As they say, knowing the problem is half the solution. So what is the problem? What is exactly driving the Weyanes? Read all the articles the Waltanians have so far produced in response to Congressman Gilman. The first thing you notice is that all appear to be the output of a text generating software, and a bad one at that. They are distorted copies of the same text. They all bemoan that Ethiopian territories have been invaded and that Ethiopia is interested only in regaining its sovereignty. But what are these sovereign Ethiopian territories? They never say. But look at them in this map which appeared in the Economist in September 18, 1998.

If these are the disputed territories, the Weyanes are in trouble. For each of these patches of land belongs to Eritrea. No ifs and certainly no buts. You don't even need to produced evidence of treaties to prove your case. Take for example that little dip in the Bure area on the Aseb front. Now, why should it dip that way? It just makes no sense. Or again, look at the largest patch on the Badme front. Enlarge it as in the map below:

The Northern part of the areas they want is bounded by the Gash (Mereb) river. But look at the crooked line that connects the Setit to the Gash. On what basis did the Weyanes construct such a twisted line? Is it a river or a mountain range. I don't think so. And it is certainly not a straight line. All the six patches have this arbitrariness about them. The Weyanes were acting like a three-year old child that dips her fingers into a cake. The evidence is so obvious that your child would probably try to charm her way out of why she did it. But the criminal gang are willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of their men to cover-up their attempted larceny.

Suppose the Weyanes the peace package on the table (or for that matter, any peace deal to demarcate the borders) and go to arbitration. All these areas will be awarded to Eritrea. Therein lies the real problem. How can they agree to a peaceful conclusion of the conflict when they are even unable to identify the disputed territories? For the past five months, they have been tossing around in torment, desperately trying to delay the day of reckoning. The drama has even degenerated into a tragic farce with their insistence that Eritrea knows the areas it has invaded and must identify it for them. They have a monumental problem because they have a fraudulent case. By now, the mediators certainly know this. Asking the Weyanes to sign a peace deal that will eventually award the disputed areas to Eritrea is asking them to sign their death sentence. We are into this quagmire where a peace deal spells the demise of one of the protagonists because of their stupidity. They should have never manufactured that fraudulent map. They should have never escalated the war at every step of the conflict. They should have never involved their parliament to declare war on Eritrea. They should have never spoken in such uncertain terms about invaded Ethiopian territories. In short, they should have never boxed themselves in such a tight corner. But why did they do it? Can this clique be that stupid?

The script that people like Abay Tsehaie and Siye Abraha wrote was not supposed to proceed as it has. Their plan had two parts: First was the strategic decision to sacrifice their friendship with Eritrea in order to regain the legitimacy they lost in the eyes of the AmHaras. This was helped considerably when Eritrea decided to have its own currency. To implement their plan, they took a number of blatant acts -- like manufacturing a map -- solely designed to provoke Eritrea into a war which they had no doubt would be a cake-walk. As you recall, they were going to have breakfast in Senafe, lunch in DeqemHare and an evening stroll along Liberation Avenue the same day. The rest was simple mopping up. These are the Weyanes. Had it worked (and sitting in an "inda swa" in Mekele, there was no imaginable reason why it shouldn't) they would have been the undisputed rulers of Ethiopia for the 21st century; dictating and looting to their hearts delight.

So this is the problem. The issue for Eritrea is to demarcate the borders and move on. For the Weyanes, it is to ensure their survival. The stakes are indeed very high for them. So what is to be done? >From their point of view, the only option is to go to war, no matter what the consequence. That way, they figure they have a shot at salvaging something. They want the world to believe that the stakes are so high that they need to go to war. But nobody is buying that. The international community is telling them in clear terms that it will not tolerate that. And despite all the brave talk, Ethiopia today is a starving mess that cannot survive for a day without the good will of the international community.

Will they heed? Or will they risk international condemnation and start an offensive? It all depends on what their sophomoric (sorry sophomores) strategic thinkers tell them. But I think they have learned very valuable lessons from their mis-adventures of last year. With 70,000 dead and nothing to show for it, they know that a military confrontation with Eritrea is very risky. However you dice it, our military forces are far superior to theirs. And more importantly, they know it. If there is a war, the Eritrean forces may not just sit in their trenches. That is what Eritrean officials have been hinting. And knowledgeable sources assert that if the Eritreans do that, their superior mobility, flexibility, tactics and motivation will mean substantial defeat for the Weyanes. With an ill-trained force of would-be fenjiregatchs who know that they are nothing but cannon fodder, all that is required is one major defeat for the Weyane military to collapse. The only trouble is that the Weyane Generals, who have been promoted for last year's losses, may still think what is needed a few tens of thousands of fenjiregatchs to breach a wall.

But supposing they decide to go to war. Can a war be averted diplomatically? It can if the international community applies enough pressure. But it might not and probably will not. The OAU is pretending that their latest clarifications will assuage the Weyanes' fears. But how? The Weyanes are now openly declaring that they will not accept any peace deal that does not guarantee them sovereignty over the disputed territories. Will the OAU be bold enough and tell them that they have no sovereignty over the disputed territories and that they have already signed two documents which make it absolutely clear that sovereignty will be determined only after the border is demarcated? It might and probably has discretely done so. The trick for the OAU is to come-up with a face-saving formula for the Weyanes. But can it?

In all the twists and turns, the Weyanes have left themselves one way out. They have never told anyone what the disputed territories are. In addition, they have been claiming that Badme lies in the Yirga triangle. The sketch map posted at their Washington D.C. web site is clear about this.Map of Conflict Areas

So the question of Badme may be easily resolved as Eritrea is not claiming the Yirga Triangle. Tsorona cannot pose any problems for them as it is indisputably Eritrean. Alitena, Bada and the Bure dip may cause some problem but the the real problem, I think, is with Zalambessa. It is where they were publicly humiliated when their invading forces were defeated and driven back. Will the Eritrean government compromise and cede the town of Zalambessa to them? Should it? Could it? We will have to wait and see.

My prognosis is thus: There will not be a war. They would, of course, love to win a quick even if very dirty war just in time for their annual February celebrations. But will they risk it? I don't think so. One caveat though: Trying to predict what they might do is very risky. Never forget that they are the people who sent tens of thousands of their men to clear mine fields. In 1999.

warsay