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ገጽ-መጽሓፍ፡ TPLF's new Ethiopia, Eritrea Strategy

Posted by: Berhane.Habtemariam59@web.de

Date: Wednesday, 19 December 2018

Watched some clips and audio recordings of the gathering of Weyane oldies in Mekele.


- They show symptom of wounded nationalism


- Although they are trying to display counter offensive posturing, they are still in defensive mode.


- They still lack strategic thinking. They don't have unifying leader. They are trying to supplement this deficiency by trying to recreate collective leadership that existed before Meles replaced it with strongman model. The core of the collective would be Sebehat, Seyoum, Getachew and Bereket. This might help them regroup in the short term, but cannot be long term solution. They are too old to understand or cope with problems of the new era. Even worse they will exacerbate the strategic leadership problem as they continue to overshadow emergence of new faces and brains.


- TPLF is done with EPRDF. Since it is no longer useful to them, they want to kill it.


- Despite the bravado, they don't want to go to war with federal or Amhara region. Their main strategy remains proxy war against ODP and ADP to destabilize regions they govern and federal institutions. Their proxy attack will extend to neighboring countries as well. They are good at this and it should be taken seriously as they will escalate the more they are cornered. But even if TPLF manages to destabilize the nation, it will never come to power again and destabilizing will only be its final goal and that which it can do for a limited time. Every Ethiopian prefers and is ready to die at this moment than going back to TPLF's dictatorship rule.


- On Eritrea their strategy is isolate Isaias by coopting the population and if they can the elite. But they don't want to fight him directly. In fact they are conflicted between begging him for mercy and continuing with harsh rhetoric.


- TPLF is getting ready to spit the last poison. But it is not a mortal threat. It is still on self-destructive path. Tactical pressure will be sufficient to help finish the task.

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