*VOA's East Africa Correspondent Gabe Joselow speaks with Somali political
analyst Abdi Samad, of Southlink Consultants in Nairobi, about the
implications of a military incursion.*
*JOSELOW: * Well, the first thing I wanted to ask was about these recent
reports that the Kenyan military has gone into Somalia to go after al-Shabab
militants it believes are responsible for a spate of kidnappings over the
past couple of months. Is this strategy an effective way to combat
al-Shabab?
*ABDI SAMAD:* What we're hearing from the media, Kenya, they crossed over
into the border, almost 100 kilometers from the border. If they say we
crossed over into Somalia, in fact, you know, Kenyan army forces are
fighting against unseen forces. Why I'm saying unseen forces, you cannot
differentiate between al-Shabab fighters and Somali populations. They are
not professional soldiers; they are not career soldiers. So if you cross
over and in fact start fighting with what you call al-Shabab, who is
al-Shabab?
*JOSELOW:* What do you think the reaction of al-Shabab is going to be? Can
we expect retaliatory attacks as far as Nairobi?
*ABDI SAMAD:* It depends. If Kenya's succeeded to root out al-Shabab from
the central and southern part of Somalia, then they are obviously going to
revenge. Although al-Shabab they are not the professional soldiers, what
they are going to do is only the incident they did sometimes back in
Kampala, the same thing they can do here. They can even make havoc inside
Nairobi, they can do that. Virtually the country will be at war with unseen
forces - unseen forces - yes, that will be the repercussions.
*JOSELOW:* Kenya has refused to participate in the AMISOM mission that is
supporting the TFG in Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia. So would a
military incursion into Somalia contradict Kenya's previous foreign policy
and what are the implications of that?
*ABDI SAMAD:* In fact, the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, they
requested it, the African Union at least to contribute 20,000 - a strong
20,000 forces to restore peace and stability in Somalia. Today, if they
cross over unilaterally, there will be repercussions; you know, long-term
repercussions.
The best option for Kenyans today: first, they have to deploy armed forces along the border area to secure the safety and security of the people. Secondly, they must screen the people who are going back and forth between the Kenya-Somali border. The third one, let them deploy what you call the armed forces, let them reinforce AMISOM, the African peacekeeping force in Mogadishu.
Let them contribute, let's say 2,000, 3,000 Kenyan army there. From there, then, Kenya, they are in Mogadishu, legitimately, the other side of the border legitimately. So in case anything happens, they can still pursue those guys, organized gangs from Mogadishu and from the other side of the border, which the international community can accept.
*JOSELOW:* What are the repercussions for Somali people, especially in south
and central areas of Somalia.
*ABDI SAMAD:* You know, when the army crosses over into a civilian
population, obviously what will happen? Killings, displacement, what will
happen? They are going to bombard civilians, indiscriminately, whether it is
children, whether it is the old age people, the normal civilians. So all in
all, there will be a problem. Because when the Kenya Army are crossing over
into Somali territory, they are not distributing flowers, what they are
distributing are bullets, to be honest.
----[Mailing List for Eritrea Related News ]---- Received on Mon Oct 17 2011 - 12:37:23 EDT
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