The woyanes know how to navigate smoothly in a world full of lies and treachery, to a degree Eritreans cannot imagine. They are masters of the equivalent of the diplomatic "con game" reminiscent of the "now you see, no you don't" card games huckesters used to play way back when on Asmara's sidewalks. When I think of Meles and Seyoum I am reminded of the card magicians who used to fleece unsuspecting pedestrians at the drop of a card. They rarely got cought because the police often took pity on them. They looked harmless. Even when they suffered a "testa" (head-butt) or two from one of their enraged victims, they are the first ones to say, "ooooiiii..p-o-l-i-s." The police would immediately haul the victim to the police station before he had a chance to explain what happened to his money. The hucksters move to the next sidewalk in search of other victims.

Take Meles, Seyoum and that entire cabal of TPLF ruling elite. These guys are masters of deception. Their stealth encroachment on Badme and beyond exploded in their face in early June. All of a sudden the poachers swore to a gullible world that they were the real victims. They ordered their shipping agents not to use Asab or Massawa. Then they turned around and accused Eritrea of closing the ports on them. They bombed Amara at 2:00 PM.on June 5. Eritrea retaliated at 2:50PM the same day. They told the world their bombing of Asmara was in retaliation for an erlier bombing of Mekele. An out and out lie. Before Eritrea knew it, the world had believed them. Eritreans came off as the heavies; and they, the victims. Makes one wander whether there really is justice in this world.

And much to EritreaUs chagrin, Ethiopian leaders have been milking their victim-hood to the maximum, to convince the international community to come and get Eritrea, since they know they can't. Perhaps it's in their political culture. I really don't know. What I know is that Eritreans never make good victims. They just don't ask for pity. Ethiopians do, and they get a sympathetic hearing. Eritreans don't, and all they get is deaf ears. See how long it took Amnesty International to verify what Eritreans have been saying the last eight months. Eight months and 52 000 expellees later. Here lies EritreaUs dilemma, in a nutshell.

Surely, truth has a way of eventually coming out. But eight months? I suspect it took so long for truth to come out because there was a conspiracy of silence at work. The OAU, EU, U.S., Canada, Italy, Great Britain and others knew full well of the scope of the deportations of Eritreans and Ethiopians of Eritrean decent from their homes in Ethiopia. They know about the concentration camps Eritrean people are languishing in. They know about the deaths there. They know about the incarceration about Eritrean university students. They also knew Ethiopia's charges that Eritrea has been mistreating and deporting Ethiopian nationals, were bare faced lies. Yet you would not know this from reading the various OAU proposals, the Security Council statements, or the official statements from the various governments. It was a massive cover up designed to protect Meles Zenawi and his minority government. .

From day one of the conflict, the Americans took the position that Meles's government had to be saved from its own foolish vow that it would not engage in peace talks unless Eritrean forces left Badme. The Americans knew full well that Badme was Eritrean. If Meles failed to deliver on his promise, the Americans reasoned that Meles's days were numbered. Therefore, he had to be supported even if that means putting pressure on Eritrea to abandon a piece of its territory to make it look like Meles delivered on his promise. It was nothing but smoke and mirrors designed to make Meles look good, to convince his political opponents that he was able to stand up to the Eritreans. This is the basis for American support for Meles. What makes the American position farcical is Washington's expectation that Eritrea plays its part in the con game to help Meles look good. I am sure there are ways Eritrea can do to make Meles good, but I doubt if giving them a piece of Eritrean land is one of them.

The Horn of Africa is on the verge of a catastrophe not because of the brilliance of TPLF's diplomacy but because those on whom Eritrea put its trust to help it find a peaceful resolution to the conflict sold it short. They decided early on to take sides, though they told Eritrea they would be evenhanded. They were not. Right from the start they decided to put pressure on Eritrea. They left Eritrea alone at the mercy of Ethiopian MIGs, thinking that Eritrea would succumb. Eritrea didn't, thanks to its puny air force. As if that were not enough, those Eritreans thought were their friends flew to Burkina Faso, to organize the entire OAU to stand against them. It was a pincers movement, meant to cut Eritrea down to size. Eritrea handled the MIGs, but it has been having nothing but problems from the OAU which in itself is nothing but an ill disguised front for Washington.

More than anyone, the OAU and the U.S have done Eritrea in. All the recent flurries of diplomatic pronouncements have been orchestrated to placate TPLF's expansionist appetite at Eritrea's expense. The OAU's 11 point Framework is being foisted on Eritrea, although it has serious reservations about some of the points. It didn't seem to matter that Ethiopia continues to reject the cornerstone of the 11 point proposal: rejection of use of force for settling the dispute. Ethiopia can not say it reserves the right to use force, and at the same time claim it has accepted the 11 point proposals. Yet no one is pressuring Ethiopia to reject the use of force. Eritrea has been asked to "temporarily" vacate Badme and its environs as a gesture of goodwill. But then no one is willing to tell Eritreans the coordinates for Badme or how far its environs are supposed to extend. Or, the OAU Framework does not require of Ethiopia to make reciprocal gesture of goodwill say, for example, by agreeing not to use force to settle the dispute. No, all the "givings" are from the Eritrean side. The demands are horribly asymmetrical. One assumes that the OAU/Washington found it easier to pick on Eritrea perhaps because it's new and small. Ethiopia is going scott free because Ethiopia is a much bigger fish and has friends in high places. It's unfair and unjust, but then, not totally unexpected. Eritreans have seen it before.

Meles has not budged an inch from his initial negotiating position, because he knows he didn't have to. He has everyone lined up on Ethiopia's side. He played victim-hood to the hilt. And he knows that as long as the U.S is using its prestige to compel Eritrea directly and indirectly to accept the 11 points he stands a good chance of getting a backdoor validation for the 1997 Makele Map. Although Meles has been exquisitely deceptive about his real intentions, there's no doubt that what he has in mind is how best to get acceptance of the 1997 Mekele Map of Tigrai. For him and his TPLF comrades what's at issue is getting international acceptance of the new borders that he unilaterally drew to encompass a swath of Eritrean territory. Perhaps the world does not fully understand the scope of TPLF's territorial ambition. Eritreans know full well the contours of the grand deception even when the rest of the world does not.

If Ethiopia is not ready to make peace, and every indication is that it's not, then it's because Meles believes the U.S will use its influence to force Eritrea to accede to Ethiopia's terms. Meles and his pals seem to think as long as they have the U.S on their side, Eritrea would have no choice but see itself truncated. It's a monumental foolishness, but apparently these guys have become victims of their self deception. Eritreans know Ethiopia is staying put because it expects the worldUs greatest power will flex its considerable muscle to whip Eritrea in line, and in the end to validate the 1997 bogus map of Tigray. This is nothing short of a mega self deception that, if not corrected on time, will lead to a mega tragedy. The U.S can propose, but unlike God, cannot dispose.

Things should not have come this far. A containable minor border dispute deteriorated into a possible total war because of the incompetence and intellectual arrogance of the facilitators who were convinced they knew the region better than the inhabitants. The outlines of a peaceful settlement were within grasp. All Assistant Secretary of State Susan Rice had to do was to convince Ethiopia to agree to a timetable on demarcation of the border on the basis of colonial era treaties, as per the OAU Charter. If only Ethiopia had agreed to this, everything else would have fallen in place. Instead Ethiopian jet fighters bombed Asmara, and Susan rice flew to Ogoudougu to obtain OAU support for Ethiopia's position. A few days later, Ethiopian forces attempted to invade Eritrea from four fronts: Humera, Badme, Zalambesa, and Burie. The invasion failed. But Ethiopia's intent became crystal clear. What Eritrea thought was a minor border issue became something more menacing: an unsuccessful attempt to overthrow Eritrea's lawful government to replace it by a Vichy like government.

Nothing will destabilize the region more than any foolish attempt by TPLF to mess with Eritrea's sovereignty. Those who think they know the region more than the parties do are better advised to take note of a simple fact: in their desire to save a regime from itself, their unwise interference may plunge the entire region into a mega catastrophe in which innocent civilians will pay a horrendous price.

tekie