Statement of the Government of Eritrea
on a Senseless and Destructive War

The developments of the last two weeks will have important significance, not only in the history of the people of Eritrea but also in the history of the people of Ethiopia. It may also have a bearing on the norms and behaviour of the international community. As such, it warrants a sober assessment.

Is it possible to justify the turmoil and mindless destruction in the first place?

The people of Eritrea never harboured illusions on the mentality and intentions of the TPLF regime. This knowledge enabled them to confront and foil the previous offensives unleashed by the TPLF last year. No new secrets were revealed in the present and third invasion. But it did help in further accentuating the TPLF's objectives of naked aggression.

In this context, it may be appropriate and timely to revisit the intentions and objectives of the TPLF regime to refresh the memories of the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia, and the international community at large. Let us examine, on the basis of hard evidence, what the TPLF plan was in this third round of invasion.

Immediate and long-term objectives
The objectives of the invasion were to enter Asmara after "annihilating" the Eritrean Defense Forces; to install a puppet regime after subjugating the Eritrean people; to create a political climate of internal turmoil and civil strife; and to destroy the economy and infrastructure of Eritrea and render it a weak and fragile country. To this end, the TPLF undertook meticulous preparations complete with a political programme and hand-picked agents to lead a puppet government.

The objectives that the TPLF presumed would be achieved in Ethiopia as a result of its victory in Eritrea
The TPLF sought to instrumentalize the people of Tigray to serve as the primary tool of its policy. To this end, it conducted a campaign of deceit telling them that they are the main beneficiary of its adventurist policy. Its venomous propaganda stated: "People of Tigray, rise up in arms! It is now or never. If you subjugate the people of Eritrea, you will walk with heads held high in Ethiopia."

The message to the Ethiopian people in general (i.e., with the exception of the people of Tigray) would be: "we have consolidated our power which is invincible now, so either obey and submit to our authority or face demolition."

The TPLF also thought that it can usurp a five year electoral ticket and consolidate its political throne amid mayhem and through a rigged "democratic election."

The regional and global objective
The strategy was predicated on distorted logic, which read as follows: "The world believes in power. Thus, if we accomplish a de facto situation on the ground, nobody will bother us with notions of peaceful negotiations, demarcation, etc. We will not only be able to impose our wishes but we can always flex our muscles and be feared and revered. To show our muscles to the Arab World would especially grant us strategic influence and guarantees."

Time frame for implementing this comprehensive plan
The TPLF sought to capture Barentu during the first day of the surprise offensive and then proceed, by launching multi-pronged attacks, to reach and occupy Asmara on May 24 (to coincide with Eritrea's ninth independence anniversary). This would not only erase the independence day but enable the TPLF regime to declare "a great victory" to the international community and the Ethiopian people and make May 28 (the TPLF's assumption of power in Addis Ababa) a "double and glorious anniversary." The timing was not chosen in view of the 24 May independence anniversary in Eritrea and the 28 May anniversary of the downfall of the Mengistu regime in Addis Abeba alone. The month of May is the month of the short rains. The TPLF's invasion would thus disrupt and destroy the agricultural schemes in Eritrea to induce famine and hunger which would create, according to its convoluted logic, a conducive climate for subjugating the people of Eritrea.

This bellicose scheme was not kept secret from the diplomatic community. To queries on the ultimate objectives of the offensive, the TPLF responded: "This is not a border dispute. Our aim is to topple and get rid of the Eritrean government. Just be patient with us, we will deliver."

Have these objectives been achieved? What consequences did it entail? What about the future implications?
When the TPLF clique embarked on this scheme under the motto of "everything to the war front," they were apparently confident that they would realize their objectives according to the set timetable. To this end, they mobilized all human and material resources of the country, and even recruited over 250 mercenaries, particularly as pilots in the Air Force as well as in various combat roles in the Air Defense and other weapons systems.

A few days after launching the invasion the TPLF boasted that its "meticulous military plans have successfully achieved their strategic and tactical objectives." The TPLF even claimed that it has "destroyed 60% of the Eritrean Defense Forces."

The outcome of the war cannot be evaluated on the basis of a single confrontation and within a single day. Tactical advantages of one or two battles can not, by the same token, serve as a yardstick for predicting the final outcome of a total war. Similarly, seizing or abandoning territory will be gauged by the final outcome although it entails painful, even if short-term, humanitarian consequences. The main and decisive factor in war is the losses incurred on the enemy's human resources, which impact on its fighting capability. This is the only yardstick that can be employed to evaluate the success or failure of the TPLF's invasion.

In this regard, it does not require much analysis to conclude that all the political objectives that the TPLF sought to achieve have been totally frustrated. The TPLF has found this hard to fathom but it is fully aware of the debacle it has wrought on itself.

The setback in the TPLF's military plans is more severe than its political failures. True the TPLF may have controlled territory. But sovereign territory ultimately belongs, and will return, to its rightful owner. Temporary seizure of territory must therefore be associated with the ultimate political outcome. Moreover, when measured in military terms, territorial gain is not a factor that has precedence or importance over preservation of human resources. Thus, in spite of the early territorial gains which were seen as an advantage, the grave military fiasco that the TPLF suffered is the enormous losses--that defy explanation--that its army has sustained in their human wave assaults (full details will be made public soon). Although the TPLF is trying to hide the truth in a welter of hollow propaganda, the full extent of its debacle is well known to the TPLF leadership, to the army that took part in all the battles, and to the Ethiopian public in general. And, with time, the truth will become more evident.

As far as the people and Government of Eritrea are concerned, the outcome of war is assessed, primarily and ultimately, in terms of human losses. In this regard, the losses that we have sustained are few although this was unnecessary and could have been avoidable in the first place. But this is a price imposed on us. It is not a price we were willing to pay in pursuit of territorial aggrandizement. In any case, our ability to preserve our human resources has underscored the effectiveness of our military strategy enabling us to prevail in the end. We have equally managed to keep our material resources intact. The victory we have scored becomes all the more obvious when we take into account the fact that our defense forces succeeded in downing seven war planes to the loss of none on our side. Above all, the spirit of confidence demonstrated by Eritreans at home and abroad is a mark of our victory.

Undoubtedly the fact that tens of thousands of war displaced compatriots are currently facing problems is an issue of serious concern to us all. However, this is a price that we could not avoid in our efforts to safeguard our sovereignty.

In short, the TPLF's declared objectives have ended up in fiasco. This debacle will never be covered up, either through desperate acts of air raids or through lies and deception.

The failure of the international community to condemn Ethiopia's invasion, particularly the resolution adopted by the UN Security Council to apply mandatory sanctions on the victim of the TPLF's naked invasion, is a matter of utmost sadness to Eritrea. This appalling act of indifference is unjustifiable by any standards.

We recall the measures taken by the international community against Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait. To this day, Iraq is subjected to punitive air strikes. By deciding on mandatory sanctions against the victim of aggression, the Security Council is in effect saying, "countries facing boundary disputes may, after all, engage in acts of invasion against each other." This certainly sets a dangerous precedent, in addition to contravening international law.

The objective set by the TPLF has failed. On the contrary, the determination of the Eritrean people to ensure respect of their sovereignty has triumphed. The people and Government of Eritrea call upon the Ethiopian people to draw lessons from this painful experience and wage a united struggle to heal the consequences of the TPLF's adventurist policies. While appreciating the sympathy demonstrated by all those who cherish peace, the people and Government of Eritrea call on them to extend urgent humanitarian assistance to the victims of Ethiopian invasion.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Asmara, 30 May 2000