sudan." the Ethiopian top official said.
Zenawi said that the NCP's strategy as a result will be to deploy delaying
tactics such as postponing the January 2011 referendum, buy time on Darfur
and "hope for a miracle" in 2011.
"To die today or die tomorrow, they will choose to employ delaying
mechanisms allowing them to die tomorrow" Zenawi explained.
He said that while the "Islamic agenda" may have motivated the regime ten
years ago, today they are interested only in money and power.
He pressed the case that direct negotiations between Khartoum and Washington
could lead to rational discussions.
Zenawi then went on to wrap up his views saying that if he were the United
States he would look at two options.
The first one, which he clearly conveyed as the preferred choice according
to the U.S. cable, would be to "remove the Bashir regime."
Acknowledging that such an option was unlikely, Zenawi advocated for making
a clear representation to the GoS that the United States is not "out to get
them" and laying out clear benchmarks of actions expected of the GoS on both
Darfur and South Sudan that would be necessary to "avoid continued
challenges" with the U.S.
He concluded the discussion by highlighting that "they [Khartoum] don't
trust the Obama Administration," and "they trust the Obama Administration
less than the Bush Administration," and with a clear reference to U.S.
Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice and former Senior NSC Director for Africa
Gayle Smith. Both officials are considered hardliners in their views of
Khartoum.
Relations between Sudan and Ethiopia are considered to be generally strong
in recent years. Addis Ababa was one of Bashir's first stops after the ICC
arrest warrant.
Ethiopia is seen as an honest broker by Sudanese parties and has hosted
numerous meetings between north and south over the past two years.
More recently Ethiopia agreed to deploy its troops as part of a United
Nations peacekeeping mission to Sudan's disputed Abyei region.
Khartoum sent tanks and troops into oil producing Abyei last May, forcing
tens of thousands of people to flee the fighting. But both sides agreed to
set up a demilitarized zone along the border after talks in Addis Ababa.
Last month Zenawi attempted to mediate between the NCP and Sudan People
Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N) in a bid to end the ongoing clashes that
erupted last June. However, the effort seemed to have been fruitless.
To makes matters worse, the Sudanese army on Friday clashed with SPLA units
in the Blue Nile state which borders Ethiopia. It remains to be seen how the
latter would react particularly given reports of exodus by civilian
population from the state in the aftermath of the fighting.
There are small signs however, that relations between Addis Ababa and
Khartoum are not as smooth as it seems.
The government sponsored Sudanese Media Center (SMC) website has carried a
report that was critical of choosing Ethiopian troops to deploy in Abyei
citing national security concerns and Addis Ababa ties with Israel.
Furthermore, the Paris-based Indian Ocean newsletter reported concerns by
Addis Ababa over information of meetings between Sudan's National
Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) officers and members of the Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF) and leaders of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Party (EPRP).
The report said Khartoum on the other hand is angered over Ethiopian
military support to Juba which it claims is falling into the hands of SPLA
in South Kordofan.
In October 2008 Sudan summoned the Ethiopian ambassador to protest against
weapons that it said had arrived in south Sudan's capital Juba on an
Ethiopian military plane.
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