Selamat Dehai:
After Eritrea and Ethiopia accepted the Modalities to implement the OAU's Framework Agreement, the two parties were invited to send their delegates to work out the detailed plans to implement the Agreement. The plan was to have the delegates negotiate the details, agree on them and cap the session with a signing ceremony.
Ethiopia nixed the idea. After all, it would be hard to send delegates, negotiate a deal and THEN reject a proposal you had a hand in drafting. The Technical Arrangments, then, was worked out without the input of both parties.
The Eritrean president sent an envoy, Mr. Yemane Gebreab, to Algiers. At the end of the session, Mr. Gebreab stated that Eritrea had full confidence in the work of the OAU Chairman.
The alarm bells started ringing at the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
When the Technical Arrangements were officially presented to Eritrea, the Eritrean government did not ask for clarification, nor for a prolonged period to study the proposal. It promptly accepted the Arrangements.
Even louder alarm bells must have started ringing in Addis.
So Ethiopia assembled all its fault-finders to scrutinize the Arrangment. The logic being anything that my enemy likes cannot be that good. The fault-finders found the faults and the cracks and named them request for clarification and awaited for a slow response.
The response came quickly. This is the Arrangement; take it or leave it. Ok, said Ethiopia, we will leave it.
At this time, the OAU had the mandate to take the Arrangment, write a note: Eritrea accepted it; Ethiopia rejected it and stuff it down the in-box of the Security Council.
But, negotiators being negotiators, they said, ok, let's talk. After all, submitting the form to the UN means, "we give up." What do you want? We want full restoration of status quo ante. We want advance notice as to the precise areas from which Eritrea will withdraw. And we don't want peacekeepers, we want military observers."
The mediators could have said, "too bad; that's not part of the deal." Instead, they said, ok, let's talk some more. They talked and they talked and then they trekked to Asmara.
Oyahia said, "only we get to decide the makeup of the peacekeepers. But couldn't you, in the interest of peace, make some changes to the sequence? Instead of having ceasefire before the work of the Neutral Commission gets started can't we have the Neutral Commission start its work now? Could you give us a list of the areas you will be withdrawing from? We promise; we won't ask for more."
At this time, Eritrea could have said, "Sorry, Ouyahia, but we are going to stick to the Agreement we have accepted. We know from experience that the minute you start tinkering with it, it is an endless process. You know that Ethiopia will reject the list we will provide. And we know that the Neutral Commission cannot do its fact-finding session in a heavily-mined area. Even if the Neutral Commission does the job and comes up with a list, you know that Ethiopia will reject that list as well. Even if there is agreement on the "list", you know the Ethiopians will introduce one more request for concession. So spare us and yourself this agony and remain true to the Arrangement."
Eritrea didn't. It agreed to give the OAU a list of the areas it will be withdrawing from. And what will the Ethiopian response be? Choose one of the following:
Then Ouyahia will come back to Asmara with his new list. And Eritrea will say, now that we are re-negotiating the terms of the Technical Arrangments without having declared a cease-fire, can we at least get the observer group to observe the border and establish who will surely break the undeclared ceasefire? And Ouyahia will say, "our partners cannot really bring in the peacekeepers until there is a ceasefire. And you cannot have a ceasefire until Ethiopia approves the list."
As for the international community, if the TPLF were to literally piss on the Tech Arrangments then make a bonfire of the Tech Arrangements at Meskel Square, the international community would politely call on both parties to respect the Technical Arrangements. This Catch-22 is called being the neighbor of Ethiopia. It is frustrating but peace is worth the effort. The alternative is far worse.
Saleh