“What you’d have is an African peacekeeping force involving neighboring
countries that are partisan actors in the conflict to some extent, and
clearly that’s not going to work,” she said, adding that Ethiopia’s
previous Mogadishu occupation was so “horrifically brutal that the idea of
them coming back as part of a peacekeeping mission is just unacceptable on
any level.”
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/10766/ethiopia-rejoining-a-fight-it-never-left-in-somalia
Ethiopia Rejoining a Fight It Never Left in Somalia
By Guy Taylor | 28 Nov 2011
The international offensive against the Islamist al-Shabaab organization in
Somalia appeared to take a new turn last week as hundreds of Ethiopian
troops accompanied by armored personnel carriers reportedly crossed the
border into the famine- and war-torn nation.
The U.S. had already expanded its drone war into Somalia over the summer,
and Kenyan troops have been fighting al-Shabaab in southern Somalia since
last month. A significant incursion now by Ethiopia could shift the
dynamics of the already chaotic war.
But according to Bronwyn E. Bruton, deputy director of the Michael S.
Ansari Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington, it would be
wrong to assume Ethiopia ever fully left Somalia after its violent and
failed occupation of Mogadishu two years ago.
“There was a terrific fanfare when Ethiopia withdrew in 2009, but they
really only withdrew from Mogadishu,” Bruton told Trend Lines last week.
“Since then they’ve remained embedded in the Somali border region,
maintaining proxies and making regular incursions over the border. So when
we talk about them now re-engaging in Somalia, we’re really talking about a
ramping up in response to a particular set of conditions.”
Ethiopia, she said, is above all driven by a desire to contain a
long-running separatist movement gripping its own oil-rich Ogaden region,
which borders northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia. The mostly Muslim
region is populated by Ogaden ethnic-Somali clans and home to the
pro-secession Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF).
Ethiopia’s fear, according to Bruton, is that unrest in Somalia could spill
over the border, igniting further violence in the Ogaden region, or else
that an al-Shabaab-style Islamist government in Mogadishu might ally with
the ONLF or renew longstanding irredentist Somali claims on the Ogaden.
Either outcome would not only compromise Ethiopia’s ability to profit from
the region’s oil, but also widen the specter of a separatist war on
Ethiopian soil.
As a result, the past half-decade has seen Ethiopia secure its border with
Somalia in an attempt to isolate the ONLF. “The Ethiopians,” said Bruton,
“have been vigilant about putting in place proxy armies, proxy forces and
proxy warlords all along the Somalia side of the border so that it is
impossible for al-Shabaab to gain a sturdy foothold there.”
It remains to be seen how an increased presence of uniformed Ethiopian
soldiers on the Somali side will impact the situation. Their reception will
likely depend on how aggressively they act toward the local population,
said Bruton, who noted that Ethiopian troops killed thousands of Somali
civilians during the two-year occupation that followed their 2006 invasion.
“There will only be a problem if they overstep their role,” she said, “for
example, if they push too far toward Mogadishu.”
But Ethiopia may be eager to assist Kenya, whose own intervention in
southern Somalia began about a month ago -- particularly if Kenya begins
signaling a desire to join African Union peacekeeping forces presently
occupying Mogadishu.
Nearly all of the roughly 10,000 troops currently committed to the African
Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are from Uganda and Burundi. “If Kenya
says, ‘We want a part in AMISOM,’ then Ethiopia is likely to make the case
that it should be included too,” said Brutan, who believes the prospects
for such an arrangement are problematic.
“What you’d have is an African peacekeeping force involving neighboring
countries that are partisan actors in the conflict to some extent, and
clearly that’s not going to work,” she said, adding that Ethiopia’s
previous Mogadishu occupation was so “horrifically brutal that the idea of
them coming back as part of a peacekeeping mission is just unacceptable on
any level.”
As for the role being played by the United States, Bruton said it is much
less one of leadership than reaction. “When you can’t see a clear cause and
effect to what’s going on, it’s easy to say that it’s really the United
States pulling the strings,” she said. “But I think in this case, the
'puppets' are actually dancing by themselves, and the U.S. is watching but
not leading.”
“And at this point,” she added, “that doesn’t necessarily bode well for
Somalia.”
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Received on Tue Nov 29 2011 - 10:44:36 EST