The minority controlled government in Ethiopia is at it again. True to form, it is talking with a forked tongue, about war and peace, all at the same time and in the same breath. The government and private press are spewing out red meat rehtoric about war, surely for domestic consumption, while Meles is pleading with the donor community to give Ethiopia more time to complete internal deliberation.
One assumes that the Septembr 4 and 7 statements issued by the Office of the Government's Spokesperson represent the governmant's position and its rejection of the OAU sponsored peace package. In clear and unambiguous language Ethiopia has rejected the Technical Arrangments on the ground that the document did not recognize Ethiopia's "sovereignty" over the disputed areas. The language could not have been any clearer. Ethiopia has rejected the Technical Arrangments, as written.
As soon as the rejection statments were out, Ethiopia sent behind the scene signals to the donor community that regardless what the statements had said, Ethiopia had not rejected the Technical Arrangements. What in God's name is going on ? When is a rejection not a rejection ?
The languages of defiance and possible compliance, simultaneously uttered in the same breath, were designed to elicit the impression that there were "doves" inside the government who are battling the "hawks" to get Ethiopia to sign. The donor community should not put pressure on Ethiopia to accept the OAU sponsored peace package as that would to undermine the "doves," seems to be the essence of the plea.
Dr Anthony Lake, who as a Special Envoy of the White House, spent more time in search of a peaceful resolution to the conflict, told the Boston Globe recently that Ethiopia had not conclusively rejected the peace package. He said Ethiopia would make its final decision soon.
If Ethiopia has not made a decision, then who put out the September 4 and 7 statetments ? Or is Dr Lake telling us, "Well forget what you read in the press, what counts is what Ethiopia is telling the donor community behind the scene"? These things do not add up. Specially when one considers that Ethiopia is talking peace and simultaneously preparing its public for war. What Ethiopia's leaders say in English, over the phone, is different from what they spew out in Amharic and Tigrinya over their airwaves.
The US is telling Eritrea to be patient; to give Ethiopia more time. But more time for What ? It's one thing if there were real doves there. But there aren't any in the Ethiopian cage. Some of the hawks my chirp like doves, or some of the hawks my have smooth feathers like doves,' but if you look closer they all have the same flesh tearing beaks and blood stained claws. They are all the same--all bloodthirsty hawks, waiting to pounce at the right moment--if given a chance. Surely, they must understand Eritrea won't give them one.
Eritrea has done everything it could for peace. It has compromised; and then compromised some more, to give peace a chance. But Ethiopia's leaders are not interested in peace since their political future is based on the continuation of the war. Right from the start the war has been about Greater Tigray's future; it has very little to do with Ethiopia's territorial integrity. As long as the war continues, the TPLF will continue to go after the dream of Greater Tigray at the cost of Ethiopian lives.
The TPLF has no interest in signing the Technical Arrangeents, now or tomorrow. It has every interest in buying time for the right moment to resume the war. The appropriate time to attack could be anytime-- next week, next month , or next year. The main point is to force Eritrea to use up scarce resources on national defence; to bankrupt the Eritrean economy which then make it easier for Ethiopia to attack and defeat Eritrea. This is the advise the TPLF has been getting from its inhouse strategic thinkers, the knownothing would be Kissingers, who have no clue what they are talking about. The shallowness of TPLF's "strategic thinkers" is their assumption that Eritrea will consent to be a sitting duck. Fat chance.
The minority TPLF government is the most coddled government there is. The West and particularly the US have indulged the Addis government's shennanigins to the point of continuing the war beyond its absurd limit. When Eritrea accepted the Frameworks last February, the West should have demanded of Ethiopia to reaffirm its acceptance of the package. Instead the West and the bunggling OAU looked the other way. The result was the horrific carnage at Tserona and Badme.
Blood has been spilled needlessly because those who fund TPLF's war machine through relief assistance have been stone deaf to the cries of mothers who will never see the faces of their children. One would think that decent people will now say Enough is Enough. This is their last chance. The OAU peace package and the Technical Arrangments the OAU, UN, US and Algerian experts have prepared must be accepted and implemented as soon as possible. If the TPLF government has said No to the Arrangments, then the international community must take appropriate measures. Iraq and Libya did not get away with flouting UNSC resolutions. Why Ethiopia ? Why the double standard ?
Let those who are telling us Ethiopia has not rejected the peace package tell us what steps they plan to undertake to persuade Ethiopia to accept the package, and if it reafirms its rejection, we need to know what they plan to do about it. Specifically we want them to drum into the heads of TPLF leaders that the Technical Arrangements are not subject to amendments. Ethiopia's latest demand of guaranteed outcome before the process works its way thorugh is laughable, unworthy of anyone's time and consideration.
The international community must give Ethiopia's leaders a deadline for making their position known. Eritrea cannot wait forever for TPLF's "doves" to convince the "hawks" in their ranks that peace is to everyone's interest. There are no "doves" in the bird cage. Anyone who thinks there are some is perpetuating a cruel and irresponsible joke on the people of the region. But one has to believe in miracles. And if there are "doves" they better act soon.
If the minority TPLF government reafirms its rejection of the OAU and UN sponsored packge after going on record that it has accepted it-- only to change its mind this month-- then the UNSC is duty bound to take appropriate measures. The OAU is also duty bound by previous UNSC resolutions to inform the Security Council that Ethiopia had rejected the package it once endorsed. The international comunity must convince the people of Eritrea that UNSC resolutions mean something, and that regardless how desparately poor Ethiopia is, the world will hold TPLF's leaders accountable for their refusal to live by civilized norms.
Ultimately those in the West who dragged this war and the subsequent carnage through their coddling of the TPLF government must step up, to stop this bloody war from claiming additional lives. President Clinton said seventy thousand have already perished. Isn't that enough? The UNSC has the power to stop this bloody war, if only it is prepared to act honorably and responsibly. It did so in Kosovo. It's doing it in E.Timore. Why not in the Horn of Africa? There's no need to intervene militarily. All that's required is to take a few well thought out economic measures to cripple the TPLF's war machine, to drive home an important lesson--that the international community will not tolerate any threat to peace and regional security, least of all from those on the dole, wards of the international community.