Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2011 21:56:09 +0100
Analysts Hope Eritrea Sanctions Will End Somali Conflict
Cathy Majtenyi | Nairobi, Kenya
December 06, 2011
In East Africa, hopes are high that the long-running Somali conflict will
soon abate with the United Nations Security Council's approval Monday of
tougher sanctions against Eritrea. The nation is accused of supporting
Somali militants, including al-Shabab. For its part, Eritrea denies the
allegations and calls the sanctions "illegal and unjust."
Analysts and some of those involved in the long-running Somali conflict say
they are hoping for a quick end to the fighting following Monday's decision
by the United Nations Security Council.
Among those expressing optimism is Colonel Felix Kulayigye, a spokesman for
the Ugandan army, whose troops are in Somalia under the African Union
peacekeeping force AMISOM.
"Normally, sanctions are supposed to reduce the capability of the affected
country in its financial muscle. And, therefore, if Eritrea faces sanctions,
if they are comprehensive enough, that means it will have not a spare penny
to spend on negative elements," said Kulayigye.
Neighbors' accusations
Somalia's neighbors, such as Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya, have long accused
Eritrea of funding the Islamist militant group al-Shabab and other armed
opposition groups, which are battling AMISOM and the Somali transitional
government.
In July, a United Nations Monitoring Group released a report detailing
Eritrea's political, financial, training, and logistical support.
Analyst Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, head of the research group Southlink,
said he thinks Western-backed forces battling Somali rebel groups will soon
get their big break.
"If the sanctions become effective on Eritrea, what I'm sure is that they
can easily defeat those militia within Somalia," said Abdisamad.
He said he thinks the sanctions will have an impact on what he calls the
"Eritrean route." These are flights between the Somali coastal city of
Kismayo and the Eritrean capital of Asmara, which he said are used to
transport support to the rebels.
Sanctions effectiveness questioned
Sanctions levied against Eritrea, though, will have negative effects on
Eritrea's people and development, said Girma Asmerom, Eritrean Ambassador to
the African Union.
"Where everybody is talking Millennium Development Goals, sustainable
development, alleviating poverty, where do they expect Eritrea - which is
not dependent on foreign aid - where do they expect Eritrea to achieve all
this if they are sanctioning its natural resources. Is God or Allah going to
throw it from the sky? So this kind of sanctions are, again, a crime against
any developing country," he said.
Girma also said he would not wish these sanctions on any of his neighboring
countries, and said he thinks the whole region will suffer as a result of
the sanctions.
In a press release, Eritrea rejects what it calls the United Nations'
"illegal and unjust" sanctions.
Analysts generally agree that Eritrean involvement in Somalia has very
little to do with Somali politics, but is more about the relationship
between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
'Proxy war' with Ethiopia alleged
Emmanuel Kisiangani, senior researcher with the South Africa-based Institute
for Security Studies, calls Eritrea's involvement in Somalia a "proxy war"
with Ethiopia.
The two countries have had a longstanding border conflict over an area
called Badme, with brutal warfare between the two at one point.
Kisiangani also noted that in 2006, Ethiopian forces entered Somalia to back
the Western-backed Transitional Federal Government fighting a group called
the Islamic Courts Union. At the same time, Eritrea went in and began
supporting elements that were to eventually become al-Shabab.
"Eritrea has had differences with Ethiopia over the Badme border region,
which the Court of Arbitration at The Hague awarded to Eritrea, a decision
which Ethiopia has not respected," said Kisiangani. "It all boils down to
the two actors supporting different parties. It is only that Ethiopia has
played its cards well and what it does is acceptable to the international
community."
Girma said his country supports regional integration because all countries
need to rely on each other for their development.
"We have never thought to destabilize any of the countries because they are
our potential markets, they are our assets, we want a strong, viable
Ethiopia," he said.
He called the view that Eritrea is supporting al-Shabab "lies and
deceptions," and said Eritrea has never, and will never, support al-Shabab.
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