Paul Henze: Wrong Again
by Saleh AA Younis
May 8, 2000
Like a monster from a B-movie who refuses to go away, the Ethiopian tyrants  chief melodist and Propaganda minister, Paul Henze is back to pour forth his  nauseating analysis. I know, I know, what you are thinking. Why waste your  time responding. Well, don't you know, he is still considered an expert on  the Horn of Africa by no less an authority than Madeline Albright's State  Department whose standard assessment must be if you claim to be an expert,  and you have a pulse, then you are an expert.

Dr. Henze has made it a hobby to grace us with his masterpieces and this  time, it is something called "Eritrea's War Against Ethiopia II." I don't  know if the "II" in the heading refers to the war or if he is intimating that  he had written, "Eritrea's War Against Ethiopia I." He also asks "Is There  an Exit Strategy" as if doesn't know. Yes, there is: it is called sign the  OAU peace agreements and implement them. But that is far too simple for a  world-class thinker like Dr. Henze so we must be subjected to his analysis.

First, we have to read about an interview he supposedly had with President  Isaias Afwerki on January 16, 1992. We know we can count on the content of  the interview because he took notes. He finds the president's speech  laudable. Since Dr. Henze is never in the habit of ever saying anything  remotely complimentary about Eritrea or its leaders, you know there is a  catch. First of all, if he found the president's comments so worthy and  laudable, and he had the notes to prove it, did he write anything based on  that interview between 1992 and 2000? If so, where? If not, why not?  He quickly moves on to the chronicle of "Eritrea: Bad Neighbor" where he does  the requisite, if minimal, characterization of Eritrea is the bogey man. We  should be grateful for small favors because Dr. Henze forgets from the litany  of Eritrea's sins its dispute with Sudan. Henze is notoriously anti-Islam  and anti-Arab so maybe he is giving us a break for picking a fight with Sudan.  Then comes the juicy part. We are told that after "he" (Isaias, of course,  who was at the time in Saudi Arabia) "attacked Ethiopia", "Ethiopia reacted  strongly but it refrained from mounting a counteroffensive for almost a  year." Now here, Dr. Henze, should perhaps consult with his colleagues at  the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry and the State Department. If you are going to  go to court to present your case and, if you are going to lie, it is best  that you synchronize the lie.

First, the whole reason that the State Department was rushing with the  US-Rwanda Plan was because Ethiopia had waged counter-offensive on May 22,  May 23 and May 25 and May 31 of 1998 in the Badme as well as the Aiga-Alitena  fronts.

Second, on June 1, 1998, the Deutsch Press-Agentur (DPA) reported the  following:

Ethiopia has recaptured about one third of the area in northwestern Tigray  province occupied by Eritrean forces, radio reports said Monday quoting  Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin. The Ethiopian army launched a  counter-offensive because Eritrea had not been prepared to agree to  international mediation, Mesfin said on Voice of America, adding that  Ethiopian forces had captured a number of Eritrean arms and soldiers. If  Eritrean forces failed to withdraw unconditionally from the disputed area,  Ethiopia's counter-offensive would continue, Mesfin said.

Now, even using the Ethiopian calendar, it is not "almost a year" between May  12, 1998 and June 1, 1998. Dr. Henze should note that around the same time  that the US mediators were pushing the US-Rwanda peace plan, his friends at  the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry were saying things like "Ethiopia will not  agree to international mediation in its dispute with Eritrea" and on May 27,  1998, his friends at EPRDF while celebrating their seventh month anniversary  were saying that Ethiopia had no choice but to "use force to eject Eritrean  troops."  The truth is this: Ethiopia, since its ill-advised declaration of war on May  13, 1998, has made innumerable offensives. All but one has resulted in  humiliating defeats; one has resulted in pyrrhic victory. Even the  celebrated "Operation Sunset" was not the "total victory" that the Ethiopian  government advertises; as the authoritative British magazine "Jane's Defense  Weekly" reports, Eritrea has reclaimed the strategic points of Badme and  reversed the so-called "total victory" in June 1999.

The rest of Dr. Henze's conjecture of Eritrea fracturing along religious and  ethnic lines is all wishful thinking to be expected from Ethiopia's  Propaganda Minister. It is prophecy we've heard since the 1940s and most  explicitly by another member of the Ethiopist "mutual confirmation Society",  Paul Ehrlich. Like every society on Planet Earth, Eritreans may disagree on  how their nation should be governed but I challenge Dr. Henze to find a  single Eritrean who thinks that (a) war is preferable to peace or conversely  that (b) peace at any price, including Ethiopian subjugation, is preferable  to war. The honorable way out is a negotiated peace that addresses the  concerns of both parties.

The State Department may continue to count Dr. Henze as an expert because,  among other things, he continues to write about the Horn, but it is long  past due for common Ethiopians to reject the poison advice of Henze who, at  every turn, encourages war by presenting Eritrea's military defeat as likely  if not inevitable.