From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue Nov 03 2009 - 08:33:28 EST
ANALYSIS - Ethiopian opposition impotent as elections loom
Tue Nov 3, 2009 11:09am IST
By Barry Malone
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - When Ethiopia's opposition leaders were freed from
jail in 2007, the three most prominent were hailed by fanatical supporters
as leaders-in-waiting for sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous nation.
Now, Birtukan Mideksa sits in a prison cell, Berhanu Nega is exiled in the
United States, convicted in absentia of plotting a coup, and Hailu Shawel
only recently re-appeared in public.
That leaves many Ethiopians wondering where a challenge to the almost
20-year-old government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi could come from when
the country holds elections next May for the first time since a disputed
2005 poll ended in violence.
Despite accusations of a crackdown on dissent, diplomats in the capital say
the West would be comfortable with Meles staying on -- as long as he remains
a loyal ally in the volatile Horn of Africa and liberalises his potentially
huge economy.
Secular Ethiopia is Washington's key supporter in the region and sent troops
into neighbouring Somalia in 2006 to oust an Islamist group which had seized
the capital.
"Most Western governments want Meles to continue because there is no
alternative in the opposition," said one diplomat in Addis Ababa who did not
want to be named.
"As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they'll probably stay quiet,
keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full
democracy for later," he said.
Foreign investors, who are showing interest in exporting commodities and
exploring Ethiopia for probable oil and gas deposits, want stability,
analysts say. If the opposition takes power, the future would be uncertain
and investments delayed as foreign governments and lenders jostle for
influence.
Rich nations are also hoping the government will relinquish control of its
potentially lucrative telecommunications and banking industries in a nation
of more than 80 million people.
OPPOSITION FIGURES JAILED
Eight opposition parties are trying to register as a coalition to contest
the polls under the name Medrek, or the Forum, while retaining their own
structures and leadership.
But most people in the country, and even some opposition leaders, agree that
Meles' ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) will
easily win in 2010.
The opposition says this is because candidates are routinely intimidated and
jailed. The government says the opposition parties make the accusations
because they know they have no chance of victory and want to discredit the
poll.
"The EPRDF has done its best to weaken the opposition in view of the 2010
elections," Rene Lefort, an Ethiopia analyst, told Reuters. "Fear of
repression is the main factor which refrains most opposition members from
campaigning actively."
Birtukan, Berhanu and Hailu, leaders of a previous opposition coalition,
were jailed in 2005 with other figures after they were convicted of inciting
supporters to march on state buildings when the government declared victory.
About 200 protesters were killed by police and soldiers on the streets of
the capital in that unrest.
Ethiopia has never had a peaceful transition of power. Meles himself took
over in 1991 after a rebel group led by him and others overthrew a brutal
communist regime.
GENUINE CAMPAIGN?
The opposition leaders were pardoned and released in 2007, along with some
journalists and aid workers, on condition they take responsibility for the
violence.
But Birtukan, a popular 36-year-old single mother, was jailed for life last
December after denying she had accepted blame for the 2005 bloodshed.
Authorities said that violated the terms of her pardon.
The government has said it will invite international election observers,
most likely from the European Union, and last week agreed a "code of
conduct" for next year's elections with three parliamentary opposition
parties.
Medrek -- seen as the most significant threat to Meles -- refused to take
part, demanding bilateral negotiations on issues they say were left out,
including electoral board reform.
Diplomats in Addis Ababa are now trying to persuade the opposition coalition
to sign the code of conduct deal.
Some ruling party members privately told Reuters they were frustrated a deal
could not be agreed, and Birkutan released, so there could be a genuine
campaign on Meles' achievements.
While some 13 million Ethiopians still rely on some form of foreign aid for
survival, the government has reduced infant mortality and poverty rates and
says the economy has been growing at an annual rate of more than 10 percent.
"I don't agree with jailing Birtukan," a senior EPRDF member, who did want
to be named, told Reuters. "She's a strong opponent, but Meles is good for
Ethiopia and I wanted us to debate openly and show the people our economic
achievements."
(Editing by David Clarke)
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