The Economist
March 13-19, 1999

 

With no television pictures to put the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea on the world’s agenda, it has tended to be dismissed as a minor affair. It is not. In four days of fighting at the end of February, it now seems that up to 40,000 soldiers were killed or wounded in the battle for Badme.

With both Ethiopia and Eritrea spending huge amounts on new weapons, many thought they would be fighting Africa’s first high-tech war. In fact, it turned out to be something of a first-world-war throwback, with human waves walking into banks of machinegun, tank and artillery fire. The Ethiopians, in particular, said one military observer, "have been prepared to accept casualty figures that are usually regarded as unacceptable in modern warfare."

Eritrea’s defenses on the Badme front had been thought impenetrable: the Ethiopian forces would find themselves running into a brick wall. They did, but they were prepared to sacrifice tens of thousands of men in an all-out bid to recapture Badme. After their initial forays were repulsed, the Ethiopians launched a barrage of air strikes from bombers, fighters and helicopter gunships. They then threw division after division at the Eritrean frontline. Eventually, the line buckled and the Eritreans were driven out of the Badme area. Ethiopia then claimed victory.

Eritrea, acknowledging defeat at least temporarily, announced that it would now accept the Organisation of African Unity’s peace proposals, which Ethiopia had endorsed in November. The OAU proposed that both sides withdraw from disputed territory pending adjudication, something that Eritrea had previously refused to do.

Initially, there was hope that Eritrea’s acceptance would lead to an immediate ceasefire. Ethiopia’s foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin, said that a de facto ceasefire would come into effect once the Eritreans signed up to the OAU plan. But now this all seems much less certain. Other voices in Ethiopia are calling for a knock-out blow or for the army to retake the disputed areas that Eritrea still occupies, especially near Zalambessa. Isolated skirmishes have already been reported along the disputed frontier.

Even if there is a lull in the shooting war, there are many bitter issues to be settled. These include demands for reparations and the cruel legacy from Ethiopia’s policy of mass deportation. Tens of thousands of Eritreans, many of whom had never set foot in Eritrea, have been deported. In addition, thousands of Ethiopians have returned home from Eritrea, complaining of maltreatment, although Eritrea vehemently denies having deported them. Both sides have armed rebels in each other’s country, storing up future trouble.