The latest news concerning the drought and famine in Ethiopia are the same familiar stories outsiders are used to and that made the name Ethiopia synonymous with famine. In the mid-seventies, the World, along with the Ethiopian people, condemned Emperor Haile Sellassie as callous and uncaring when Ethiopian TV later showed him feeding pounds of red meat to his palace lions, this at a time when thousands of the people in Wello were reportedly starving to death. The fascist Dergue regime that overthrew the Emperor in 1974 was also condemned for attempting to hide, for political reasons, the later-on widely reported Ethiopian famine of the mid 1980s that is estimated to have killed a million Ethiopians in the northern part of the country, mainly the provinces of Tigray and Wello. The current regime, the Weyane, although far from hiding the present famine (they're actively soliciting food aid), nevertheless, is showing little regard for human suffering and is proving callous, both in the case of the drought and famine or in the war with Eritrea for using Ethiopian youth, as young as 14 years of age, as cannon fodder. Then, as now, the Emperor's and later the Dergue regimes were both fighting a war in Eritrea while tens of thousands of their people literally starved to death. Continuing the "tradition", the Weyane regime is preparing to re-ignite the war with Eritrea ensuring more death of the youth while again the poor peasants and the subsistent farmers starve to death, this time in the eastern part of Ethiopia.

The cynic might ask, "So, what else is new, ha?!" But, one must continue to ask the real question: how is it possible that a country, while almost 8 million of its citizens on the verge of starving to death continues to prepare for war that it can hardly afford rejecting a peace proposal it already claimed to have "accepted" fully? Why are the leadership of this country always so callous, so uncaring? Why? It is mind-boggling indeed.

Sovereignty, they love to cry out! The sovereignty of the country is at stake! The sovereignty of Ethiopia, the only country in Africa, they'd love to tell the world, that was never colonized in history. (By the way, technically, that is not entirely correct, for Ethiopia was colonized by Italy, albeit for a short time, from 1936-1941). Ethiopians are proud of that history. Fine, let us give them that. The current regime even invokes the 1936 plea by Emperor Haile Sellassie for action at the League of Nations (the predecessor of the United Nations) to condemn Italy for its aggression. Moreover, the current Weyane regime unashamedly likens that lack of action by the League of Nations in 1936 to that of the current border conflict with Eritrea today. He sounded so ludicrous when the Ethiopian Foreign Minister, Seyoum Mesfin, comparing the two completely different events in history, called for the condemnation of Eritrea as an "aggressor" in his 1998 address of the UN general assembly. Even his Ethiopian countrymen in the Diaspora were embarrassed. Although the Foreign Minister said it with straight face, the world was not going to accept such a ridiculous claim, rather it quietly laughed at him for his lack of the sense of history and his audacity to compare the incomparable. Grand claims were not the sole property of the Foreign Minister though, other Ethiopians (scholars, to boot) taking cue from the bombastic FM Seyoum Mesfin echoed the claim and compared and contrasted Ethiopia's "victory" at Badma in February 1999 to the famous battles of World War II and asserted that no such war in such a scale was fought anywhere ever since. Other writers compared it to Ethiopia's real victory over Italy at Adwa in 1896.

Alas, the only country in Africa that was never colonized also seems to be the only country that has been unable to learn from its history, recent or ancient. Recent Ethiopian history shows that its successive regimes lack the capacity to conduct war and win by themselves. Ethiopia always obtained outside help to win a war. In 1941 the British literally put Emperor Haile Sellassie back on his throne after defeating the Italians and kicking them out of Eritrea; in 1977 Russia and Cuba with the help of experts from other socialist countries including East Germany, Libya, and Yemen, helped the Ethiopians beat back the Somali Army which was knocking at the doors of the second largest Ethiopian city, Dire Dawa, after capturing the whole Ethiopian region of Ogaden and the strategic town of Jijga.

Now, in the 21st century, after bloody battles at Badma where the Weyane managed to push the Eritrean defense forces and capture the town of Badma, and at Tserona, where the Ethiopian army was annihilated leaving more that ten thousand dead Ethiopian soldiers, the Ethiopian regime is still preparing for more destruction. Ethiopia is again relying on numbers and said to be bragging about its "one-million-man" army. Furthermore, this time Ethiopia is said to have employed the services of the cash-starved Russians, North Koreans and other mercenaries. (It is fair to ask what good could these do for Ethiopia, even the Russians who were unable to capture the Chechen city of Grozny (hail to the Chechens!) in their back yard after more than three months of massive indiscriminate bombardment!)

Again, history gives no assurance to the minority Ethiopian regime that they will fare any better if they restarts the war. The Eritrean Army, although much smaller, is well prepared for them, much more motivated and much more disciplined. Their soldiers on the other hand are defecting en masse daily (more than 60 in January alone) to the Eritrean side, telling the world that the regime is again preparing for war and that the moral of the Ethiopian Army is very low. These are NOT good signs for the Ethiopian Weyane regime.

So, what makes the regime in Ethiopia think that they can win the war this time? It is anyone's guess. However, in combat if one is willing to sacrifice more and more of its human resources, one can indeed overrun and capture any strategic position of his enemy. That seems to be the Weyane strategy. If they are willing to sacrifice another 70 or even 10 thousand soldiers, they can overrun any strategic position. But the real question Ethiopians must ask is why should youth of Ethiopia must die when there is a peace plan that was designed to help both countries to get out of this quagmire?

What is the Weyane regime afraid of? The Ethiopian people? They should not if they have truth on the their side, as they claim. If Badma is theirs, it would be theirs when the border is demarcated. The same with other disputed border areas. However, the goal of the Weyane does not seem to be demarcation of the border. They stole land from the Ethiopian provinces of Wello and Gondar and incorporated it to their native Tigray, and they wanted to continue stealing from a sovereign country. Hence, the Weyane got caught stealing, and as they hit a wall going north they got furious and reacted typically irrationally. Wello and Gondar happened to be 'under their boots', but Eritrea is a sovereign nation. Thus, the reaction.

Paulos