In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday 26 Oct 1999, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, warned that war could break out again. In addition he reiterated his readiness for war, saying, ``if peaceful means are not available, we reserve the right to defend ourselves". What is surprising is the very next day, on Wednesday 27 Oct. 1999, Ethiopia issued a statement saying "it had repelled two weekend attacks by Eritrean forces at the western end of the disputed border" P Eritrea called it a ``laughable'' statement.

There is something fishy here. Why did the Prime Minister say, "war could break out again", when (if someone is to believe their Wednesday Statement), "war has already broken out on the weekends"? Was he not informed on Tuesday, about the phantom war, which is supposed to have taken place over the weekends?

Why is the "war could breakout" prediction of the Prime Minister made to coincide with the "war has broke out" statement of the spokes person of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia? Why issue two contradicting statements in the space of less than 24 hours?

At face value, for untrained eyes, reading these contradicting statements would leave a lasting impression. Hence, one could not help but appreciate the phantom war predication capability of the Prime Minister. I believe that the international and regional organisations that are interested on "Conflict Prevention" and "Conflict Prediction and Early Warning Systems (CPEWS)" would be very much keen to employ the skills of the TPLF regime.

If one is to buy CPEWS, which is a highly regarded skill, one of the required factors is its RELIABILITY. Reliability in its scientific sense is the ability to reproduce the same data repeatedly and consistently. But it also means trustworthy, dependable, and honesty. The sad thing is that, these vocabularies have been proven time and again, not to be available in the TPLF dictionary.

As far as the international community is concerned, statements such as "Ethiopia has repulsed Eritrean attacks" could serve the purpose of "Conflict Prediction and Early Warning Systems (CPEWS)" in the sense that, Ethiopia is once again creating phantom Eritrean attacks in order to start its third round all out war. But the trustworthiness of the CPEWS, in the case of Ethiopia, has miserably failed on several occasions, ever since the start of this senseless conflict.

Ethiopia has being creating phantom Eritrean attacks whenever it wanted to start war. In June 5 1998, when Ethiopia bombarded the Eritrean capital city, Asmara, it said "It is Eritrea who first bombed Mekele" P an accusation which has been established to be an outright lie. When Ethiopia wanted to start itsU all out war against Eritrea in February 1999, it said, "Eritrea has bombed a phantom place in Adi-Girat". Again, independent western media and the diplomatic community in Ethiopia promptly established that, the accusation was fictitious.

In March 1999, when Eritrea reported that Ethiopia has started another attack on the Tsorona front, Ethiopia denied the existence let alone the extent of its attack. Once more western media proved that the Ethiopian attack on the Tsorona front was one of the major battles to have ever taken place in this senseless conflict.

The Ethiopian statement of "it has repulsed Eritrean attack on border", is a manifestation of its desire to pursue its war agenda. Ethiopia has chosen to follow its war agenda in defiance to the will of the people of Tigray, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the OAU, UN and the international community at large who are seeking the peaceful resolution of this senseless conflict. The Oct 27 1999 Statement of Ethiopia could only serve, at its best, the purpose of Early Warning System, in that Ethiopia is trying to find any excuse to start the war. Therefore, the international community must act now in taking all punitive measures against Ethiopia, before it is to late.

Let there be peace in our region.

God Bless