"Our assumption is that over the next hours, at most, over the next twenty-four hours, that defense line will also totally crumble."-- Meles Zenawi, May 23, 2000.

What an extraordinary statement. According to Peter Biles, the BBC correspondent in Ethiopia, Meles was very exuberant when he made this assertion. And I doubt that there was a single diplomat in the audience who doubted it. Most of all, the BBC correspondent in Addis Abeba and his colleagues at headquarters were absolutely convinced of it. So much so, that they were all rehearsing their obituary to Eritrea on the air. Even Eritrea's claims to have repulsed the offensive and to have downed three mig fighters did not register as significant. I really feel sorry for Eritreans whose only source of news is the BBC. I spent the better part of yesterday talking, over the telephone, to many friends in an attempt to calm them not to take the BBC's prognostication seriously. It was not an easy task.

I am still at a loss how Meles could have misread the situation so drastically. He must have dreamt about it for the last year: to deliver the coup de grace to Eritrea on its independence day. That is probably the unforgettable lesson he wanted to teach us. We should have expected the Weyanes' desire for a victory over Eritrea to coincide with our independence day. There were analysts who expected the Weyanes to start this war in February because they (the Weyanes) think of February as their lucky month. Last year's human-wave assault to take Badme was timed to coincide with their Adwa victory. I don't know about you, but I find this penchant to plan wars to coincide with historical dates as primitive as their human-wave tactics.

But why did Meles expect Eritreans to oblige? Why did he expect them to play dead and allow him the luxury of an easy victory, a victory to be had in hours? Why didn't he wait the few hours for his fenjiregachs to complete the task before he announced to diplomats the demise of the Eritrean Defense Forces? He is probably intoxicated by the string of successes he had. It is as if the Weyanes have never heard of the expression, "quit while you are ahead." After seizing Barentu, I honestly expected them to accept a cease-fire and negotiate from a position of strength. But their hatred of Eritrea does not allow that kind of rational calculation.

They now have to deal with the consequence of their evil intentions. The migs are dropping down as snow does in winter. And take note that May 28 is the day they celebrate their victory over the Derg. How fitting if they were to suffer a crushing defeat on that day. Is Bouteflika's personal intervention today designed to preclude such an eventuality? I may be getting paranoid but I can't dismiss the idea that they are all in on it: the OAU, the US and the UN. They all knew what the Weyane intention was. That explains the extraoridnary silence of the UNSC even in the face of the massive displacement of hundreds of thousands of Eritrean civilians. It also explains how the UNSC resolution to ban arms sales to both sides conveniently forgot to include a demand for an immediate cease-fire.

warsay