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(Janes.com) ​Eritrea's alleged seizure of disputed Djiboutian territory increases likelihood of miscalculation leading to military escalation

Posted by: Biniam Tekle

Date: Wednesday, 21 June 2017



Country Risk

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Eritrea's alleged seizure of disputed Djiboutian territory increases likelihood of miscalculation leading to military escalation

Chris Suckling - IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly
21 June 2017
   

Key Points

Eritrea's military deployments to the disputed Dumaira Mountains following Qatar's withdrawal are the first since a short-lived border skirmish with Djibouti in June 2008.
Eritrea is looking to counter-balance deepening economic and military co-operation between regional rival Ethiopia and Djibouti.
Border skirmishes involving artillery and small arms are likely as the UN takes a softer stance in the context of few impartial or willing bilateral mediators.

EVENT

Djibouti's foreign minister, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, alleged in a televised address on 16 June that Eritrean forces had occupied the disputed Dumaira Mountains, immediately after Qatar withdrew a 500-strong contingent of peacekeepers without notification on 14 June.

Qatar withdrew its peacekeepers from the Dumaira Mountains after Djiboutian president Ismail Omar Guelleh (pictured) downgraded relations with Qatar. (PA)

The Dumaira Mountains are located along the strategically important maritime shipping lane of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Eritrea's most recent incursion into the disputed region occurred immediately after Qatari peacekeepers withdrew without notice on 14 June. This is in breach of United Nations Security Council resolution 1862 signed in 2009, which prohibits military activity by Djibouti and Eritrea in the disputed region and authorised the deployment of Qatari peacekeepers. The resolution was passed to end a three-day border skirmish between Djiboutian and Eritrean forces in June 2008, in the context of Eritrean forces constructing fortifications on Djibouti's side of the disputed boundary. The skirmish was triggered when Djibouti misidentified Eritrean deserters as an assault force and engaged them with small arms. This prompted exchanges of artillery fire and the deployment of mechanised units, resulting in the death of 44 Djiboutian soldiers and 100 Eritrean soldiers. Under Qatar's mediation, both governments had taken confidence-building measures. For instance, on 18 March 2016, Qatari foreign minister Mohamed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani secured Eritrea's release of four Djiboutian military prisoners who had been captured during the June 2008 skirmish. Despite this, little progress has been made to resolve the boundary dispute.

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