Key Points

• UN Security Council “recognition” of lack of evidence and the end of Ethiopia’s Security Council membership in 2018 indicate sanctions are likely to be eased in the one-year outlook.
• The US may moderate its hardline attitude due to concerns over regional terrorism and Chinese expansion, further enabling the sanctions’ removal.
• Eritrea’s greater exposure is likely to embolden demonstrators to stage more low-level protests, following a rare protest of defiance in October

Event

The United Nations Security Council on 15 November voted to renew sanctions on Eritrea for another year, despite a UN report claiming there was no evidence of Eritrea’s support for Somali jihadist group Al-Shabaab, the original reason for the weapons and travel embargo.

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