From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Fri Oct 30 2009 - 13:39:49 EST
Saudis being dragged into Yemen war
Published: Oct. 30, 2009 at 12:19 PM
SANAA, Yemen, Oct. 29 (UPI) -- Slowly but surely, Saudi Arabia, which has
traditionally shied away from conflict in favor of diplomacy and buying its
way out of trouble, is being dragged into the Middle East's conflicts as a
participant.
It's happening in Iraq and Iran, but right now the main hotspot is Yemen,
the poorest country on the Arabian peninsula, wracked by tribal
insurrection, southern secessionists and a resurgent al-Qaida.
Things are so bad in Yemen, the most populous country on the peninsula, that
it is in danger of collapsing as a state with its wars and insurrections
spilling over into Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer.
The Saudis have backed Yemen's beleaguered president,
<http://www.upi.com/topic/Ali_Abdullah_Saleh/> Ali Abdullah Saleh, in his
five-year war with Shiite Zaidi rebels in the unruly north, centered on
Saada province.
His government in Sanaa says the tribesmen are backed by Shiite-dominated
Iran, Saudi Arabia's main rival in the oil-rich Gulf, and its proxies in
Iraq and Lebanon.
Tehran denies that. But Sunni-dominated Yemen said in August that it had
captured Iranian-made arms, including machine guns and battlefield rockets,
from the rebels and intercepted a boat carrying six Iranians, possibly
agents or military instructors, off Yemen's coast.
According to Arab officials and Western intelligence sources, the Saudis,
who don't want Iran stirring up trouble on their porous southern flank, have
been financing Saleh's counterinsurgency campaign to the tune of millions of
dollars a week.
There have been repeated reports, largely from the northern rebels who are
known as al-Houthis after the clan leading the rebellion, that the Saudi
military is aiding Saleh's poorly trained and badly equipped forces with
airstrikes against rebel strongholds along the mountainous border.
On Oct. 19 the insurgents claimed Saudi ground forces in the Hasama border
region bombarded the main market town with machine gun and mortar fire.
Authorities in Sanaa deny any Saudi involvement.
According to Texas-based security consultancy Strategic Forecasting, "Yemen
and Saudi Arabia are now seeking out mercenaries, particularly from Ukraine,
to fly Yemen's Soviet-era MiGs and Sukhois in hopes of regaining the upper
hand against the al-Houthis and their Iranian backers in this proxy war."
Saleh's forces, ill equipped and poorly paid, have fared badly against the
rebels since he launched a major scorched-earth offensive against the
al-Houthis in August, supposedly on the ground they broke a cease-fire
agreement but more likely because Saleh feels a need to assert his authority
as the state falls apart.
In those circumstances, Saudi backing is vital if he is to cling to power
and ensure that his son Ahmed, a general who commands the army's special
forces, is to succeed him.
Egypt, another Sunni-led Arab state that opposes Shiite Iran, is also
reported to be aiding Saleh with arms shipments. According to Strategic
Forecasting, "The Egyptians are pushing for sustained airstrikes in . Saada
province, greater U.S. assistance and replacement pilots for Yemen's air
force.
"The Saudi leadership is expected to consult with the United States on the
matter, but efforts already appear to be under way to place more capable
pilots in Yemen's combat jets."
A failed attempt by a Yemeni al-Qaida operative to assassinate the Saudi
prince who heads the kingdom's counterinsurgency campaign in the Red Sea
port of Jeddah on Aug. 17 heightened alarm in Riyadh about the prospect of
Yemen falling apart.
The Saudis fear that al-Qaida, which has been rebuilding its forces in
eastern Yemen after its campaign in Saudi Arabia was crushed in 2006-07,
would exploit the chaos to launch a new offensive against the al-Saud
monarchy.
The Saudis also seem to be taking a tougher line over Iran. The
disappearance and possible defection of an Iranian nuclear scientist in
Saudi Arabia in early June was the first known incident of its kind to occur
in the kingdom.
It pointed to a possible joint operation between Saudi intelligence and the
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency to get their hands on an Iranian with
inside knowledge of Tehran's reported drive to acquire nuclear weapons.
If so, that would be a first. Saudi intelligence, which played a key role
with the CIA in arming Islamist guerrillas against the Soviets in the
1979-89 Afghan War, is also now reported to be aiding dissident forces
inside Iran to counter Iranian encroachment in Iraq as U.S. forces withdraw.
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