"Enter Ethiopia, which with U.S. intelligence and logistics support invaded
Somalia with a large force in December 2006 to unseat an Islamic regime and
replace it with a Western-backed Transitional Federal Government.
Largely Christian Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa's major military power,
doesn't want an Islamic state on its southern border while it fights a
Muslim insurgency in the Ogaden region. It also wants to keep Washington
happy.
Its forces, widely reviled across Somalia as Christian occupiers of a
Muslim land, withdrew in 2009 with al-Shabaab's power greatly enhanced by
the invasion that was supposed to crush the Islamists.
Western diplomats and counter-insurgency experts say the Kenyan incursion
has probably aided al-Shabaab in the same way, and even united its
incessantly squabbling factions in the face of an external threat.
A second incursion by the hated Ethiopians will likely have an even greater
impact in that regard"
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/11/28/Ethiopia-dragged-back-into-Somali-quagmire/UPI-43761322507244/
Special Reports <
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/>
Ethiopia dragged back into Somali quagmire
Published: Nov. 28, 2011 at 2:07 PM
MOGADISHU, Somalia, Nov. 28 (UPI) -- The conflict in Somalia looks like
it's being internationalized again as Ethiopia is dragged back into the
Horn of Africa quagmire to help a Kenyan invasion battling Islamist
fighters that has bogged down in winter rains.
The danger is that the intrusion of outside powers, with the United States
waging a covert war against the Islamists of al-Shabaab, will ignite
resentment among Somalis and bolster support for the jihadists.
Some 2,000 Kenyan troops, including the elite 20th Parachute Regiment and
supported by airstrikes, artillery and armor, crossed into Somalia Oct. 16
after the kidnapping of several foreign tourists in Kenya blamed on
al-Shabaab, which is allied to al-Qaida.
The objective appeared to be to establish a semi-autonomous buffer zone in
Somalia to block jihadist cross-border raids that threatened to destabilize
Kenya.
The incursion into southern Somalia was aimed at seizing the key
transportation hub of Afmadow and the Indian Ocean port city of Kismayo,
both important al-Shabaab strongholds south of Mogadishu, and smashing the
jihadist organization.
But the offensive has bogged down in winter monsoon weather, while being
harassed by hit-and-run attacks by al-Shabaab, which doesn't want to have
to fight a pitched battle against conventional forces.
The Kenyans, who've received some $700 million in U.S. military aid this
year, boast they can take Kismayo, a smuggling hub and a major source of
revenue for the jihadists.
But the hard fact is the Kenyan force needs help itself with little to show
for its efforts, including a naval blockade of Kismayo, and no indication
it's capable of delivering a knockout blow against al-Shabaab.
Enter Ethiopia, which with U.S. intelligence and logistics support invaded
Somalia with a large force in December 2006 to unseat an Islamic regime and
replace it with a Western-backed Transitional Federal Government.
Largely Christian Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa's major military power,
doesn't want an Islamic state on its southern border while it fights a
Muslim insurgency in the Ogaden region. It also wants to keep Washington
happy.
Its forces, widely reviled across Somalia as Christian occupiers of a
Muslim land, withdrew in 2009 with al-Shabaab's power greatly enhanced by
the invasion that was supposed to crush the Islamists.
Western diplomats and counter-insurgency experts say the Kenyan incursion
has probably aided al-Shabaab in the same way, and even united its
incessantly squabbling factions in the face of an external threat.
A second incursion by the hated Ethiopians will likely have an even greater
impact in that regard.
The corrupt and faction-plagued TFG is pretty much as unpopular as the
Ethiopians. It's kept in power largely by U.S. funds, a recently built-up
CIA presence and a 9,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force known as
Amisom, composed of troops from Uganda and Burundi.
The Ethiopians launched their second invasion of Somalia, although on a
more limited scale than their 2006 operation, around Nov. 17. It apparently
comprises hundreds of troops supported by armored vehicles and heavy
artillery who appear to be headed for Baidoa, another al-Shabaab bastion
close to the Ethiopian border.
The incursion followed an urgent request for U.S. help from the Nairobi
government, which realized it had probably bitten off more than it could
chew by pushing into Somalia.
The Americans, who have recently stepped up their covert war against
al-Shabaab, are extremely reluctant to engage in another counter-insurgency
operation with conventional forces, although they appear to have provided
some air strikes to back up the struggling Kenyans.
Washington had warned Kenya it couldn't succeed in dismantling al-Shabaab.
The Americans apparently called in the Ethiopians under the cover of the AU
to open a new front.
It's a highly charged -- and risky -- return for Ethiopia. Even TFG
President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed was unhappy with the Ethiopian thrust.
But he had no choice. The TFG only controls a small part of Mogadishu.
On paper, al-Shabaab appears to be getting squeezed on three fronts – in
the east by Amisom around Mogadishu, in the west by Kenya and in the north
by Ethiopia and its local proxy, the Ahlu Sunna wal Jama'a militia.
But the current fighting is expected to drag well into 2012, with the
threat the 20-year-old conflict will spill over Somalia's borders.
Read more:
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/11/28/Ethiopia-dragged-back-into-Somali-quagmire/UPI-43761322507244/#ixzz1f221TVnm
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Received on Mon Nov 28 2011 - 15:01:42 EST