Ethiopia's dream of ending the conflict quickly by starting another war is a distorted logic. The quickest way to end the war is to sign the OAU peace documents that Eritrea said is ready to sign. If those documents are signed peace is immediate. Other than that no border dispute will end quickly by fighting a war. Except for Ethiopian leaders no body will think the same.
Furthermore, if the TPLF really thinks that it can change the resolve of the Eritrean people to defend their country through sheer power it better think twice and we suggest that it look at the pages of Eritrean history of the past 30 years.
Eritrea's determination to defend its territory was tested during the struggle for independence. About a quarter million troops, hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles, close to a hundred Russian MiGs, and Russian, East German and Cuban Military Generals had attempted to end the Eritrean war for independence "quickly". But instead of Eritrea's it was Ethiopia's "might" that was crushed in a humiliating defeat. Operation Nadew and Fenqil are testimonies to that.
Similarly the massive human wave attacks Ethiopia unleashed on Badma and Tserona in February and March 1999 were not able to destroy Eritrean will to protect its hard won independence. We were told at the time that Ethiopia had got "total victory" and the Shilu even laughed at a journalist by saying "do you want us to fight with ghosts?" She was implying there was no Eritrean soldier left in the Mareb-Setit front. Well what are we reading lately? Another "major victory" around Badme. If the Ethiopians had any credibility they would have chosen to "shut up", for they are exposing themselves that they had lied about their so called "total victory" from last year.
What might sound more puzzling is why the UNSC has demanded of Ethiopia and Eritrea to "immediately cease all military action and refrain from further use of force," and in the same breath gave them 72 hours to comply. Why 72 hours?
First, we need to understand how UNSC resolutions are written, especially if the issue is of interest to the U.S. The UNSC resolutions are written in the U.S. Statement Department. This one is no different. Rice, Smith and Lake must have written it. These three are still sore at Eritrea because of Eritrea refused to make a paper out of their "Non-Paper". As we are told by the OAU the "non-paper" was written behind Eritrea's back and right out of Meles' November memorandum.
In my opinion, the UNSC resolution, in effect, is telling Meles to "put up or shut up." If he can do what he said he would do, reclaim Zalambessa and Altiena in the next 24 hours, fine, the UNSC won't object. This should satisfy him that the UNSC has allowed him to "reverse aggression." This means Rice, Smith and Lake have delivered on their promise to Meles.
However, the 72 hour logic has two major flows: the first is that Meles cannot do what he boasted doing in 72 months let alone 72 hours. Thus the resolve of the UNSC will be tested in a day. If we take a lesson from history however, we should expect nothing. The UNSC will go no further than talk.
The other flow is that the UNSC thinks Meles will negotiate on the rest of the peace proposal if he "liberates" what he calls his "occupied territories". Anyone who believes that must be naïve. The Woyane's desire is to try to go all the way, sanction or no sanction. Would they succeed? Of course not! The UNSC might want the TPLF to succeed, but they do not have what it takes to succeed, the backing of an army that fights for justice and truth and a population solidly behind them.
In any case, the UNSC have given Meles to reverse in 72 hours what Eritrea
has won in 30 years. This is not the first time the UN has done Eritrea
wrong. I am afraid it may not be the last time. If we were fighting just
Ethiopia, it's one thing. But fighting the entire international community?
That's tough but we fought alone and won in the past and the future is
not going to be any different.