Hailemariam’s resignation had in fact been expected for several months. Hailemariam was the handpicked successor of Meles Zenawi, the former strongman whose 17-year rule ended abruptly with his death from cancer in 2012. But he was a weak and undistinguished leader. His time in office has been marked by a deadly cycle of anti-government protests stifled only temporarily by a nine-month state of emergency. The prime minister is said to have tried to resign more than once over the past year, though colleagues persuaded him to stay in his post until at least this year’s party congress, which had been scheduled for March but is widely expected to be postponed until later in the year.
His departure has opened up a succession struggle within the coalition that has governed Ethiopia since it first seized power as a ragtag band of rebels in 1991. The EPRDF is a coalition of four ethnically-based parties that has long been dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which represents Tigrayans, who make up about 6% of the population. But the TPLF’s power is weakening. The Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation, which represents the largest ethnic group in the ruling coalition, was seen for years as a puppet of the TPLF. But under Lemma Megersa, its charismatic new leader, it has rebranded itself as a quasi-opposition party. It now wants to take the helm, backed by a belief among Oromos that it is their turn to have one of their own in charge. “The next leader must be an Oromo,” says Seyoum Teshome, an academic and blogger. “There is no doubt about that.”
In Oromia, and perhaps in Amhara, Mr Lemma is the clear favourite to lead the coalition. But this may not go down well with the other parties that make up the EPRDF. Some fret that a politician backed by Oromo nationalists will not protect minorities, a concern reinforced by a string of attacks on non-Oromos over the past year. Some say that the deputy prime minister, Demeke Mekonnen, an Amhara, or another southerner like Mr Hailemariam, should take over, at least until national elections are held in 2020.
Another option, which might satisfy at least some of those who feel it is time for Ethiopia to be led an Oromo, would be to appoint Workneh Gebeyehu, the foreign minister. But many in Oromia regard him as too close to the TPLF and the security services.
Hailemariam says he will stay in office until a successor is found. Whoever it is will face powerful headwinds. The new prime minister will need to satisfy the still unfulfilled demands of protesters, who want more democracy and to shake off what many see as domination by the TPLF, while preventing the break-up of the fragile ruling coalition. And he may face opposition from hardliners in the military and intelligence services, which have real clout in Ethiopian politics and are still dominated by Tigrayans. “Any meaningful change still depends on how these political developments reach the security apparatus,” says Hallelujah Lulie of Amani Africa, a consultancy based in the capital, Addis Ababa. “The deep state is still intact.”