Date: Sun, 25 Dec 2011 20:12:48 +0100
Why the international community should not support the Kenyan invasion of
Somalia?
http://www.hiiraan.com/images/2011/Nov/historical_map.jpg
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by Muuse Yuusuf
Dec, 25, 2011
Once again, the Kenyan invasion of Somalia is reminding us of the negative
impact that some huge global and regional political events have had on the
Somali nation. From the 19th century colonialism, which divided the Somali
nation to five regions to the 20th century superpower rivalry in the region
that denied Somalis of liberating the Ogaden region, are all good examples
of how this homogenous society that speaks one language and practises one
religion has found itself torn apart by the dynamics of some global forces
that are beyond its control.
Right now in the 21st century, the war on terror has prolonged the Somali
conflict. The classical clan conflict and factionalism should and could have
ended in 2000 after the Arta-Djibouti reconciliation process. However, the
dynamics of the war on terror, which started after Ethiopia accused the
Transitional National Government of links with Al-Qaeda in 2001, prolonged
the Somali conflict, giving it a religious dimension. Although it is
impossible to point out one factor as the main cause of Somalia's protracted
conflicts, the prognosis of the post-2001 conflicts could mainly be analysed
through the lenses of the war on terror which has induced religious wars.
At regional level, Somalia has to live with hostile neighbours fearful of
Somali nationalism. Ethiopia and Kenya have all shown their determination to
use force as and when they want. A classic example of this was the Ethiopian
invasion in 2006. The US-backed Ethiopian action was meant to enable the TFG
stabilise the country and dismantle a radical Islamist infrastructure, but
it failed on both counts. From the moment of the occupation, Somalia,
particularly Mogadishu became a war zone where a multi faceted insurgency
fought a ruthless TFG/Ethiopian force in an Afghanistan-Iraq insurgency
style. Somali suicide bombers, a new phenomenon in Somali culture, attacked
and destroyed TFG/Ethiopian military convoys, as roadside bombs maimed and
killed Ethiopian soldiers whose mutilated bodies were dragged in Mogadishu
streets exactly. The quick victory by the Ethiopian forces turned into a
nightmare, and it was not that long before the Ethiopian leadership realised
the strength of Somalis' opposition to the invasion. The invasion
re-invigorated a fully-fledged radical Islamic movement, proud of its
ideological links with Al-Qaeda with the blessing of Osama Bin Laden. This
was exactly the opposite of what the US-backed Ethiopian invasion was
supposed to achieve. Out of the ashes of the defunct-Islamic Courts Union
rose the Al-Shabaab movement that is now being dismantled bit by bit.
Now fast forward the clock of the history to October, 2011. Kenya, another
neighbouring country, invaded Somalia on the flimsy excuse of chasing and
destroying forces that are behind a few kidnappings and murders of western
tourists in Kenya. Kenya massed thousands of troops inside Somalia, using
air and ground forces to dislodge Al-Shabaab. This is causing more
displacement of people, death and destruction of properties. In addition to
this short-term objective, Kenya's blatant violation of the sovereignty of
the country has also long-term strategic and security reasons. The issue of
the Somali region in Kenya with its irredentism undertone together with the
recent influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced people have created
heightened tension and insecurity along the Kenya-Somali border thus putting
Kenya in a rather difficult position. The invasion is, therefore, part of
its efforts to create a buffer zone in its border with Somalia by
encouraging and supporting mini-states, such as Azania state that is being
created by a mixture of clans in lower Jubba region, headed by Professor
Gaandi, a former Somali defence minister. Believe it or not, the same
Ethiopia, which has supported the creation of mini-states
(Somaliland/Puntland) to weaken Somali unity, is against the formation of
Azania state for its national interests! Ethiopia perceives the Azania
initiative as having links with the Ogaden region and is therefore fearful
of it in case it emboldens resistance and liberation movements in the Ogaden
region.
The point here is that, regardless of their different objectives, Kenya and
Ethiopia will always pursue their national and strategic interests. Indeed,
during the Mbagathi reconciliation process in 2002, former Kenyan President,
Arap Moi, admitted in a row over the leadership of the process that his
country and Ethiopia could not be entrusted with the reconciliation because
of their countries' fear of Somali nationalism.
In a realist world, nation-states will always pursue their national
interests. However, the real question about Kenya's intervention is whether
it has a coherent and well-thought policy on its military adventure and its
support of the creation of Azania? For example, how long will Kenya stay in
Somalia, knowing that the Ethiopian occupation lasted for 2 years, although
Meles Zenawi, its Prime Minister said his troops would stay in Somalia for a
few weeks? What does it want to achieve from the incursion, knowing that the
Ethiopia invasion created Al-Shabaab, the opposite of what was expected? Who
can guarantee the invasion would not reinvigorate Somali nationalism hence
energising radicalism that might even engulf the Somali region in Kenya?
What sort of a mini-state does it want and how this could contribute to the
stabilisation process of Somalis in the long run if this is what it wants?
These are some legitimate hard-nosed questions that Kenya has failed to
answer so far exactly as Ethiopia failed to do when it invaded Somalia in
2006. It is one thing to seek international support to legitimise illegal
invasion, but it is entirely a different matter to formulate a coherent
policy or strategy combined with achievable and measurable objectives that
could improve the situation. This is exactly what is missing from the Kenyan
adventure. There are many examples in history of failed military
interventions due to lack of coherent and well-thought political objectives.
The ongoing Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts are classical examples.
When dealing with this new development in the region, the international
community should keep in mind of the existing unbalanced power structure in
the region in which Somalia, a poor and broke nation found itself tormented
and bullied by two powerful neighbours that are resolute in enhancing their
national interests through the barrel of gun regardless of the outcome and
human suffering or material costs. The international community should be
extremely wary of Kenya's manoeuvre or motives for the above mentioned
reasons.
The new scenario in the region reminds us of the Somali nation in the 19th
century when colonial powers were dividing it up among themselves. Somalis
themselves are deeply divided, but unfortunately their division is being
exacerbated by their neighbours. Therefore, supporting the Kenyan adventure,
without first answering the above legitimate questions, would probably mean
blessing the gradual partition of the Somali nation by powerful neighbours
only this time with the consent of the international community, which is
supposed to upheld international laws and conventions.
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Muuse Yuusuf
<mailto:Myuusuf3_at_hotmail.com> Myuusuf3_at_hotmail.com
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