http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Ethiopias-Anti-Al-Shabab-Push-Sparks-Concerns-of-a-Backlash-134721148.html
November 29, 2011
Ethiopia's Anti Al-Shabab Push Sparks Concerns of a Backlash
Nico Colombant
While Ethiopia is getting a green light from Somalia's transitional
government and neighboring countries to take part in large-scale military
actions against Somalia's al-Shabab Islamic insurgents, analysts are
concerned the new incursion could further deteriorate an already volatile
situation.
Six weeks after Kenya's government sent troops into southern Somalia to
create buffer zones free of al-Shabab militants in that border region,
Ethiopia's government is now being given the go ahead to open a front from
its western borders, in the growing multilateral offensive against the
Islamic rebels.
Diplomats in the region say hundreds of Ethiopian troops supported by
armored vehicles and heavy artillery already appear to be headed toward the
al-Shabab southern stronghold of Baidoa.
African peacekeepers were able to force the militants from their main
positions in the southeastern capital Mogadishu earlier this year, even
though terrorist bombings continue there, and attacks have also been
carried out in other countries in the Horn of Africa as well. Al-Shabab
also still remains in control of large parts of southern and central
Somalia.
Bronwyn Bruton, a Somalia expert with the Atlantic Council research center
here in Washington, says she feels much more comfortable when professional
soldiers from countries which are not neighbors take part in military
operations inside Somalia, than when she sees soldiers from neighboring
Kenya and Ethiopia.
"When you have countries like them entering the fray, you get a worrisome
tendency to think there is a free for all. It stirs up the possibilities of
a real popular backlash of the kind that we saw back in 2007 and 2008," she
said.
At the time, a U.S-backed Ethiopian incursion fought against the Islamic
Courts Union. One of the ICU's former leaders, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed,
now heads the struggling U.S and United Nations-backed transitional
government in Mogadishu.
Al-Shabab grew out of the fighting, amid widespread resentment in Somalia
of what was viewed as a foreign occupation. Bruton says Ethiopian forces
have continued covert operations along the border region in recent years,
including helping anti al-Shabab militias, despite repeated Ethiopian
denials.
Berhanu Mengistu, a professor from Old Dominion University, who took part
in a recent conference in the United States concerning the Horn of Africa's
response to al-Shabab, points out that Ethiopia clearly has the largest and
most efficient military in the region.
But he says Ethiopia's renewed incursion, which closely follows Kenya's
entrance, raises many questions. "What is the driving agenda? Was the
agenda externally driven or is the agenda internally driven? Who benefits
from these interventions and who does not?"
If the U.S. government is backing the strategy as part of anti-terrorism
efforts, Mengistu says he would rather like to see more outside efforts to
boost the legitimacy of governments across the Horn, including Somalia's
and Ethiopia's. He says the region is currently undergoing a downward
spiral of violence which he sees as extremely worrisome.
U.S. officials recently acknowledged they are sending drone aircraft from
Ethiopia to conduct surveillance in Somalia, and there have also been
reported U.S. drone strikes against al-Qaida linked al-Shabab targets.
A former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, Tibor Nagy, currently working as a
provost at Texas Tech University, says he would like to see more support
coming from the United States for the anti al-Shabab operations to quickly
succeed.
"What I would like to see is much more U.S. engagement in a leadership
capacity, by no means sending American forces in there, but the
international troops there are still undermanned, they are undersupplied,
despite the hardships from my perspective they have made remarkable
progress," he said.
Nagy says he believes there has been renewed international interest in
Somalia because of the devastating drought which hit the region this year
and caused a famine in several al-Shabab controlled areas. Over the past 20
years, though, he feels foreign policy from all countries intervening in or
trying to help Somalia, has been, in his words, a dismal failure. That is
the same amount of time Somalia has not had a functioning central
government.
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Received on Wed Nov 30 2011 - 07:47:47 EST