"The Shabab are being squeezed from all sides—by American drones from
the air, by Somali government forces and African Union troops (mostly
Ugandan) in Mogadishu, and by Ethiopia, which says it may reinforce
the AU force by pushing in from the West. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s
prime minister, dislikes the idea of Kenya having the upper hand in
Somalia. But descriptions of Ethiopia’s deployment are probably
exaggerated. Ethiopia never really left after occupying swathes of
western Somalia in 2006, before supposedly withdrawing completely in
2009. In fact, Ethiopia has built up a network of spies, military
trainers and proxy forces that do its bidding. It has long continued
to run reconnaissance missions across the border"
http://www.economist.com/blogs/baobab/2011/11/ethiopia-kenya-and-somalia
Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia
More but not merrier
Nov 28th 2011, 16:41 by J.L. | WAJIR
KENYA sent thousands of troops to southern Somalia a month ago to wipe
out the jihadist Shabab militia. It wants to establish a buffer state
in the south, perhaps to be called Jubaland, in order better to
protect its national interests. These include boosting safety for
tourists and increasing trade, especially cattle imports from Somalia
and exports to Somalia of Qat, a mild narcotic. A peaceful Jubaland is
also a precondition of the planned construction of a multi-billion
dollar port and town in the region near Lamu, where foreigners have
recently been killed and kidnapped by Somali gangs. It should improve
Kenya’s chances of selling oil and gas concessions there too.
The operation is not yet a success. Sceptics say the Kenyans have
spent more time Tweeting than fighting. The Shabab have cockily said
the Kenyans are free to leave before things get serious.
Kenya claims to have held back on an all-out advance on the key
Shabab-held port of Kismayo to wait for the rains to end and to secure
gains by building trust with local clan militias and businessmen.
There is clearly support for the Kenyans in several conquered areas.
In some places the Shabab forces have been notably quiet. Tellingly,
their masked fighters seen in parades appear to be boys; the men have
slipped away.
Some degree of escalation is almost certain. Kenyan victories in
Somalia are likely be met with a Shabab bombing campaign in Kenya and
beyond. Vigilance of security guards in Kenya is already faltering in
the face of the country’s happy-go-lucky outlook. The best chance of
averting carnage in the Kenyan capital Nairobi looks to be luck and
jihadist incompetence. At least incompetence is possible after Western
and Ethiopian intelligence campaigns of recent years have successfully
targeted Shabab bomb-makers and commanders; several would-be Shabab
“martyrs” have accidentally blown themselves up this week. Then again,
other bombers have succeeded in setting off blasts in the Somali
capital, Mogadishu. Besides, such thin hopes are no consolation for
tourists and investors who want to visit Kenya.
The Shabab are being squeezed from all sides—by American drones from
the air, by Somali government forces and African Union troops (mostly
Ugandan) in Mogadishu, and by Ethiopia, which says it may reinforce
the AU force by pushing in from the West. Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s
prime minister, dislikes the idea of Kenya having the upper hand in
Somalia. But descriptions of Ethiopia’s deployment are probably
exaggerated. Ethiopia never really left after occupying swathes of
western Somalia in 2006, before supposedly withdrawing completely in
2009. In fact, Ethiopia has built up a network of spies, military
trainers and proxy forces that do its bidding. It has long continued
to run reconnaissance missions across the border.
Somali hatred of Ethiopia may also be overplayed. Along the border at
least, on the evidence of Baobab's travels there, many Somalis seem to
prefer the Ethiopians to the maniacal Shabab. Mr Meles will probably
order commando units, perhaps in AU green helmets, to advance on
Shabab positions. At that point the jihadists will have to decide how
much territory they can afford to defend.
The Somali Transitional Federal Government will probably squander any
territorial gains with rent seeking and squabbling. Prime Minister
Abdiweli Mohamed Ali is competent, but President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed
has become a liability. Mr Ahmed is torn between pragmatically
allowing in foreigners, and retaining a nationalist Islamist
sentiment. The TFG's tenuous position is not helped by Kenya's
reaching out to Israel for help on stamping on the Shabab. Photos of
Kenyan and Israeli officials glad-handing in Jerusalem recently have
played prominently on jihadist websites.
The Kenyan pact with Israel has shocked some Kenyan Muslims. They have
largely been supportive of moving into Somalia, but if the campaign
flounders, people may become more sympathetic to the jihadists'
message.
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Received on Wed Nov 30 2011 - 19:25:53 EST