From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue Dec 01 2009 - 15:24:01 EST
Saudis taking lead in battling Huthis: analysts
By Paul Handley (AFP) – 8 hours ago
RIYADH — Saudi Arabia appears to be taking the lead in Yemen's effort to
crush Huthi rebels, despite Riyadh's insistence that it only aims to secure
its porous border, security analysts say.
One month after Saudi forces struck back after rebels carried crossed the
border in a brief but deadly raid, Saudi jets, helicopters and artillery
continued to attack Huthi positions along the Yemeni frontier early this
week, according to Saudi press reports.
On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz stressed that
the goal of the biggest Saudi military mobilisation since the 1990-91 Gulf
War is protecting Saudi sovereignty, not encroaching on Yemen.
Saudi Arabia "will not allow anyone to gain a foothold on its land," he
said.
But analysts say the kingdom's goals are much broader, and they expect the
fighting to continue for some time.
The conflict has crystallised two deep Saudi concerns, they say.
Firstly, there are fears that regional rival Iran could gain a foothold on
Riyadh's southern flank. Yemen and Saudi Arabia have accused Tehran of
backing the Huthis, but there is scant evidence to support such charges.
Secondly, the Huthi incursion exposed the ease with which anyone, including
the Yemen-based Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), could sneak in to
launch attacks against Saudi targets.
The Huthis, minority Zaidi Shiites concentrated in Yemen's northwest corner,
have been fighting the government for five years and came under heavy
pressure when President Ali Abdallah Saleh launched Operation Scorched Earth
in August to finally crush them.
The campaign pressed the Huthis up against the border where Saudi forces had
been quietly assisting Saana with money and logistics.
But with Saana's effort flagging, Riyadh took advantage of the November 3
incursion, in which Huthi fighters killed a Saudi border guard and occupied
two small Saudi border villages, to jump into the fray.
Saudi forces loosed fighter-bombers, heavy artillery and special forces
against Huthi positions along the border.
Shelling well into Yemen's Saada province was a risky break in Riyadh's
insistence that it does not interfere in the internal affairs of its
neighbours.
Theodore Karasik, director of research and development at the Dubai-based
Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said Riyadh has probably
taken the lead in battling the Huthis.
"Its probably true that the Saudis have taken the initiative with Yemeni
support," Karasik said.
"From the Saudi point of view the existence of a Huthi 'state' with the
support of Iran is intolerable. They are going to squeeze the Huthis, to
shut them down," he said.
"For Saudi Arabia it is an existential threat," said a foreign analyst,
explaining the huge Saudi mobilisation.
The border incident was "not a big deal", but for Riyadh it was the "last
straw."
The escalation reflects Riyadh's dismay at the weakness of Yemeni President
Ali Abdallah Saleh's regime. Its focus on the Huthis has allowed other
challenges, like AQAP and a secessionist movement in the south, to gain
strength.
Instead of just repulsing the Huthis, Saudi forces have locked down both the
border and Yemen's Red Sea coastline to cut off their supply of arms and
food, they say.
The Saudi mobilisation and daily shelling has helped box in the militants
along the rugged border, putting their ability to continue fighting under
pressure.
The Saudis seek to create a permanent 20-kilometre (12 mile) wide no-go zone
straddling the border, and has vacated scores of villages on the Saudi side
to that end, according to regional security expert Anwar Eshki.
That would cut off a huge amount of undocumented crossing that has long
taken place for social and commercial reasons.
"The problem in Yemen gave us a good chance to fix our border problem," said
the former Saudi general, head of the Middle East Center for Strategic and
Legal Studies in Jeddah.
The November 3 incident proved that anyone, including terrorists, could
easily cross into the country.
It came only weeks after Saudi authorities caught AQAP operatives, disguised
as women, in Jizan province opposite Saada. They were in a car full of
weapons, explosives and suicide vests believed smuggled from Yemen.
"If the Huthis can infiltrate, then Qaeda can," said an analyst.
Saudis say that they have captured large numbers of "infiltrators,"
including Yemenis, Somalians and Ethiopians, since they mobilised the
military. But most of these are traders or undocumented immigrants sneaking
into the country to find jobs, the analysts say.
There is still no clear information on the size of the Huthi force and what
their goals now are after enduring the heavy assault from both sides.
One foreign analyst said they appear to be crossing into Saudi Arabia to
find supplies, and that Riyadh's determination to establish a wide cordon
sanitaire is frustrating those efforts.
Karasik said they are still driven by tribal instincts. "It's clan warfare.
You don't give up. It's about pride and family."
That, he added, could explain Saudi persistence. Riyadh could be seeking to
"punish them into submission," he said.
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