From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Fri Dec 18 2009 - 10:08:51 EST
Sudanese politics - Heading towards independence
Dec 18th 2009 | KHARTOUM
>From The Economist print edition
A new referendum law makes the break-up of Sudan more likely
SUDAN is unaccustomed to good news. But on December 13th the ruling party of
the north, the National Congress Party (NCP), and the former rebels who
control the south agreed on the terms for a referendum in 2011 over southern
independence. The question now is whether that just sets up the next fight.
A peace agreement in 2005 ended a conflict between the north and the south
that had endured for the best part of 50 years and claimed over 2m lives.
But the deal had come under increasing strain in the past few years, not
least over the exact terms of its most important provision, the referendum
in the south on whether it wants to secede. Now, however, the NCP and the
south's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) have at last worked
out most of the details. Fears of more fighting between the two sides have
thus receded-if only a bit.
According to the new agreement, the south will become independent if
50%-plus-one vote for secession, as long as the turnout is at least 60%. The
north, reluctant to see the oil-rich south secede, had previously insisted
on a majority of two-thirds on a turnout as high as 75% or more. That would
have made a vote for independence almost impossible in a region of low
literacy and abysmal infrastructure.
Under the new terms, the south is almost certain to vote for secession.
Ethnic and cultural differences between the Muslim north and the mainly
Christian and animist south have remained deep in the 53 years since Sudan's
independence from British colonial rule. Most southerners feel that, even
during brief periods of peace, they have received no benefits at all from
being ruled by various Islamic parties in Khartoum.
The question now is whether the two sides will stick to the new arrangement.
"The NCP is planning to renege on its commitments, because it wants our
petrodollars," the SPLM secretary-general, Pagan Amum, said in the heated
atmosphere before the deal was struck. Southern leaders still fear the NCP
will not keep its promises, as so often in the past. For its part, the NCP
worries that the SPLM will scare voters in the south into saying yes.
So the run-up to the referendum could still produce more conflict. And
before that there is the small matter of next April's national elections,
the first since 1986. The agreement of December 13th did not include the
reform of any other election laws. The registration of more than 15m people
to vote has been surprisingly successful, but northern opposition groups, as
well as the SPLM, have argued that unless the state relaxes laws on freedom
of speech and assembly, and ends arbitrary arrests, then the NCP will enjoy
an unfair advantage next year. Protests against the government on this in
Khartoum have been met with brutal police retaliation in the past weeks,
including scores of arrests. As ever in Sudan, the celebrations leave plenty
to worry about.
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