Date: Thursday, 10 October 2024
In August 2024, the African Union Peace and Security Council approved the formation of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), a move later endorsed by the United Nations Security Council. AUSSOM, the third AU-led mission aimed at stabilizing Somalia, is scheduled to take over from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025. This mission comes at a critical time for Somalia, which has faced internal conflict, economic instability, and security threats from militant groups like Al-Shabaab since 1991.
Somalia continues to struggle with a range of security, political, and economic issues. Despite multiple international interventions, the country faces ongoing threats from Al-Shabaab, which retains control over many rural areas and has demonstrated its ability to strike major cities, including Mogadishu. A deadly attack in August, which resulted in thirty-two civilian deaths, highlights the group’s persistent danger.
The Somali Federal Government (SFG) also grapples with asserting control over autonomous regions like Somaliland and Puntland. These areas have continued to resist the authority of the central government, further complicating efforts to stabilize the nation.
Moreover, recurring droughts, combined with decades of conflict, have left nearly 7 million Somalis in need of humanitarian aid.
ATMIS is scheduled to fully withdraw by December 31, 2024, leaving Somalia's security in the hands of the Somali National Army (SNA). However, concerns persist regarding the SNA’s capacity to handle the growing security threats, as the army remains underfunded and underequipped. AUSSOM is expected to take over and continue the stabilization efforts but faces its own challenges, including potential funding shortfalls.
Without sufficient preparation, the transition between ATMIS and AUSSOM could create a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab may exploit. The scenario of an Afghanistan-style collapse poses a credible threat to the conflict-fatigued country, a concern also expressed by neighboring countries, emphasizing the need for continued international support to prevent this outcome.
Somalia’s long history of instability has prompted multiple peacekeeping missions, starting with the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in 2007. AMISOM was instrumental in pushing Al-Shabaab out of major cities, but the group maintained control over vast rural areas. Also, AMISOM has not taken the lead in addressing Somalia’s core issues: a political crisis marked by disputes over governance structures, a lack of reconciliation, and multiple interconnected armed conflicts driven by various factors. In April 2022, AMISOM transitioned to ATMIS, which aimed to hand over security responsibilities to Somali forces gradually.
Despite some successes, ATMIS struggled with funding issues and failed to meet its objectives fully, primarily due to a lack of international support. AUSSOM is now expected to pick up where ATMIS left off, but concerns over similar funding problems loom.
Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is driven by its strategic interest in maintaining regional stability and countering terrorism. Instability in Somalia, especially if Al-Shabaab gains more ground, poses a direct threat to Egypt’s interests, including its control over the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Additionally, Egypt is wary of a scenario similar to Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban, where a security vacuum would allow Al-Shabaab to establish an Islamic State in Somalia, with consequences extending to neighboring countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
Egypt has expanded its role in Somalia’s peacekeeping efforts by signing a military cooperation protocol. Through this protocol Egypt is supplying weapons, equipment, and training to bolster the Somali National Army (SNA). Egypt aims to help Somalia fill the security vacuum left by ATMIS’s withdrawal and prevent Al-Shabaab from gaining further ground. In addition, Egypt committed troops and military support to (AUSSOM)
Egypt has a long history of involvement in peacekeeping missions across Africa and globally. Egypt is one of the largest troop-contributing countries to the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions. Egyptian peacekeepers have been deployed in conflict zones like the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Sudan. This engagement underscores Egypt’s role as a stabilizing force in Africa, committed to maintaining peace and security across the continent.
While Egypt has positioned itself as a stabilizing force in Somalia, Ethiopia’s role is more contentious. Ethiopia has a long history of involvement in Somali affairs, which Somali and Egyptian leaders often view as expansionist. The most recent point of tension is Ethiopia’s involvement in Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia that declared independence in 1991 but is not internationally recognized.
In 2018, Ethiopia entered into a port development agreement with Somaliland for the strategic Port of Berbera, bypassing the Somali Federal Government. This move has been criticized as an infringement on Somali sovereignty, and it has increased tensions between Ethiopia and both Somalia and Egypt.
Furthermore, Ethiopia has been accused of using its military presence in Somalia to further its own interests rather than contributing to peace and security. The SFG has repeatedly called for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from key Somali regions, citing concerns that Ethiopia’s actions could destabilize the region further.
The issue between Egypt and Ethiopia is not Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea. Ethiopia already has access through its agreements with Djibouti, just as other landlocked countries in the region have similar deals. For example, Uganda and South Sudan use Kenya’s ports, while Burundi and Rwanda access Tanzania’s ports. Egypt has not contested Ethiopia’s access via Djibouti.
However, the core concern for Egypt and Somalia lies in Ethiopia’s involvement with Somaliland, an unrecognized, self-declared independent region of Somalia. Both the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and Egypt view this as a direct challenge to Somalia’s territorial integrity. Ethiopia’s dealings with Somaliland, particularly its port agreement in Berbera, are seen as part of a broader strategy to undermine the SFG and weaken Somalia’s sovereignty. This has serious implications for the stability of the entire region.
Furthermore, Egypt’s dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is not about the dam itself or Ethiopia’s right to development. Rather, the issue stems from Ethiopia’s refusal to agree to a legally binding framework for the filling and operation of the dam, which is critical to ensuring Egypt’s water security and protecting its rights under international law.
Egypt’s policy in Somalia can be summed up as “speak softly but carry a big stick.” While Egypt continues to engage diplomatically with regional actors, it maintains strong military ties in Somalia, both through its contributions to AUSSOM and bilateral defense agreements. This approach serves as both a deterrent to external threats and a means of maintaining Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Egypt’s involvement is also a reflection of its broader geopolitical strategy in the Horn of Africa. The Red Sea is a critical shipping lane, and any disruption caused by instability in Somalia could have severe economic consequences for Egypt. As such, Egypt has a vested interest in ensuring that Somalia does not become a safe haven for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab.
As Somalia transitions from ATMIS to AUSSOM, the challenges it faces are significant. The withdrawal of ATMIS, if not carefully managed, could lead to a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab is poised to exploit. Egypt’s involvement in Somalia, through both peacekeeping efforts and military support, highlights its commitment to ensuring regional stability. However, Ethiopia’s actions in Somaliland complicate efforts to maintain peace in the region, as its expansionist policies threaten Somali sovereignty.
Egypt’s strategy of combining diplomatic engagement with a robust military presence reflects its long-term goals of ensuring peace and security in Somalia. With ongoing international support, AUSSOM has the potential to stabilize Somalia and prevent it from becoming a hotbed for extremist groups. However, sustained efforts will be necessary to ensure that the Somali National Army can effectively take over the country’s security responsibilities in the long run.
Through its contributions to peacekeeping and its strategic support to the Somali government, Egypt has positioned itself as a key player in shaping the future of Somalia and the Horn of Africa as a whole.
*Mohamed Farid is a member of the Egyptian Senate and a founder of the Liberal Club in Cairo.
*Mohamed Maher is an Egyptian journalist and researcher based in the United States and a former participant in IVLP's exchange program sponsored by the State Department.
*Image: Mr Root / Shutterstock.com.
