The Shadow
Government of Ethiopia
Amanuel
Biedemariam
On its 28th of
July report Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT) described the impact of the
absence of Meles Zenawi and his leadership. Contrary to what Sebhat Nega and
Bereket Simon portrayed, ESAT reported those middle management are in suspense
all over. The poorly explained absence of Meles has created deep tension that
could tear the country apart. Rumors are abundant about emergency meetings.
Lack of information has made high-ranking bureaucrats nervous and unable to run
the daily affairs of the nation. According to the report, these groups are in a
panic mode desperately seeking to get their families and dollars out thus
creating a vacuum.
The absence of Meles is
one obvious dilemma and a minefield the junta is trying to figure out how to
address carefully. For the author the question is not what Meles’s crime
partners are doing. The criminals will do all they can to retain the
status-quo. According to Sibhat Nega, the junta runs the country in accordance
to their standard practices that is, even if a leader goes down, they have a
method in place that enables them to run the nations affairs uninterrupted.
Hence, Sibhat inadvertently admitted that the junta runs Ethiopia in disregard
to the wishes of the public hence minimized the absence of Meles. Therefore, it
is more important to focus on what this criminal junta is trying to attain,
which is the continuation of the defunct regime, rather than the life or death
of the criminal Meles.
Dead or alive, the
prevailing assumption is that Meles is done politically. That being the case,
publicly, there are discussions of many succession possible scenarios. Former
TPLF strongman Meles’s crime partner Seeye Abraha told Voice of America (VoA),
“They don’t have a system" [of leadership
succession], Seeye said. “This is a crisis situation and the dust has not
settled.”
On the other side, former US Ambassador to
Ethiopia David Shinn told Voice of America,
“I would be
willing to bet very good money that he has been planning for some way to deal
with this issue in order to insure some kind of reasonable succession of
government in Ethiopia.”
Some speculate that the
army could take over; some say there will be smooth transition of leadership
from within the ranks. Regardless, there is assumption that there will be
change of leadership and that is creating unease for the stakeholders. The sad
part is, the people of Ethiopia will not have a say in this transition. The US
is key stakeholder and, the glaring question is what the role of the US going
to be is?
Thence, the question is
what does the US know about Meles’s whereabouts and condition? Is it possible
for the US not to know what is going on with Meles? The answer, the US knows
exactly what is going on with Meles! And that automatically leads to the
question, what is the US doing?
Obviously, the embassy
in Addis is working overtime as it tries to do many things at once. The key is
to act behind the scene, to give appearance that this is Ethiopian led process.
Firstly, the key is to
maintain stability. For the US, Ethiopia is the most important country in the
region, if not Africa. Ethiopia works as a lynchpin to US agendas in the region
interlinked to US’s South Sudan and Sudan agenda; linked with US Somalia agenda
and US agendas related to the region. Ethiopia’s role in forwarding US interest
vis-à-vis the region is indispensable militarily and politically playing a
pivotal role in forwarding US agendas in the region.
Secondly, to ensure US
agendas, there needs to be smooth transition. Contrary to public rhetoric about
democracy and transparency, the US puts US interests above all. Therefore,
there will be a hidden struggle to ensure a transition that satisfies US
interests.
In the meantime, the US
needs to quite things down, identify a viable candidate, groom him or her,
ensure a consensus amongst the key actors and, place him or her in Menelik
Palace. Once that is in place, sell the leader to the people of Ethiopia and
the international community.
Regardless of what the
people of Ethiopia think about the TPLF/EPRDF’s succession process or lack
thereof, nothing works without the blessing of the US Embassy in Addis. That is
what those interested need to understand. The question is, how successful will
the US be in this patchwork.
After decades of selling
the international community how
important Meles Zenawi is to the stability of Ethiopia and the region; placing
him in positions of international influence and exposure; after providing the
financial means and political cover and after over two decades of enabling
tyranny, the US and its allies do not have a succession plan on place. In
short, they gambled everything on Meles at the expense of the people of
Ethiopia, the region and certainly America’s long-term interest. The crimes, the genocides all over Ethiopia
and Somalia and criminal violations of international laws Meles Zenawi
committed are collateral damages in the eyes of Western nations that funded the
atrocities.
The reality is,
instability looms large and US interest in the region is with Meles in Belgium
in critical condition. The ill-conceived agenda ignored the people and the
region placing more importance on one individual and that is proving costly.
Noting the obvious
Meles Zenawi is or was
the nemesis, scourge and curse of the region. The damages he has done to
Ethiopia and the region is long term. Ethiopia finds itself in precarious place
where no one knows the trigger to the undercurrent that will shake the core of
the nation for good. This will go down in history as one of the greatest
unpunished crimes against humanity.
Yet,
his departure brings new opportunities for the people of Ethiopia and the
region. That takes understanding of the opportunities and willingness to
rewrite history by creating a spirit of collaboration and working for the
common good of the people of the region.
Like
many in the region, I have been following the developments related to the
health and life of tyrant Meles Zenawi keenly. I read many articles, listened
to news accounts and interviews related to the matter. Surprisingly, the views
are consistent that the majority’s desire to see the tyrant’s days
finished. My motivation to write this
piece was heightened after I read an article with the header, “Post-Meles
Possible Scenarios.”
After describing how different post Meles
scenarios can unfold, after knocking and elevating the issues, countries and
personalities in accordance with his views the article concluded with the
following,
“Lastly, the direct intervention and real pressure of Western
powers can have a serious impact in the direction of facilitating the creation
of a government representative of all contending forces. Their pressure can
thwart the scenario of military coup or of a refurbishing rule of the TPLF; it
can even prevent the start of a popular uprising. The two basic conditions for
Western pressure to be effective are: (1) Western powers themselves must show a
united front and act as honest brokers; (2) the opposition must speak with one
voice and credibly argue in favor of a transitional inclusive government. This
last possibility is by far the best course, for it alone promises a peaceful
transition.” Emphasis mine.
I found the above
statement repulsive. Obviously, the author is vying for a position in a
western-brokered process essentially, the continuation of the status-quo. Otherwise, he will know Western powers do not
need his invitation, they are there invitation or not.
The end of Meles’s
regime is precisely the opportunity that the people of Ethiopia and the region
need to expose the negative role the West plays at the expense of the region.
The West had ample time and opportunity to foster inclusive and, just process
that encourages cooperation in Ethiopia and amongst the people of the region.
Instead, they sent President Jimmy Carter to bless a fraudulent election. It is
also telling when Ambassador Shinn “would be
willing to bet very good money that he [Meles] has been
planning” for his succession is not saying much about a transparent process.
The ambassador is betting on his people’s ability per se.
Conclusion
The demise of the
criminal regime is here. However, it does not mean that it will be easy to
scrap-clean the grime that it will leave behind. Above all, however, it is an
opportunity to bring peace, cooperation and prosperity for the people of the
region by trusting each other to bring indigenous solutions to our issues
rather than believing strangers that foment hate. It is time to collectively
lead and bring, to the process, those who are partners rather than masters that
exploit. It is possible to come together as people of the region and make our
voices heard collectively in the quest of bringing peace and solutions for our
people that have endured untold suffering for decades. We have to believe on us
and each other to bring humanity back to us. That is the only choice left and
it is about time. The alternative should not be entertained.
Awetnayu_at_hotmail.com
Received on Sun Aug 05 2012 - 11:40:34 EDT
