Eritrea's unexpected (to Ethiopia) acceptance of the modalities for implementation of the OAU Framework Agreement has unnerved official Ethiopia to the point of incoherence. The minority controlled government whose continuing existence rests largely on persecuting a wasteful war of its making, has no clue what it would do if the bloodshed stops tomorrow.

In Prime Minister Meles, Foreign Minister Seyoum and Speaker of the Parliament Dawit Yohannes, you have a group of men who are as frightened by the prospects for peace as a bat is afraid of sunlight. And if you read their statements carefully, you can see that they are embarked on a frantic search for a deal breaker to undo the Algiers Modalities. Actually they do not have to search far for the right deal breaker. They can resuscitate the same one they used to scuttle the near agreement on US/Rwanda fourteen months ago. A deal breaker then, can easily become a deal breaker now. Very easily.

A lot of people do not know that what killed US/Rwanda was not Eritrean "intransigence," but rather Ethiopia's non negotiable demand that Ethiopia knew Eritrea would not and could not accept. Eritrea had provisionally agreed to the return of Ethiopian civil administrators to Badme and its surroundings as Ethiopia had demanded, as long as demarcation would be completed within a specific schedule. Susan Rice was asked to take the counter proposal to Meles.

But then Ethiopia escalated the demand insisting that armed militia and security forces should be returned to Badme as part of the civil administration. Eritrea could not accede to this new demand, as the Ethiopians knew it would not. This was the deal breaker Ethiopia used to bomb Asmara on June 5, 1998. The rest is as we well know the sorry history of the last fourteen months.

The same deal breaker about the reestablishment of civil administration has returned. The same bellicose rhetoric that preceded the war fourteen months ago has reemerged. The sound and furry coming out of Addis is the more jarring because Ethiopia has been telling the OAU and the international community that it has accepted the Modalities.

Prime Minister is between a rock and a hard place. He can't admit to his people that Ethiopia has agreed to an unconditional cease fire, something Eritrea has been asking from day one. He did not want to explain to the people of Ethiopia why he sacrificed so much if in the end he planned to accept Eritrea's terms. He can't say no to the Modalities because the international donor community is breathing on his neck. Under his tenure Ethiopia has become a beggar nation, a ward of the international community. There's no shame for being poor--Eritrea is one; but there's unforgivable ignonimity in using alms for arms in the face of massive famine in the country's doorstep.

Not wishing to tell the truth to the Ethiopian people and the international community, Prime Minister Meles's government is resorting to the old and tried formula: always blame it on President Isaias and his government. This time it may not work. Eritrea is determined not to provide Ethiopia any excuse for continuing this sorry war. Eritrea will implement the Algiers Modalities. Ethiopia is telling the world that Eritrea does not intend to implement the Modalities, never mind the inconvenient fact that President Isaias has accepted the terms on the spot.

So what is going on ? The clue to official Ethiopia's state of mind and how it plans to scuttle the planning for the implementation of the Modalities is found in the July 20, 1999 Ethiopian Council of Ministers' reformulation of item 5 of the Algeries Modalities.

This is what item 5 of the Modalities said-word for word- on the question of the return of civil administration.

"The modalities for the re-establishment of the Civil Administration and population in the concerned territories shall be worked out after the cessation of hostilities."

This is how the July 20 Ethiopian Council of Ministers read item 5.

"the Modalities call for the withdrawal of Eritrea from Ethiopian territories that it had held by force, and the return of Civil Administration--the police and militia--to the territories."

The reformulated item 5 bears a scant resemblance to the original. Unless the Ministers are still reading from the so-called Campaore's May 8 letter, the modalities make no mention about the territories being Ethiopian, nor is there any reference to the police and militia anywhere in the entire OAU document.

The Council of Ministers has reintroduced the same deal breaker that scuttled potential agreement on a solution to the problem fourteen months ago. The reformulation of item 5 is intended to guarantee Eritrea's rejection, and hence justify the continuation of the war.

Not only the reintroduction of the deal killer, but also the rhetoric that preceded the bombing of Asmara has made a cameo appearance thirteen months later.

Prime Minister Meles On June 4, 1998

"I call on the people of Ethiopia to take all the actions necessary for the safeguarding of our country according to directives issued by organs of government and defense forces of Ethiopia..."

The Prime Minister's call to arms of June 4 was echoed by a similar call by the Council of Ministers of July 20, 1999.

"The Defense Forces must continue their unyielding effort to ensure that the sovereignty of our country are respected...the entire people of Ethiopia must redouble their efforts to enhance the significant contributions they have already made to respect of our sovereignty."

The same deal breaker and the same war rhetoric have reappeared. Unless both have been expressed as a form of collective therapy, one is hard pressed to be optimistic about the future of the Modalities, or for that matter for peace in the region.

Recent reports indicate Mr Anthony Lake is optimistic, and that he's making progress. This is good. But I hope one is not considered impudent to ask which version of the Modalities--the OAU's or the Council of Ministers-- Mr Lake is working from. It's possible that the Ethiopians have abandoned their rewrite of the OAU document and have joined Eritrea in staying with the original text. If this is the case the optimism is justified. If not, it's hard to see a way out of this accursed war.

Last time Prime Minister Meles introduced a deal breaker under similar circumstances, an indulgent US stood on the side lines, giving Ethiopia sufficient political space to invade Eritrea. An easily solvable border dispute was transformed into the world's biggest, and most devastating ground war.

One hopes the world has learned a lesson. Eritreans, however, are not holding their breath until the minority controlled government in Addis is ready to jettison its hegemonic fantasy, forever.