With Hillary Clinton likely to step down as secretary of state,
speculation about her successor is at an all-time high. France24.com
looks at two frontrunners: Senator John Kerry and the more
controversial ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice.
With Hillary Clinton switching gears from strategic
relationship-building in Asia to damage control in the Middle East
within 24 hours, speculation about who will take over for the popular
US Secretary of State when she steps down in the coming months has
reached a fever pitch.
The two figures seen as frontrunners on what is said to be a very
short list are Susan Rice, Obama’s sharp-tongued, poker-faced
ambassador to the UN, and John Kerry, the seasoned senator from
Massachusetts and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate.
Peter Mandaville, a political analyst and professor at George Mason
University who has recently served as a policy advisor to the State
Department, summarised Obama’s choice: “Rice is a tough implementer
who likes to dive right in, grab the contentious issues, and play
hardball. Kerry has diplomatic gravitas, a rich portfolio of
established relationships, and a bit more levity in his approach, but
he might have aides do some of the messy work on his behalf,”
Mandaville said.
Another main difference, Mandaville noted, is the fact that one of the
two is a familiar leader, while the other is not. “We’ve seen Kerry
throughout the years in various leadership roles, so we know what he’d
be like,” the political scientist said. “With Rice, it’s hard to say
exactly how she would operate.”
Rice is said to be Obama’s top pick (the president could offer Kerry
the secretary of defence position as consolation, whispers from the
White House suggest). But one potentially decisive obstacle to her
appointment has emerged: her role in the administration’s
much-criticised response to the deadly attack on the US consulate in
Benghazi, Libya, in September.
Rice elicits gripes, public and private
High-profile Republican senators like John McCain have slammed Rice
for her initial assertion on TV news shows that the incident may have
been a spontaneous protest rather than terrorism (as the White House
subsequently labelled it). “I will do everything in my power to block
her from being the United States Secretary of State,” McCain said on
Fox News, alluding menacingly to the confirmation hearings the Senate
holds for all presidential cabinet nominees. “She has proven that she
either doesn’t understand or she is not willing to accept evidence on
its face.”
McCain’s colleague Lindsey Graham echoed the allegation. “I’m not
entertaining promoting anybody that I think was involved with the
Benghazi debacle,” Graham said on CBS. “Susan Rice needs to be held
accountable.”
The Obama administration has argued that Rice should not, in fact, be
held accountable, since she was reading on-air from a briefing written
by US intelligence agencies.
The president mounted a full-throated defence of Rice during his first
press conference since re-election, bolstering theories that she is
indeed in line for the post. “If Senator McCain and Senator Graham and
others want to go after somebody, they should go after me,” Obama said
testily. “For them to go after the UN ambassador, who had nothing to
do with Benghazi and was simply making a presentation based on
intelligence that she had received, and to besmirch her reputation, is
outrageous.”
Many politicians and pundits have played down the notion that Rice, a
reputedly thorough and independent-minded navigator of thorny foreign
policy matters, messed up by following a faulty script on live TV.
“There were various sources of information flying around when she
spoke,” Mandaville noted. “She was probably going with what she
thought was the safest line of analysis.”
Still, Mandaville said, Obama would be wise not to brush off
admonitions by Republican leaders he might need later. “Obama will
have to give a serious ear to the kinds of positions advanced by
McCain and Graham,” Mandaville noted. “Those are two Republicans who
have been helpful to the administration in calming other conservatives
that are more strident on issues pertaining to the Middle East, for
example.”
There are also far less influential voices of opposition to Rice. “A
lot of people within the Washington DC foreign policy apparatus hate
her,” said a former State Department official who wished to remain
anonymous. “They think she’s overly demanding, strident, and
undiplomatic in how she engages with staff under her. Right now
they’re saying: ‘Oh God, I hope it’s not her!’”
Kerry, the safer choice
According to Mandaville, the 68-year-old Kerry would be “the
preference of many working in the trenches of the US foreign policy
establishment”.
“He’s seen as a towering figure, and his personal style is much better
suited to secretary of state than it was to presidential contender,”
Mandaville said.
Kerry also offers the promise of a drama-free confirmation process.
Though he has frequently clashed with Republican colleagues over
policy, his experience in foreign affairs is undisputed on both sides
of the aisle, making him a shoo-in for approval by fellow senators.
Obama’s preference is another story. Though the president rarely
socialises within political spheres, Rice, who served as an advisor
during the 2008 campaign, is closer to him than most of the
administration heavyweights (she recently brought her husband to
dinner with the first couple).
The 48-year-old also comes with a first-rate pedigree: diplomas from
Stanford and Oxford, wide-ranging diplomatic credentials (she
previously served on former president Bill Clinton’s National Security
Council, and then as one of his advisors on African affairs), and a
generally praised UN tenure (she is said to have been key in securing
tougher sanctions on Iran and North Korea).
Kerry, for his part, is one of Obama’s more valued allies in the party
– he has been solicited for debate preparation, as well as counsel on
Afghanistan and Russia – but remains just outside the president’s
inner circle.
Another name that has been floated as a potential successor to Clinton
is current national security advisor Thomas Donilon. But analysts see
Donilon as a distant third in what may essentially turn out to be a
two-horse race.
If Obama opts for continuity, Mandaville said, Rice could be the
logical pick – despite the fact that she is a lesser known quantity
than Kerry. “Rice would likely play the same kind of generalist role
as Clinton, roaming across a full range of issues. Kerry would
probably focus on specific interests or regions,” he reflected, before
concluding: “Of course, either one will have very big shoes to fill.”
Received on Mon Nov 26 2012 - 12:53:40 EST
