http://dailymaverick.co.za/article/2011-11-30-kenya-sudan-diplomatic-spat-poised-to-ignite-horn-of-africa
Kenya-Sudan diplomatic spat poised to ignite Horn of Africa
*2011-11-30*
Sudan's cut diplomatic ties in disgust at a Kenyan court decision to arrest
President Omar al-Bashir if he's ever in Kenya again. While this has caught
Kenya's bemused government by surprise, alienating Sudan might just have
made its incursion into Somalia significantly more rigorous. By SIMON
ALLISON.
It was in frustration more than anything else that Sudan expelled the
Kenyan ambassador on Monday, abruptly cutting off diplomatic ties between
the two countries. With all the problems the regime in Khartoum has - the
failing economy, the domestic protests, the various rebel movements that
just won't go away and the lingering disputes with South Sudan - the last
thing Bashir and his government need is for one of their few allies to turn
against them.
Not that Kenya was much of an ally, gravitating naturally towards South
Sudan. But Kenya has nonetheless been sympathetic to Khartoum, most
significantly on the vexed question of what to do about Bashir and the
International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over his head. Bashir
has been charged with genocide and war crimes for atrocities committed in
Darfur, but the Sudanese president has so far declined to voluntarily
appear before the court. The warrant has, however, curtailed his holiday
trips somewhat, as he can only visit countries who promise not to hand him
over.
Until Monday, Kenya was one of those countries. Bashir was in Nairobi as
recently as August. But then things changed after a judge ruled that if
Bashir sets foot in Kenya again, he will be detained and delivered to ICC
headquarters in The Hague. The ruling came after a non-governmental
organisation petitioned the high court to enforce the rules of the ICC, of
which Kenya is a member state.
Khartoum's response was swift - barely had judgment been passed before the
Kenyan ambassador was summarily expelled, while Sudan's envoy in Nairobi
was hastily recalled. Though understandable, Khartoum's anger may be
somewhat misplaced. It's difficult for authoritarian
states like Sudan to really grasp judicial independence, but the fact
remains that the court order was exactly that, and not an executive
decision. Kenya's politicians are probably bemused by it - after all, most
of them aren't big fans of the ICC, which is currently conducting pre-trial
hearings into six Kenyan politicians accused of inciting the devastating
post-election violence in 2008.
But Kenya now has a serious issue on its hands, one which might have
implications beyond the rarefied diplomatic community. It's an unwelcome
distraction from the war Kenya is currently waging against Al Shabaab in
Somalia, and might even make the successful execution of the military
operation there significantly more arduous.
As the Somali conflict assumes regional dimensions - with Ethiopian troops
joining the fray, and Djibouti and Sierra Leone sending reinforcements to
the African Union mission which already hosts soldiers from Uganda and
Burundi - Kenya needs to recognise that alienating Sudan could even further
destabilise Somalia.
Most concerning is Sudan's new-found friendship with Eritrea. The two
countries have historically not been good neighbours, with both governments
at one time or another providing support to rebel groups in each other's
territory. But this animosity recently gave way to a strange friendship.
Sudan has returned hundreds of Eritrean asylum seekers to their home
country, much to the horror of the UNHCR.
For Kenya, this is a dangerous friendship. It is Eritrea that it’s accused
of funding Al Shabaab, and it’ll be worried - with good reason - that Sudan
will take its perceived rejection by Kenya hard, and align itself instead
with Kenya's enemies, who just happen to already be Sudan's friends.
And so the vague, initial outlines of a regional battle are being drawn.
Sudan and Eritrea on one side, united by their rogue status and struggling
to find friends elsewhere. And on the other, the rest of East Africa, with
Kenya and Ethiopia leading the charge and the African Union leading the
cheers. The battleground? Somalia, of course, where the prospects of peace
and stability look even further remote. *DM*
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Received on Wed Nov 30 2011 - 13:52:01 EST