Wars are easy to start, but difficult to stop. Once the logic of war is set loose, it becomes an uncontrollable monster. Survival in war time becomes a feat by itself, because unlike times of peace it cannot be taken for granted. It is not what you do or want to do as much as what the other party wants to do. In such situations, the only way to react to the enemy is in kind - return fire by fire. We have seen how the Weyane grabbed Eritrean territory and when Eritrea took its land back called it an invasion. They used this as a pretext to blockade Eritrea into submission and bomb Asmara, in short everything possible within their means. So far, the Eritrean government was in a reactive mode. It was simply repulsing their attacks. Obviously, the easiest way to bring a peaceful resolution is for the belligerent party, Ethiopia, to accept a cease fire and engage in the process prescribed by the OAU. However, to do so would mean (1) abandonment of their Greater Tigrai objectives (2) facing reaction and rejection from the Ethiopian people. Thus, one year after the start of open war between Eritrea and Weyane-mis-led-Ethiopia, the end is not yet in sight. We are not even at the plane where the end is to come.
I am presenting the analysis in two parts. Part I deals with the background and process of the conflict. Part II discusses the possible solutions.
Part I Background and Process of the Conflict
End of wars come with the attainment of strategic objectives of one or two sides to the conflict. Sheer exhaustion by the two parties can also lead to political solution. Eritrea is defending its territory and national sovereignty. It's objectives will be achieved the day Ethiopia agrees to demarcation of the border and stays on the other side of the border. The problem is with Ethiopia. The Weyane have mixed internal politics, their staying in power and Greater Tigrai ambition, with the conflict with Eritrea. For the Weyane to call it a success, they need to defeat the Eritrean army and control Eritrea. Ceding the territory claimed by Ethiopia may give Eritrea a respite, only to be followed by more demand. As statements from Addis Ababa, after the Weyane thought they were getting an upper hand in February indicate, their objective is to forcibly remove the present government in Eritrea, and reconfigure the administrative structure of the country on ethnic lines. Piecemeal absorption of Eritrea into Tigrai will follow next. Successive defeat in the hands of Eritrea may create a condition conducive for the military to stage a coup d'etat, or other ethnic groups, notably the Amharas and Oromos to seize power.
To give credit to the Weyane, they may be smart enough to realize that their days of dominance of Ethiopian politics are numbered. They have no acceptance by the Ethiopian people, especially the Amharas or Oromos, the two dominant groups in the country. In their typical "killing two birds with one stone" strategy, they wanted to promote territorial acquisition for Tigrai and get support from the Amhara by resorting to open conflict with Eritrea. As predicted, the gullible Amhara bit the bait, the rest started playing their own "killing two birds with one stone" game. Now, one year after the start of the war, initial reaction favorable to the Weyane is waning. The demand for the Weyane to relinquish power is as strong an issue as it ever was. My feeling is that, even if the war against Eritrea was to have gone in favor of the Weyane, non-Tigrean Ethiopians would still be asking for their pound of flesh - return power to the people.
Resistance by the Oromo liberation forces is escalating into a new phase. The change in leadership of the OLF, creation of a united front with Wako Gutu and his front herald tough times ahead for their enemies. The presence of strong Oromo fighting forces will embolden the Oromo people to support the movement. This will be the start of the cycle of repression and resistance that we witnessed in Eritrea and Tigrai during the Derg and Haile Selassie eras. Harsh measures by the government will lead to more Oromo youth joining the front. That is the day the Weyane will have to fold their tent and go back to Tigrai.
The charade of "constitutional democracy" was skillfully crafted as a window dressing for Tigrai dictatorship in Ethiopia. Foreign observers (Edmund Keller, for one) who tried to alert the world of the situation in Ethiopia were declared persona non-grata. The U.S, intent on using Ethiopia as a bastion for resistance to Islamic fundamentalism from the Sudan, was ready to be deceived. The presence of an ambassador that is a Rambo on the loose and pseudo intellectuals such as Paul Henze was icing on the cake of deception. U.S taxpayer money and funds from U.N organizations such as UNICEF is channeled though an NGO operated by Ethiopian-American agents. The money is used as slush fund for embassy officials and Ethiopian scholars hired to give intellectual credibility to the stand of the Ethiopian government and bolster its image.
The TPLF took power in Ethiopia while keeping the secession option open. To the extent possible, it will stay in the union and build the economy and infrastructure of Tigrai and lay the foundation for Greater Tigrai. Territorial expansion on which the Republic is to built is a pre-condition. Annexation of territory from Gondar and Wollo was part of this strategy. Attempt to take Eritrean land is a continuation of this move. The Ethiopian historian, Aleme Eshete has clearly put the whole process and its implications in a publication titled "The Republic of Tigrai According to TPLF" (Rome, July 1998).
"Now that the TPLF has embarked in anew direction of annexing Eritrean territory, is there an end to TPLF expansion or is this only ;the tip of the iceberg?" He continues, "The same MLLT (Marxist-Leninist League of Tigrai) authors of manifesto 1976 may be entertaining the dream of founding not only the Republic of Tigrai but the Republic of Tigrai-Tigregn by the union of Eritrea and Tigrai in spite of the strong opposition to such a union within Eritrea". So, the surreptitious intention of the Weyane has now become public knowledge.
Aleme Eshete sounds the alarm bell in his question "Is Badme and the present TPLF annexation a prelude to a bigger and bigger territorial claim at the expense of Eritrea? " He hits the nail on the head by stating that the war with the Weyanes is one of national survival for Eritrea. "The issue at stake is not, therefore, the 400 sq. kms. of stone as the "Badme Triangle" is said to represent, but the cancellation of the myth of "colonial borders" on which Eritrea's raison d'etre and survival rests. That is why the EPLF acceptance, wily nilly, of TPLF's new version of the Tigrai border incorporating Badme may in fact signify Addio-goodbye-Eritrea!".
Aleme Eshete shares his candid views about the "Birth of a new entity - the Republic of Tigrai Tigrign with its capital at Axum - signifies a reformulation of the ancient Axumite Christian empire with Tigrigna as the national language and the dissolution of Amharic.... We could also understand support of the imperialist camp to the TPLF's project of a Christian empire that will contain anti Western Muslim fundamentalism from the west (Sudan) and the east." Aleme asks the question of whether Meles's "Tigrai uber alles strategy supported by Western imperialism, with the 'Republic of Oromiya' - that is southern Ethiopia - programmed to serve as the agricultural feeder colony of the new maritime state extending over all the Red Sea coast. 'Addio Eritrea' and the birth of the new Republic of Tigrai-Tigregn with its capital at Axum will thus also signify 'Addio Ethiopia' and the end of the Ethiopian nation!! And hence, the accomplishment of the MLLT-TPLF mission!! That is also why at this point of Ethiopian history the struggle for the survival of Eritrea becomes paradoxically the struggle for the survival of Ethiopia!!"
Part II
The objective the Weyane are pursuing is the demise of Eritrea as an independent and sovereign country. This has proven to be a "khat (chat) dream". Even if agreement is reached on the "withdrawal and demarcation" process, chances are they will not allow demarcation to take place. The statements they have been making so far urge Eritrea to withdraw from Ethiopian territory it occupies. They don't even recognize the area as disputed territory. Thus, withdrawal from the border, without firm commitment on the part of the U.N to see the process through will amount to relinquishing Eritrean territory to the Weyane. This may as well be the beginning of a new phase of the war.
The new situation will enable Ethiopia to take all the tactically dominant ground. They will label any attempt by Eritrea to dislodge them from these positions as invasion of Ethiopia. The reaction of the impotent OAU and the moral eunuch Salim Salim is not difficult to foresee. Besides, taking advantage of their new position, they will be able to pursue their objective of destroying Eritrea with impunity. If they are magnanimous, they may offer peace for land -- take our land and leave us in peace.
For the Weyanes, withdrawal under the strict provisions of the OAU process will amount to accepting defeat. The demarcation process will show that the territory they have been claiming is Eritrean. Barring any mischief, these territories will be returned to Eritrea. Thus, the Weyane may try to subvert the process by claiming that "the territories were under Tigrai administration, irrespective of the treaty and map". This is their way of rejecting the "colonial borders". In fact, they may have made sure that some clauses of ambiguity are inserted in the OAU guidelines to give them such leeway.
Settlement of the war with Eritrea, in whatever fashion, is not going to change their status in Ethiopia. Sooner or later, the Amharas and Oromos (the rest of Ethiopia) will want to have majority rule in the country. Hence, the only viable option for the Weyane is secession from the union. A peaceful resolution at this stage falls short of giving them control of Eritrea, which is their primary goal.
The way things are, the Weyane, like their predecessor Mengistu, cannot live to see the resolution of the problem. Because they are the problem; they are the contradiction. Their very reason for existence is anathema to Eritrea. As they have candidly put it, it is either us or them. Mengistu had the Amharic expression "aTfina Tefi" (the destroyer and the victim). Eritrea has proven that it is not a pushover.
Only their removal from power will open the stage for a solution. The Ethiopian military may not be able to seize power and negotiate a peaceful settlement, because it is tightly controlled by the TPLF. That leaves the rest of the Ethiopian people with the potential and responsibility to end the war. When I say people, I am referring to the numerically dominant Amharas and Oromos. Together, they constitute close to 75% of the population. Lack of understanding between these two groups is the reason the TPLF has stayed in power up to now. The day the Amharas and Oromos reach some understanding will be the end of the Weyanes in Ethiopia. The question is how!
Recent statements by the Oromo liberation leaders Galasa and Wako Gutu indicate their preparedness to stay in an Ethiopia that guarantees democratic rights to the Oromos. The Oromos have the organization and military means to challenge the Weyanes.
The Amhara have neither the political organization nor the military power to challenge the Weyanes. However, they are a strong moral force and can get the organization and leadership if they embark on the right direction. The question is will they accept the Oromos as equal partners in running the country. To do so, they will need good leadership. If they can manage to get out of this vicious circle, they will play an important role in chasing out the Weyanes and the building of modern democratic Ethiopia.
Many Amharas try to avoid recognizing the Oromos as a separate entity by clinging to national level organizations. They disdain anything that has regional or ethnic connotations. Such an attitude may not be welcome by the Oromos, who have been cheated recently by the TPLF.
If the Amharas and Oromos coming together, there will not be an immediate solution to the Weyane problem. The Oromos will need time to militarily dislodge the Weyanes out of power. In the meantime, the Weyane will continue to launch successive offensives against Eritrea. That means we will have to be ready for a protracted war of attrition. If they are allowed the luxury of launching offensives whenever and wherever they saw fit, that is what they will continue doing. Losses will be limited to manpower and materiel. Like "Smokey Joe" Frazier, they will continue coming again and again, despite the blows they receive. Sooner or later they will need a coup de-grace.
Conclusion
The Weyane cannot afford to make peace. Success to them means defeating Eritrea and controlling it. Anything else, to be remotely acceptable to them, will have to contribute to this final objective. To this Eritrea is saying over your dead bodies.
Therefore, the onus for making peace and saving Ethiopia lies with the Ethiopian people, primarily the Oromos and Amharas. The day they get together and work out a joint program for running the country, the Weyane will be history. Such an eventuality is not difficult to expect. After all in Harar culture, what it amounts is Abadir and Kulubi to come together. As for the Weyane, the only option they will have will be to assume minority position and advocate for minority rights.