" according to Centcom, Ethiopian general staff considers it has only one chance in two thousand of success and it doesn't want to miss out."

THE INDIAN OCEAN NEWSLETTER #891 - 12/02/2000

Did we read correctly? Is there a typo somewhere in the above statement? How much senselessness does it require to say "we have one chance in two thousand" and we don't "want to miss out"?

One in two thousand! What does this mean? Of course this is an expression of probability and in probability, conclusions can never be drawn with absolute certainty. In other words, no one can tell when this one in two thousand chance of success could occur. It could come after the first attempt, 100 attempts, two thousand, after a million, or even after a finitely large number. The issue here is not in that one should loose hope of success because its likelihood is one in two thousand. The issue is if the probability is this low, why say "we don't want to miss out"? Though no one could predict which direction the wind of war will blow at the end of the day, should one go on the offensive unless he/she has more than 50/50 chance of victory? What do you loose by accepting peace if your chances of loosing in an offensive, by your own admission, is 1999 out of 2000? Does it ever make sense to vote on continuation of the path of destruction while you yourself have calculated your chance of success is so low?

When you have one in two thousand chance of success, your chance, simply put, is close to nothing. One of course could argue, and rightly so, the chance still is 0.0005, a positive number, and larger than zero. True, but we are not talking of tossing a coin for a game, or playing a lottery that costs only a dollar. What is at stake here is human life. Yes, the lives that are at stake are the lives of hundreds of thousands of fenjiregatchs, people who have no stake in the prosperity and peace of Ethiopia but in its costly wars. The lives of the peasants of Oromia, Wolayita, Sidama, Benshangul,  or even Amhara, and Tigray. Having hundreds of thousands of expendable people could only be the explanation for the rush into a war when they admit their chance of winning it is "one in two thousand".

There are those who say "Ethiopia should easily mobilize ten times the size of the Eritrean forces and overrun the Eritrean trenches by 'brute force' and human wave attacks." This could as well be the other reason why, even as low as it is, the "one in two thousand" chance of wining is considered a chance that should not be missed out. This could also explain why the Woyanes had to take all the looses they took in 1998 (Bure), and 1999 (Badma and Tserona), close to 70,000 in total and still want to continue fighting. But how should the Ethiopian people take this kind of strategy? How should they react to a strategy that says "we have one in two thousand chance of winning and we shouldn't miss out"? Should they stand still as their children are being fed as cannon fodders and massacred as fenjiregatchs? Would the TPLF leaders have been so hardheaded to insist on war if those who are being sent to war were their own brothers and sisters, or worse yet their own children or themselves? We don't think so.

Thoughtful leaders would always avoid war, especially if what they could get by war they can get peacefully. In war there are no certainties. As you try to destroy others, chances are that you would also be destroyed. Number is not necessarily proportional to fire-power and victory. Also in war there is always the possibility of ending up in the ditch you dug for your enemies. Given what they are doing so far, none of us can say the TPLF leaders are wise or thoughtful of their people. The sad thing is as they go down the drain they seem determined to take down Ethiopia and its resources with them. Should they be given even one in two thousand chance of destroying Ethiopia? We should leave this to the people of Ethiopia to answer.