From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Dec 09 2009 - 05:46:59 EST
Yemen's Dangerous Escalation
9 Dec 2009
Saudi Arabia's military engagement in Yemen has raised fears of the
internationalization of the al-Houthi conflict, but is a proxy war really in
the offing? From ISN Security Watch.
By ISN Security Watch staff for ISN Security Watch
_____
Yemeni government forces pressed ahead with a major offensive against
al-Houthi militants in Sa'ada city on Tuesday in a further intensification
of the conflict in the country's northwest.
Both sides are claiming military successes against the other but it is
difficult to ascertain the true trajectory of the fighting, which has drawn
in Saudi forces since a short-lived incursion into the kingdom by al-Houthi
forces in early November.
What is certain is that this - the fifth round of fighting since 2004 in the
on-again, off-again conflict - has been particularly intense and has led to
a major humanitarian crisis. Around 190,000 people have been forced to leave
their homes in northern Yemen and Saudi border villages.
Al-Houthi
The militancy is led by the al-Houthi clan, considered descendants of the
Prophet Muhammad, entitled to a traditional leadership role under the Shia
Zaydi imamate, which ruled areas of northern Yemen before dissolution in the
1962 republican revolution.
As in conflicts elsewhere in Yemen, tribal ties have played an important
role. <http://www.presstv.ir/textonly/detail.aspx?id=112862> Iran's Press
TV reports that some of the more prominent tribes in Sa'ada (Hashid, Bakil,
Va'el and Khoulan) have been split in their support for either the
government or militancy.
A Gulf analyst with an intimate knowledge of the conflict, who asked that
her identity be protected, told ISN Security Watch that within the
militancy, "There are different groups, and they have different interests.
"You have the core Houthis, which are centered on the family [.] and they do
have an interest in establishing an area or a territory which is out of the
control of the state. They would like to have their own authority in this
territory over what you pray in the mosque, what you teach in schools," she
said, citing the now pragmatically defunct February 2008 Doha peace
agreement between the al-Houthis and the government, mediated by the
Qataris.
Others are "people who actually joined the Houthis after the first wars,
when the government came down very strictly on Houthi sympathizers," she
said.
An abiding sense amongst some Zaydis of marginalization and discrimination
at the hands of the government, and tensions exacerbated by pervasive,
deeply entrenched socio-economic deprivation also play an important role in
stoking the conflict.
Poisoned relations
It is still too early to tell what the full impact of Saudi involvement in
the conflict will be on wider regional tensions, but there are already signs
that it is having a deleterious impact on already fraught relations with
Iran.
Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani slammed the Saudi military
intervention on Friday. He claimed that Riyadh had repeatedly been on the
wrong side of regional conflicts,
<http://www.tehrantimes.com/Index_view.asp?code=209279> implying Saudi
support for Israel's 2006 attack on Hizbollah and 2008-2009 operation in
Gaza.
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government has joined the Saudis in
accusing Iran of supporting the rebels. Sana'a's Iranian Hospital was closed
amid claims that it was helping al-Houthi rebels, and a boulevard in the
capital was renamed after a demonstrator killed in the post-election
protests in Iran earlier this year.
"Some Houthi loyalists claim that they have been trained by Iranian and
Hizbollah militants [in] camps in Yemen and [.] the Horn of Africa," Yemen
Post Chief Editor Hakim Almasmari told ISN Security Watch.
<http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-2009-11-11-voa30-69822862.html>
Yemen reports that its forces seized an Iranian ship carrying arms to the
al-Houthis in October, but there is little clear evidence of direct Iranian
military support for the rebellion.
The Gulf analyst agrees with this assessment, while cautioning: "The longer
the conflict takes [.] the more likely will be the chance that Iran is
trying to put a foot in, either in offering to mediate, as they have already
done, or in trying to be the protector of Shia groups."
It remains unclear what purpose the conflict could serve for Iran given
sporadic efforts by the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad administration in recent years
to ease strained relations with a number of Gulf states and to assure
Bahrain, which has a Shia majority, of Iranian non-interference in its
domestic affairs.
It is important not to overstate the impact of the al-Houthi conflict
Saudi-Iranian tensions
"I don't see a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran," the Gulf analyst
said.
Saudi concerns
For the Saudis, their involvement in the conflict threatens the prospect of
being bogged down in what has proved a grinding and perhaps intractable
conflict and of potential military reverses being taken as signs of weakness
by regional rivals.
Almasmari argued that many tribesmen have been joining the militancy, "not
for love of the Houthis but for the sake of being against the Saudis."
Riyadh is already being
<http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/saudi-arabian-authorities-must-i
nvestigate-reported-killing-civilians-yemen-2009> brought to task by Amnesty
International over civilian deaths in Saudi bombing raids in Yemen. The
al-Houthi and Iran claim that the Saudis are using white phosphorous in some
of these strikes.
While militarily damaging to the al-Houthi cause, Saudi involvement is
actually a fillip for both the Sana'a government and the rebel movement,
partially shifting the fighting and financial burden of the conflict from
the Saleh government. For the rebels, it provides for the potential further
internationalization of the conflict. This may act, over time, to transform
their militancy from a damaging but largely contained rebellion to one with
broader implications for regional power plays, if not stability.
Referring to the al-Houthi rebellion, the Gulf analyst said: "The Saudis
have generally tried to stay out of it," adding, "It is not their policy,
they would rather stay away from military conflict." She argues that the
Saudis chose to become involved in the fighting as a defensive move.
A Saudi inability to disengage, coupled with the diplomatic play being made
of the kingdom's involvement by Iran, may also have an impact on domestic
sectarian relations.
Of particular concern for the Saudis will be the spread of the fighting to
the area bordering the kingdom's predominantly Shia Najran province.
<http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2009/09/03/denied-dignity> Human Rights
Watch published a report in September in which it alleged that the Saudi
government engages in systematic discrimination against Shia in education,
the justice system, state employment and with regard to "religious freedom."
"The war could now spread to the south of Saudi Arabia," Almasmari said.
"The fear is that these Shia Najranis could cooperate with the Houthis."
The Gulf-based analyst differs. "There are no linkages between the Ismailis,
the Twelver Shia [both in Saudi Arabia] and the Zaydis. Going back in
history there are no points at which they in any way cooperated against, for
example, the Saudi government," she said.
She noted that King Abdullah has reached accommodations with Saudi "Shia
minorities. And they [Shia] profit from these right now, so they will not
jeopardize their relations with the government by making statements [of
support] for the [Yemeni] Zaydis."
Bleak prospects
Perhaps the most disturbing element of the recent upsurge in fighting is the
clear absence of conflict management or resolution mechanisms in the wake of
the collapse of Qatari efforts.
Yemen's key ally the US - clearly concerned at the trajectory of the
conflict and wider security challenges facing the Saleh government - signed
a
<http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-2009-11-11-voa30-69822862.html>
military cooperation pact with Yemen in November.
Almasmari argues that the US decided on the pact once it became clear that
the Saudis had become embroiled in the conflict and that the "Houthis [had]
caused the Saudis direct harm."
The agreement is likely to promote the impression in Sana'a that the US
stands firmly behind the government's prosecution of its current offensive.
It comes despite the clear failure of Yemen's security forces, over the last
half decade, to overcome the militants militarily.
"There will be no negotiations, no peace agreements at all [.] in the next
year or so," Almasmari said.
"Yemenis would not accept the US as mediator; public opinion is very
critical of the US," the Gulf analyst noted, adding, "I don't see that there
is one EU state that could mediate at this time."
"The Yemenis have made clear that they don't want outside interference on
this issue," she said.
Editor's note:
The name of the author has been withheld for security reasons.
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