In best shape ever to win the war
Mobae Afeworki
19 May 2000 

Selam Dehai,
 
May be each one of us should do a little reflection:

Did we really think that this was a border war?
No, those of us that wanted it to be just that were pretending; those of us who believed otherwise, chose not to publicize our view; those of us
who couldn't figure out what is going on buried our heads in the sand. The smartest ones were praying for sanity to prevail in the Horn of Africa all along.

Did we trust too much?
Oh, yes, way too much! We trusted the God-condemned MaLeLiT; we trusted Clinton when he brokered the air-raid moratorium and when he
told the world that the OAU peace package was fair and balanced; we trusted Lake, Rice, Smith when they told us that they were "going to
convince and force the MaLeLiT to accept the OAU package" and "to hit them like a ton of bricks if they start the war, again".... And, one and all of them were too happy to screw us up.

Let's all get it once and for all, "ayntayom `ina!"

Back to the situation at hand: Are we losing territory?
Yes, we lost a few thousand square kms.

Are we losing troops?
Definitely, we have fallen heroes, we have POW's and MIA's. After all the only thing between our people and the invading army is our troops.

Has the military balance changed?
It doesn't look like it and I hope and pray that this impression of mine is true. We appear to be holding our own. Indeed, viewed soberly, the
withdrawal from Barentu, without a sever damage to our civilian population seems to be a masterpiece.

Are we down?
May be.

Are we defeated?
HELL, NO! Nobody can defeat us, until we believe we are defeated. Then and only then, all hell will break loose.

For now, let's not act surprised. We knew all along that the war had nothing to do with some village, be it Badme or Zala-Anbesa. It is simply a
continuation of Eritrea's right to self-determination. MaLeLiT "accepted" it in the years 1991-1993, not because it was convinced that Eritrea
deserves to be independent, but because it couldn't do anything about it. All of its officials said this and said it repeatedly.

What we should hope, pay, pray... for is for the military balance not to change. Let territories change hands, as long as we have our forces intact, we will prevail.
 
The MaLeLiT believes that they have the upper hand. Now, they think they have the power to crush Eritrea, to break its "spinal cord". And, after advancing several kms deep inside Eritrea, they are convinced that they will be able to do it. In fact, they are over-confident. This over-confidence will turn things around in our favor. That's why they are making a cardinal mistake of cornering a wounded tiger - and, a tiger is always a tiger. They will come to curse the day they ordered this invasion. The short end of it is that they have written off tens of thousands of soldiers to die needlessly and millions of people to starve to death. In the long run, we will win.

For now, our focus should be on how we can help our people. With so many displaced and only a few friends to help us, we have nobody but
ourselves.  Let's pray, let's pay, let's donate, let's appeal to our communities for help, wherever we are. Let's be foot-soldiers for raising funds for the emergency situation back home. Let's knock at doors, at prayer houses, to ask people to donate for the victims of war. Let's stop spending the few bucks that we have and contribute to help relieve the humanitarian crisis that has been brought up on our people. Above all, let's not act or believe that we are defeated.

WE ARE NOT DEFEATED. I genuinely believe that we are actually in the best shape ever to win this war. Our collective arrogance and
over-confidence has been shaken off of us; we have witnessed reality and we are now fighting for our lives. So far, in a week's time, we lost a
couple of battles, that is all. Again, the only way we will be defeated is, if we believe we are defeated.
 
And, we are not. A tiger is a tiger is a tiger.

Wounded? Maybe. Tired? Oh, yes. Defeated? Not even in a million years!

Weren't we praying and marching for peace, while preparing for the worst because, deep inside, each one of us knew that the war has nothing to do with the border?
 
Finally, whatever I said is not to boost the moral of our people or give false sense of security. I said them fully believing that they are true.
 
Mobae