Attack Zone: area where units conduct offensive maneuvers.[2]
The U.S. military intensified direct action operations against al Shabaab, which has disrupted the group’s offensive campaigns but has not changed where it operates. U.S. forces conducted over 50 airstrikes and accompanied Somali forces on dozens of counterterrorism raids targeting ORGANIZATIONal ShabaabAl Shabaab is al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia and operates p...al Shabaab camps and high-level commanders since March 30, 2017, when the U.S. administration declared Somalia an area of active hostilities.[3] The Somali National Army (SNA) has not held the terrain captured from al Shabaab in joint operations with African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces, however, which has limited the effectiveness of these efforts.[4] Al Shabaab holds territory surrounding the capital, Mogadishu, from which it coordinates complex attacks targeting the Somali Federal Government.[5] Increased counterterrorism pressure may have reduced the overall volume of attacks in Mogadishu, but the city is not yet secure.[6] Key al Shabaab sanctuaries persist in central Somalia, especially in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, and in southern Somalia in Bay, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Jubba regions. Al Shabaab is able to project force from Somalia and safe havens along the eastern border with Kenya to attack Kenyan security forces and soft targets in Kenya’s Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties.[7] U.S.-backed counterterrorism efforts will limit al Shabaab’s ability to conduct major offensive campaigns, but are not sufficient to defeat the group. Al Shabaab will also reestablish its presence in populated areas in Somalia should Somali security forces not backfill AMISOM forces during the planned drawdown beginning in February 2019.[8]
Characterizing al Shabaab’s regional operations:
- Mogadishu: Al Shabaab’s sanctuaries in the outskirts of the capital allow it to conduct occasional complex attacks on hard targets, like federal ministries.[9] The group adapted to security conditions by striking softer targets like district offices.[10] U.S. and Somali operations reduced the number of complex attacks beginning in November 2017. Al Shabaab’s tempo of assassinations, small-arms ambushes, and improvised explosive device (IED) attacks remains unchanged.[11]
- Southern Somali Coast (Lower Shabelle, Middle and Lower Jubba): The SNA cleared al Shabaab from positions along the coast between Mogadishu and Marka but have not held the area.[12] Al Shabaab fixed SNA and AMISOM units near Kismayo by attacking forward-deployed units repeatedly, including a June 8 attack on a U.S. forward operating base in Sanguni that killed a U.S. soldier.[13]
- Central Somalia (Middle Shabelle and Hiraan): Al Shabaab has a support zone along most of the Mogadishu-Beledweyne highway and conducts frequent attacks on SNA and AMISOM forces along this axis.[14] U.S.- and AMISOM-backed SNA operations cleared al Shabaab from positions north of Mogadishu, but SNA forces did not hold the areas.[15]
- Southwestern Somalia (Gedo, Bay, and Bakool): Al Shabaab maintains its historical attack zones around the regional capitals Garbaharey, Baidoa, and Hudur. It increased attacks on Baidoa after seizing a nearby district in June.[16] Al Shabaab expanded its support zone along the road between Luq and Dolow in Gedo near the Kenyan and Ethiopian borders, potentially providing a base of operations for future attacks in Ethiopia’s Somali region.[17]
- Eastern Kenya: Al Shabaab expanded its attack zones in rural Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties in eastern Kenya. Al Shabaab’s campaign in these counties is an economy-of-force effort. Al Shabaab has freedom of movement in the countryside, allowing it to intimidate populations, which erodes public trust in the Kenyan government.[18]
- Northern Kenyan coast: Al Shabaab maintains a base of operations in Boni Forest despite a three-year Kenyan military operation to clear the area.[19] It uses this base to prepare attacks in Lamu County and southern Garissa County. Al Shabaab’s IED campaign throughout the Kenya-Somali border zone has weakened Kenyan security forces.[20]
- Puntland: Al Shabaab conducts economy-of-force efforts to retain its base in the Galgala Mountains, which facilitates access to arms smuggling networks, by attacking Puntland forces along the highway between the administrative capital of Garowe and the commercial hub of Boosaaso.[21]
- Somaliland: Al Shabaab likely conducted its first suicide attack to assassinate politicians in Somaliland but did not claim the operation.[22]
[1] “FM 7-100.1 Opposing Force Operations,” Headquarters, Department of the Army, December 2004, http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/FM7-100.1%2804%29.pdf.
[2] “FM 7-100.2 Opposing Force Operations,” Headquarters, Department of the Army, December 2004, http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/others/amd-us-archive/FM7-100.1%2804%29.pdf.
[3] “Statement by Pentagon Spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis on U.S. Counterterrorism Operations in Somalia,” Department of Defense, March 30, 2017, https://dod.defense.gov/News/News-Releases/News-Release-View/Article/1135338/statement-by-pentagon-spokesman-capt-jeff-davis-on-us-counterterrorism-operatio/; Bill Roggio and Alexandra Gutowski, “Shabaab launches another attack on U.S. and partner forces,” Long War Journal, September 24, 2018, https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/09/shabaab-attack.php; Christina Goldbaum, “A ‘firefight’ in Somalia exposes weakness of Pentagon combat rules in Africa,” The Daily Beast, May 14, 2018, https://www.thedailybeast.com/a-firefight-in-somalia-exposes-weaknesses-of-pentagon-combat-rules-in-africa?ref=home; Conor Gaffey, “Why is Trump sending more U.S. troops to Somalia?” Newsweek, April 19, 2017, https://www.newsweek.com/us-troops-somalia-donald-trump-al-shabab-586004; and “Al Shabaab leader Ahmed Diriye’s son & 11 others killed by U.S. forces,” Radio Dalsan, March 12, 2018, https://www.radiodalsan.com/en/2018/03/12/alshabaab-leader-ahmed-diriyes-son-11-others-killed-by-us-forces/.
[4] Jordan Indermuehle, “Al Shabaab area of operations in Somalia: October 2017,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, October 17, 2017, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-shabaab-area-of-operations-october-2017; and “SNA, AU troops launch new anti-al Shabaab offensive,” Garowe, August 11, 2018, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-sna-au-troops-launch-new-offensive-against-al-shabab.
[5] Matthew Cassidy, “Al Shabaab’s Vehicle-Borne IED Campaign: January 2017-March 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, April 13, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-shabaabs-vehicle-borne-ied-campaign.
[6] Matthew Cassidy, “Al Shabaab’s Vehicle-Borne IED Campaign: January 2017-March 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, April 13, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-shabaabs-vehicle-borne-ied-campaign.
[7] Mark Mwithaga, “2 killed after al Shabaab ambush bus heading to Garissa,” Kenyans.com, September 14, 2018, https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/33130-2-killed-after-al-shabaab-ambush-bus-heading-garissa; and “Suspected al Shabaab militants kill five soldiers in Kenya’s Lamu: county official,” Reuters, August 8, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-security/suspected-al-shabaab-militants-kill-five-soldiers-in-kenyas-lamu-county-official-idUSKBN1KT26D.
[8] “Unanimously adopting Resolution 2431 (2018), Security Council extends mandate of African Union Mission in Somalia, authorizes troop reduction,” United Nations, July 30, 2018, https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sc13439.doc.htm; and “AMISOM and UNMAS pledge to work together to counter threat of IEDs in Somalia,” African Union Mission in Somalia, September 11, 2018, http://amisom-au.org/2018/09/amisom-and-unmas-pledge-to-work-together-to-counter-the-threat-of-ieds-in-somalia/.
[9] “More than a dozen die in Mogadishu car bomb attack,” Africa Times, July 8, 2018, https://africatimes.com/2018/07/08/more-than-a-dozen-die-in-mogadishu-car-bomb-attack/; “Twin car bomb blasts near Villa Somalia leave 8 dead,” Radio Shabelle, July 14, 2018, http://radioshabelle.com/twin-car-bomb-blasts-near-villa-somalia-leave-8-dead/; and Matthew Cassidy, “Al Shabaab’s Vehicle-Borne IED Campaign: January 2017-March 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, April 13, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-shabaabs-vehicle-borne-ied-campaign.
[10] “Parts of Mogadishu streets locked down,” Radio Shabelle, August 27, 2018, http://radioshabelle.com/parts-of-mogadishu-streets-locked-down/; and Abdi Guled, “6 dead in blast at district headquarters in Somali capital,” Associated Press, September 10, 2018, https://www.apnews.com/c829267d53be405abdfd0f6bbef59e02.
[11] “Gulf of Aden Security Review: September 17, 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 17, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-september-17-2018.
[12] “Somali Army liberates coastal locations in Mogadishu,” Radio Muqdisho, September 18, 2018, http://23.251.131.121/player/video.php?storyid=323472759&encryptid=wqs09ycj2gkzbnxp5dmft8h4r6v713; and “Somali Army in major operation to open Mogadishu-Marka roads,” Goobjoog, September 25, 2018, http://goobjoog.com/english/somali-army-in-major-operations-to-open-mogadishu-marka-roads/.
[13] “Gulf of Aden Security Review: June 11, 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, June 11, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-june-11-2018; Harun Maruf, “12 killed as al Shabaab attacks Somali military base,” Voice of America, July 23, 2018, https://www.voanews.com/a/somalia-s-al-shabab-says-it-storms-military-base-kills-27-troops/4494676.html; and “Military movement underway in Lower Jubba region,” Radio Shabelle, July 24, 2018, http://radioshabelle.com/military-movement-underway-in-lower-jubba-region/.
[14] “Al Shabaab claims killing 4 soldiers in IED blast near Beledweyne,” Radio Shabelle, December 6, 2017, http://radioshabelle.com/al-shabaab-claims-killing-4-soldiers-ied-blast-near-beledweyne/; and “Two Somali lawmakers killed in al Shabaab ambush,” Jowhar News, June 6, 2018, https://www.jowhar.com/english-news/two-somali-lawmakers-killed-in-al-shabaab-ambush.html5.
[15] “Somali forces raid al Shabaab targets north of Mogadishu,” Mareeg, August 7, 2018; https://mareeg.com/somali-forces-raid-al-shabaab-targets-in-north-of-mogadishu/; Harun Maruf, Twitter, September 9, 2018, https://twitter.com/HarunMaruf/status/1039039699195764737; “Somali special forces capture al Shabaab bases in southern region,” Xinhua, August 7, 2018, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2018-08/08/c_137374388.htm; “An intense airstrike reported in al Shabaab-held area in southern Somalia,” Radio Shabelle, October 3, 2018, http://radioshabelle.com/an-intense-airstrike-reported-in-al-shabab-held-area-in-southern-somalia/; and “Al Shabaab fighters seize town in central Somalia,” Jowhar News, June 2, 2018, https://www.jowhar.com/english-news/al-shabaab-fighters-seize-town-in-central-somalia-residents.html5.
[16] “Al Shabaab seizes strategic town near Baidoa,” Garowe, June 7, 2018, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-al-shabaab-seizes-strategic-town-near-baidoa; “Shabaab claims killing 20 soldiers in ambush on Kenyan soldiers in Lamu County,” SITE Intel Group, August 29, 2018, English translation available at ent.siteintelgroup.com; “Somali Army forces engage al Shabaab militants in multiple offensives in Baidoa, southwestern Somalia,” Strategic Intelligence, August 27, 2018, https://intelligencebriefs.com/somali-army-forces-engage-al-shabaab-militants-in-multiple-offensives-in-baidoa-southwestern-somalia-s-i-situation-report/; and “Four killed as Somali forces clash with al Shabaab,” Mareeg, June 11, 2018, https://mareeg.com/four-killed-as-somali-forces-clash-with-al-shabaab/.
[17] “Al Shabaab captures strategic area from Jubbaland forces,” Horn News 24, July 29, 2018, https://www.hornnews24.net/al-shabaab-captures-strategic-area-from-jubba-land-forces/; and Emily Estelle, “Testimony: Ethiopia’s strategic importance: U.S. national security interests at risk in the Horn of Africa,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 12, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/testimony-ethiopias-strategic-importance-us-national-security-interests-at-risk-in-the-horn-of-africa.
[18] Manase Otsialo, “Al Shabaab militants raid Komor Haile mosque, preach for hours,” The Nation, May 25, 2018, https://www.nation.co.ke/counties/mandera/Al-Shabaab-militants-raid-mosque--preach-for-hours/1183298-4579638-b1nafu/index.html; and “Gulf of Aden Security Review: September 14, 2018,” Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, September 14, 2018, https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/gulf-of-aden-security-review/gulf-of-aden-security-review-september-14-2018.
[19] Nancy Agutu, “Security chiefs launch ‘Operation Linda Boni’ forest to flush out al Shabaab,” The Star, September 11, 2015, https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2015/09/11/security-chiefs-launch-operation-linda-boni-forest-to-flush-out-al_c1203531.
[20] Francis Muli, “Plight of the GSU: all Armoured Personnel Carriers destroyed by IEDs,” Kahawa Tungu, August 29, 2018, https://www.kahawatungu.com/2018/08/29/all-armoured-personel-carriers-destroyed-ieds/; and “Police discover al Shabaab hideout in Boni Forest,” Standard Media, September 2, 2018, https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001294247/police-discover-al-shabaab-hideout-in-boni-forest.
[21] Abdiqani Hassan and Feisal Omar, “Al Shabaab captures strategic town in Somalia’s Puntland,” Reuters, July 20, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-security/al-shabaab-captures-strategic-town-in-somalias-puntland-idUSKBN1KA1OH; “Somalia: Al Shabaab reportedly overran Puntland military base,” Garowe, June 2, 2018, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/puntland/somalia-al-shabab-reportedly-overran-puntland-military-base; Mohamed Olad Hassan, “Authorities in Somalia’s Puntland region tout capture of weapons-laden boat,” Voice of America, September 23, 2017, https://www.voanews.com/a/authorities-in-somalia-puntland-region-tout-capture-of-weaponds-laden-boat/4041481.html; and Khristopher Carlson, “Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: Somalia,” Small Arms Survey, October 2016, http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/H-Research_Notes/SAS-Research-Note-61.pdf.
[22] A militant detonated a suicide vest in Buhoodle, killing two politicians. The suicide attack is an al Shabaab signature and one of the targets had defected from an al Shabaab-aligned militant group. Al Shabaab did not claim the assassination, which would be its first in Somaliland. “Suicide bomber kills 2, including minister in Buhodle,” Garowe, August 1, 2018, https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/somalia-suicide-bomber-kills-2-including-minister-in-buhodle; “Former Khaatumo President accuses Somaliland of killing two officials in Buhoodle,” Puntland Mirror, August 2, 2018, http://puntlandmirror.net/former-khaatumo-president-accuses-somaliland-killing-two-officials-buuhoodle/; and “Somalia’s international partners gravely concerned over clashes near Tukaraq, call for ceasefire,” United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, May 24, 2018, https://unsom.unmissions.org/somalia%E2%80%99s-international-partners-gravely-concerned-over-clashes-near-tukaraq-call-ceasefire.
