Can the TPLF Resume War?

Can the TPLF Resume War?
Wed, 26 Jan 2000 12:56:30 GMT
Sesen Isaias

What is next in the Ethio-Eritrea conflict, and the subsequent so called "peace process"? is a question everyone of us have in mind. Many Eritrean and foreign observers consider the wave of questions for clarifications by the TPLF regime as time-buying strategy and refer to the purchase of military hardware as signals of an inevitable another offensive by the regime in Addis Ababa.

I don't agree with the above analysis, that the TPLF is now in a position to launch yet another offensive against Eritrea. I have three reasons.

First militarily, it is almost impossible to win in such a situation. If the commanders of the TPLF army have the wisdom, they had enough lesson and from military science they should very well know that they are no more in a position to gain anyway. The two sides have almost equal number of soldiers facing each other and fire-power. Taking the positioning of the two armies, the only strategy for the TPLF to start war is through frontal attack. Conventional military wisdom tells us that for a frontal or head-on attack to succeed against a well-entrenched opponent, the attacker must have at least a 3:1 advantage in fire-power, which the TPLF does not.
Second, the TPLF regime is now almost cornered in the diplomatic arena, and it can no more enjoy its phantom stories of accusing Eritrea starting the war. The current problem with the peace process is no more between Eritrea and Ethiopia, it is between Ethiopia and those who worked out the peace plan. If Ethiopia has anything it is not satisfied with, it is not Eritrea's problem. There is no reason for the TPLF regime now to open fire against Eritrea, which is waiting to go with the peace plan ahead. If the TPLF is now to start a fresh assault, it will be exposed to further and stronger economic and other sanctions, which the international community has already started to openly consider.
Third, internally the TPLF regime does not enjoy much support for its agenda of war, especially after it became clear that Eritrea has fulfilled its Third, internally the TPLF regime does not enjoy much support for its agenda of war, especially after it became clear that Eritrea has fulfilled its obligations in the peace process. People and opposition groups, including those close to the regime are asking why Ethiopia should not sign the peace deal. Such feelings are also prevailing among army members of the regime.

Then what is next? I think the TPLF regime is going to accept the peace deal, but in a way it can mislead the Ethiopian people. Finally the TPLF is going to declare to the Ethiopian people that it has accepted the peace deal because it has fulfilled its requirements, though in practice it does not. The regime is playing with words and phrases and that all is for domestic consumption..to say that it has worked all these time to make sure that Ethiopia's interest is respected. The long time passed is also hoped to help the TPLF fool the Ethiopian people, make the people some what forget the carnage of Badme and Tsorena. By raising fear and anxiety on the Ethiopian people high, it also hopes its acceptance of the peace deal to bring a feeling of relief among the Ethiopian people so that the regime can appear as champion of peace. That is all for domestic consumption, and the regime is paying high for such cheap strategy.