From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Dec 08 2009 - 08:40:48 EST
Sudan: Tensions and warning signs of a North-South civil war?
<http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&pub=afrik> Tuesday 8 December
2009 / by Konye Obaji Ori
http://en.afrik.com/local/cache-vignettes/L185xH248/arton16608-73154.jpg
The die may have been cast in Sudan as Southern Sudanese take to the streets
demanding electoral reform and independence, following the arrest of their
leaders in Khartoum. The office of Sudan President Omar al-Bashir's party in
the south was burnt, protesters were arrested and tensions are reportedly
rising.
Analysts say the argument and crackdown of protestors over electoral laws is
an unambiguous sign of the north-south fissure. Three southern leaders and
dozens of protesters were detained on Monday in a crackdown against a
pro-electoral reform demonstration. South Sudan Peoples liberation Movement
(SPLM) secretary general Pagan Amum was
<http://en.afrik.com/article16602.html> arrested along with his deputy Yasir
Arman and Abbas Gumma, a state minister in the interior ministry.
"These arrests are not only provocative but unjustified, because the interim
national constitution of the Sudan and the CPA allow for peaceful and
democratic procession," Southern president Salva Kiir was quoted as he
condemned the arrests.
Tensions between SPLM and the National Congress Party (NCP) has resurfaced
as national elections draw near. A 2005 peace agreement had resolved the 22
year way between Northern and southern Sudan. Reform and changes to the
electoral law were key aspects of the 2005 peace accord which ended the war
regarded as Africa's longest-running civil war.
The forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections which would be
Sudan's first multi-party polls in 24 years, are expected to pave the way
for a referendum in 2011 in which the south will choose whether to become
independent, as stipulated under the 2005 deal. But the SPLM and the NCP
have failed to agree on changes to the election laws.
In regard to the call for electoral reform, as many as 20 opposition parties
invited supporters to gather in front of the Khartoum parliament building to
demand electoral reform. As demonstrators marched through Khartoum and its
neighbouring city Omdurman they waved placards and chanted: "We want our
freedom." Conversely, dozens of other protesters were detained, and the SPLM
members have since accused the NCP of suppressing free speech.
"We call upon all Sudanese people to remain calm... and exercise their
constitutional rights of expression within the law," Kiir added.
Prior to Mondays protests and arrests, however, police had announced that
the demonstration to push for reforms ahead of national elections next year
and an independence referendum for south Sudan scheduled for 2011 would be
considered illegal.
No free and fair elections
According to Human Rights Watch, Sudan does not have the conditions for free
and fair elections. The Human Rights report states that that armed conflict
in Darfur is unresolved, and the National Congress party-led government in
Khartoum has stepped up repressive tactics throughout the northern states
with arbitrary arrests and detentions, as well as censorship and harassment
of journalists and activists.
Also, divisions within the southern party of SPLM is reported to increase
the sense of volatility in southern Sudan where a rise in ethnic violence
has left some 1,200 dead this year alone. According to experts, the security
problems in the south could interrupt the election process.
Release
Pagan Amum, Yassir Arman and Abbas Gumma from the former rebel Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) were freed after a few hours. They
celebrated their release at the movement's headquarters in Khartoum along
with thousands of supporters. A referendum on whether the south should
secede is due in 2011.
Dr. James Smith, the chief executive of the Aegis trust, a British group
that campaigns against crimes against humanity told reporters that: "The
tensions that flared between north and south Sudan in the wake of these
arrests are a warning sign that the international community cannot afford to
ignore. Even if the status quo can be maintained for the moment, in the
absence of strong, sustained and intelligent international diplomacy, Sudan
could well return to all-out war by the time the referendum is due on
southern independence."
Ahead of the registration exercise, which ends this week, experts also
pointed out that another point of contention was the registration of
expatriates, with the south pushing for flexible arrangements that would
allow as many people as possible to register. The north favors more
restrictive procedures as it fears that Sudanese living abroad would favor
the SPLM. The elections and the referendum in particular could lead to
renewed conflict and hold the potential for a humanitarian disaster.
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----
