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Economist.com: The Economist explains: How the international community has failed South Sudan

Posted by: Berhane Habtemariam

Date: Friday, 16 February 2018

The Economist explains: How the international community has failed South Sudan

Too many countries turn a blind eye to this troubled young state

HOW to solve a problem like South Sudan? Regional peacemakers gathering in Addis Ababa over the past fortnight have struggled again to find an answer. Despite a succession of peace agreements and international resolutions (indeed the peacemakers may sign something this week), fighting in the world’s newest country has now entered its fifth year. It erupted in 2013 after President Salva Kiir (a Dinka) sacked his deputy, Riek Machar (a Nuer), pitting the country’s two largest ethnic groups against each other in a deadly struggle for supremacy. Since then fighting has taken place across multiple fronts, as rebel groups have mushroomed across the country. Nearly a third of the population have fled their homes and over 5m face hunger. IGAD, the east African bloc leading the peacemaking efforts, brokered a ceasefire in December. But the South Sudanese government, which has the stronger military force, shows little interest in meaningful compromise. And without the credible threat of tough sanctions or a comprehensive arms embargo, violations of the ceasefire have become the norm. UN peacekeepers are present in the country, but overstretched. Why has South Sudan become another study in the international community’s failings?

UN peacekeeping missions need a host government’s permission to operate. But South Sudan, a country still less than a decade old, is especially prickly about threats to its sovereignty. Its government has repeatedly obstructed the work of UNMISS, the UN’s $1bn-per-year mission in South Sudan. It has refused, for example, to allow it to send troops to stop massacres (often because it is the government that is carrying out those killings). Government troops have attacked and killed UN personnel, and even shot down two UNMISS helicopters. An additional 4,000-strong regional protection force sent to defend Juba, the capital, last August was delayed for months in part because of wranglings over the scope of its mandate. The government still refuses to cede it control of the city’s airport.

The UN, in principle, retains the right to impose its will by force should a government fail to protect its own citizens. But even relatively soft punishments like sanctions require consensus among its members, which in the case of South Sudan has been near impossible. Countries such as Britain expressed support for an arms embargo early in the conflict; America was more ambivalent. By late 2016 Washington had come round to the idea, but it failed to convince the rest of the UN Security Council, above all China (which has a substantial stake in South Sudan’s oilfields) and Russia. Both argue the UN must follow the lead of the African Union (AU). But there is little appetite for sanctions among South Sudan’s neighbours, not least in those countries, such as Sudan and Kenya, whose leaders have themselves been the subject of international sanctions or arrest warrants. Meanwhile South Sudan still has allies in the vicinity, in particular Uganda, whose president, Yoweri Museveni, has long been close with his South Sudanese peer, Salva Kiir. “Without their buy-in, punitive measures simply can’t happen,” says Ahmed Soliman of Chatham House, a London-based think-tank.

The government in Juba is losing diplomatic ground, though. America, which imposed a unilateral (though largely symbolic) arms embargo on February 2nd, may again call on the UN to follow suit when the council meets to discuss the crisis at the end of the month. Recent statements from the AU suggests growing sympathy for such ideas in Africa, too. But it is unclear whether there is a real sense of urgency. When fighting broke out in late 2013 it risked becoming a proxy war between, in particular, neighbouring Sudan and Uganda. Today the conflict is more contained and many governments in the region may be willing to turn a blind eye.


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