From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Dec 29 2009 - 08:26:32 EST
Sudan passes law on southern independence vote
Tue Dec 29, 2009 10:49am GMT
* Parliament passes referendum law
* Analysts see separation as almost inevitable
By Khaled Abdelaziz
KHARTOUM, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Sudan's parliament passed a long-disputed law
governing a southern vote on independence on Tuesday, defusing a political
crisis after months of wrangling between the north-south coalition
government partners.
Analysts believe that the referendum in January 2011 will almost inevitably
result in southern Sudan voting to separate from the north, with which it
fought a civil war that cost the lives of two million people.
Delays in implementing the 2005 peace deal that capped more than two decades
of conflict pushed the former foes into a political collision over the law.
Analysts warn that lingering distrust between the two sides could bring
about a resumption of hostilities with the potential to destabilise much of
east Africa.
"This law is not a law of separation for south Sudan but is a law for the
referendum. We all need to unite Sudan and work towards unity," said deputy
speaker Atem Garang of the former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM).
"This law has given southerners who came to the north fleeing the war a
chance to vote," said top National Congress Party official Ibrahim Ghandour.
Last week the dominant Islamist NCP forced through an amended version of the
law despite a walkout by the SPLM, but quickly agreed to review the bill
after criticism from Washington.
The law passed on Tuesday states southerners living in the north can vote
there unless they were born before Jan. 1, 1956. Those born before 1956
would need to register and vote in the south.
Some 60 percent of south Sudanese voters need to turn out for the referendum
to be valid and a simple majority of 51 percent must vote for either unity
or independence.
Sudan analysts warn that any hint of meddling in the referendum would force
the south to unilaterally secede and likely prompt a return to war.
Both the NCP and the SPLM say they do not want a return to the bitter
conflict over ideology, ethnicity and religion, which ruined the budding oil
producing nation's economy and drove 4 million people from their homes.
The International Crisis Group think tank's Africa director, Francois
Grignon, said a southern vote for independence was "almost certain", a
sentiment echoed by many southerners.
But many fear with the referendum just one year away there has been little
planning for separation by either the Sudanese or the international
community with many potential flashpoints still left unresolved.
The north-south border, along which many of Sudan's oil fields lie, has
still not been drawn and oil-rich Abyei's status, as well as that of two
other central states, is still not clear.
Abyei will vote on whether to join the south or not and the law outlining
that referendum is due before parliament later on Tuesday.
Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states are to hold "popular consultations"
on their status and the SPLM wants parliament to pass that law before it
ends its session on Wednesday. (Writing by Opheera McDoom; editing by Giles
Elgood)
C Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
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