DANGER IN THE HORN OF AFRICA, INDIFFERENCE IN FOGGY BOTTOM
By: Tex Manchester
May 25, 2005
At her Senate confirmation hearing, Secretary Rice stated, "the time for diplomacy
is now." Particularly in the Horn of Africa, she could not be more correct.
International news media have been slow to pick up on what Africa watchers in
the defense and intelligence community agree could prove to be a humanitarian
catastrophe and a setback in America's global war on terror.
In his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee earlier this year,
CIA director Porter Goss highlighted the Horn of Africa as one of the current
and projected national security threats to the United States. Goss pointed out
that "in Africa, chronic instability will continue to hamper counter-terrorism
efforts and pose heavy humanitarian and peacekeeping burdens. ...Unresolved
disputes in the Horn of Africa - Africa's gateway to
the Middle East- create vulnerability to foreign terrorist and extremist groups."
In 1993, Eritrea finally succeeded in its long struggle to cease being a colony
of Ethiopia's and gained independence. But as you can see from the new map,
this landlocks Ethiopia and blocks its access to the Red Sea:
From 1998 to 2000, a bitterly fought border war between the Horn states of thiopia
and Eritrea claimed some 100,000 lives and displaced more than one illion people
from their homes.
Following international mediation efforts, the Algiers Peace Agreements rovided
a solution for the underlying border dispute by an independent ommission, the
Ethiopia Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC). Both Ethiopia nd Eritrea agreed
to accept the Commission's verdict as final and binding. he EEBC's decision
was announced in April of 2002. Ethiopia, however, going ack on its original
commitment to be bound by the Algiers Agreements, alled the verdict "totally
illegal, unjust and irresponsible" and refused o implement it as it stands,
calling rather or dialogue to adjust the
decision.
Eritrea on the other hand has accepted the final and binding EEBC decision nd,
adhering to the Algiers Agreement and the pertinent UN Security Council esolutions,
is calling for unconditional and expeditious demarcation of the order. As Ethiopia
refuses to do just that, the peace process is in a angerous crisis.
Some in America's foreign policy environment, however, appear relatively nconcerned
by the prospect of renewed hostilities, as in fact no meaningful olitical pressure
has been brought to bear on Ethiopia, which clearly is in on-compliance with
its obligations under the peace deal. On the contrary, thiopia was singled out
as one of only four countries worldwide to benefit rom US AID's new Transition
Initiative Accounts providing huge sums of fast oney with a limited degree of
Congressional oversight.
As money is fungible, observers note that both sides are buying weapons on he
international market. Almost no measures are being taken to insure that ur assistance
is not used to fuel this conflict. The rationale that is ometimes put forward
is that Ethiopia must be appeased and accommodated ecause it is unstable and
that it cooperates with the U.S. on ounter-terrorism matters. If Ethiopia was
pressured to implement the border ecision, it is said, it might experience political
unrest and may refuse ounter-terrorism cooperation in the future.
This typical State Department appeasement-speak is deeply flawed. First and
remost, it overlooks the fact that the threat of war grows with every day hat
the physical demarcation of the border is postponed.
As you are reading this, 300,000 Ethiopian fighters are pitched astride the
order from 200,000 Eritrean soldiers, separated by less than 4,000 UN eacekeepers
(a mission that incidentally costs taxpayers almost $200 illion per year). Half
a million heavily armed men facing each other with ate-filled eyes and itchy
trigger fingers. Even a minor incident could park all-out war.
The choice then does not appear to be one between a relatively stable status
uo and potential protest and political unrest in Ethiopia. The choice ather
seems to be between disastrous war and demarcation. If the past is ny indicator,
resumption of fighting would cause tens of thousands of casualties, displace
millions of people from their homes and potentially turn the entire region into
a lawless quagmire similar to neighboring
Somalia.
It is hard to overstate how devastating this scenario would be to America's
anti-terrorism efforts in the region and the amount of human suffering it would
involve. By contrast, some internal political protests in Ethiopia against its
government for honoring its commitment under the peace agreement and implementing
the EEBC's decision seems a small price to pay for regional peace and security.
The national security interest of the United States calls for the demarcation
of the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. What is more, border demarcation would also
enable both these US allies to demobilize their forces, concentrate their limited
resources on economic development and trade, normalize bilateral relations and
move on with the democratization process which has suffered serious setbacks
in a climate of national emergency and impending war.
Congress should insist on adherence to its call for compliance with the Algiers
Agreements, and the Bush Administration should make it clear to our Ethiopian
friends that we expect them to stand by their commitment and emarcate the border
in accordance with the EEBC's decision. In other words, hat is called for is
"a time for diplomacy" for real, not a usiness-as-usual Foggy Bottom inertia
driving the region into the abyss of
war.