http://nhregister.com/articles/2012/08/21/news/doc503417c07c79d546284006.txt?viewmode=fullstory
Is Ethiopia's new leader secure?
Published: Tuesday, August 21, 2012
By The Associated Press
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The death of Ethiopia’s prime minister pushed his
relatively unknown successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, into the spotlight on
Tuesday, and he may be merely a placeholder or might hang on to become
Ethiopia’s next long-time leader.
Ethiopia’s communication minister said government policy would remain
consistent under Hailemariam, the former deputy prime minister and foreign
minister who is now acting prime minister pending his swearing-in before an
emergency session of parliament. The ruling party controls 546 of the 547
seats of parliament, all but ensuring Hailemariam’s ascension to prime
minister.
The country’s armed forces pledged allegiance to the country’s constitution
and vowed to defend it during the post-Meles Zenawi era. Meles died Monday
of an unknown illness at age 57. He had ruled Ethiopia since the 1990s.
Hailemariam was appointed deputy prime minister and minister of foreign
affairs in September 2010, right after the ruling Ethiopian Peoples’
Revolutionary Democratic Front’s fourth successive election victory. A few
weeks after the vote the party’s congress promoted Hailemariam as a deputy
chair of the party.
Although Hailemariam appears likely to soon take the oath of prime
minister, the ruling party congress is scheduled to meet in late September
and will decide if he will remain in the post until the 2015 elections.
Political observers say the party congress could see fierce competition for
the post. One analyst said he doubted Hailemariam could win over the
military and intelligence leaders.
“I believe he will face a great challenge of being taken seriously by his
subordinates ... as he never exercised real power at the national level,
there is little established fear and respect about him,” said Jawar
Mohammed, an Ethiopian political analyst now studying at Columbia
University in New York.
“Second, most of his subordinates are going to be individuals with longer
experience and personal stature than him, which means they will overshadow
him.”
Negasso Gidada, a former Ethiopian president, said he does not know
Hailemariam well.
“But they must know him well and have a confidence in him that they appoint
him a deputy prime minister. I have no reason to doubt that,” says Negasso,
now the country’s largest opposition leader.
The ruling EPRDF, a coalition of four parties has always appointed key
members of Meles’ Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front to key posts, including
foreign affairs.
The change that saw Hailemariam ascend the party ranks was described by
party leaders as the start of a succession plan that later saw lead party
figures leave key government positions to retire or become diplomats
abroad. The party said the succession plan would have come to an end by
2015 with Meles’ retirement.
Charles Stith, the director of Boston University’s African Presidential
Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Tanzania, said Meles’ death could
end a relatively stable period for Ethiopia.
“His death is a reminder that leaders who long to stay in office, often
stay too long to allow the growth of the necessary institutional
infrastructure that allows states to sustain themselves,” Stith said.
Hailemariam, who comes from Ethiopia’s south, did not take part in the
ruling party’s 17-year armed struggle that unseated the country’s former
Communist leader Mengistu Hailemariam in 1991.
When rebels led by Meles marched to the capital Addis Ababa to unseat
Mengistu, Hailemariam was in Finland studying for a masters in engineering
at Tampere University of Technology on a scholarship he received after
obtaining his bachelor’s degree from Addis Ababa University.
Hailemariam said in a 2010 interview that he came back to Ethiopia because
of family — his daughter had been born when he was leaving the country —
and because he said there would be a better situation in the country than
during the previous regime.
After returning from Finland, Hailemariam joined the country’s Arba Minch
Water Technology Institute and served 13 years in different positions,
including as registrar, vice dean, and dean of the institute.
After a few years as a member of the ruling party he was first appointed as
vice president of the country’s southern region and later a president of
the region. He gained political points as the southern region progressed
economically and as ethnic stability improved.
He joined the national political scene in 2006 as and adviser to Meles, and
was soon appointed as the government’s chief whip in parliament. He then
became Meles’ deputy in 2010.
Leslie Lefkow, Human Rights Watch’s deputy director for Africa, said
Ethiopia’s ruling party is strong, but government institutions are not,
opening the door for potential instability in coming days.
“There are a number of worrying scenarios I think, particularly in the
medium term,” she said. “I think it’s a crucial moment for Ethiopia’s
partners — the U.S. and EU and other international donors who provide a
large amount of funding — to set out their concerns that reform and human
rights reform is a crucial plank of the country moving forward.”
Received on Wed Aug 22 2012 - 01:34:59 EDT
